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We have seen some wild upsets this season already on the PGA Tour. Chris Kirk at the Sentry Tournament of Champions (200-to-1), Grayson Murray at the Sony Open (350-to-1), the first amateur to win on Tour since 1991 in Nick Dunlap at the American Express (300-to-1), first-time winner Matthieu Pavon at the Farmers Insurance Open (150-to-1) and Wyndham Clark posting the best score in Pebble Beach’s rich history to claim the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Despite these surprising victories serving as clear proof that anyone can win any tournament, I’m throwing all of that out the window and declaring there are only 9 guys who can win this week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open. Let’s dive right in.
1. Scottie Scheffler
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Current Official World Golf Ranking: 1
2023 Finish at WM Phoenix Open: 1st
As the two-time defending champion and #1 player in the world, it’s far from a bold proclamation saying Scheffler can win this week’s tournament. As has been the case for close to two years, it all comes down to putting for the Texas native. If Scheffler is even above average across four rounds, he is borderline unstoppable. If he doesn’t go back-to-back-to-back, I can assure you it’ll be due to numerous missed putts inside 8 feet.
2. Jordan Spieth
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Current Official World Golf Ranking: 16
2023 Finish at WM Phoenix Open: T-6th
It may be hard to believe, but it’s been almost two years since Jordan Spieth’s last victory on Tour (2022 RBC Heritage). With two top-10 finishes in the last three years at this event, Spieth looks primed to finally break through. With a knack for making magic happen, is there anyone more likely than Spieth to make a hole-in-one on the world famous 16th hole? The answer is no. Spieth will be in the hunt come Sunday.
3. Max Homa
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Current Official World Golf Ranking: 8
2023 Finish at WM Phoenix Open: T-39th
Coming off a disappointing performance at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (T-66), Homa will look to rebound at a course where he has only finished top 10 once in five tries. Although the past results haven’t been too promising, the six-time PGA Tour winner is due for a big week. Known as one of the funnier/more relatable players on Tour, few golfers have the charisma to pump up the crowd quite like Homa. Much like Rickie Fowler in 2019, it’s easy to picture the fans going wild en route to Homa capturing his seventh win on Tour.
4. Justin Thomas
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Current Official World Golf Ranking: 19
2023 Finish at WM Phoenix Open: 4th
It’s been a bumpy 18 months for Justin Thomas, but the controversial Ryder Cup selection certainly seems back on track to his old self. Coming off back-to-back top-6 finishes, the fiery Thomas is returning to a place where he has finished top-10 four of the last five seasons. And much Like the aforementioned Homa, few golfers on Tour enjoy pumping up the crowd on hole 16 more than Thomas. With his game trending in the right direction and long overdue for a victory (last win was May 2022), Thomas is primed to grab his 16th career PGA Tour victory.
5. Sam Burns
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Current Official World Golf Ranking: 20
2023 Finish at WM Phoenix Open: T-6th
Despite currently being ranked #20 in the world, there might not be five other golfers on the planet as talented as Sam Burns. The Louisiana native already has four PGA Tour victories (and one World Golf Championship), and he looked primed to add a fifth PGA victory at The American Express last month with only two holes to play (double bogeyed 17 and 18). He then bounced back with a solo 10th place finish last week at Pebble Beach, and is returning to a course where he finished 6th last season. Simply put, don’t be surprised if he’s holding the trophy on Sunday.
6. Sahith Theegala
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Current Official World Golf Ranking: 22
2023 Finish at WM Phoenix Open: T-39th
As a rookie two years ago, the world was introduced to Sahith Theegala at the 2022 WM Phoenix Open. Firmly in the hunt heading to the 71st hole, Theegala’s back-breaking bogey on 17 ultimately left him one shot back of eventual winner Scottie Scheffler. Although victory managed to escape him the rest of his rookie year, he finally captured his first victory last season at the Fortinet Championship. Since then, he has found himself in the mix constantly, and you know the 2022 heartbreak is some added motivation.
7. Rickie Fowler
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Current Official World Golf Ranking: 29
2023 Finish at WM Phoenix Open: T-10th
There isn’t another golfer in the field with a more extensive history at this tournament than Rickie Fowler. The fan favorite finished as the runner-up in 2010 and 2016 before finally capturing the title in 2019. After a few down years, 2023 served as a huge bounce-back season for Fowler, and he looks primed to add a few more victories to his resume. Playing at a course that he knows all too well in front of fans who adore him, I’m expecting Rickie to fully be in contention.
8. Wyndham Clark
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Current Official World Golf Ranking: 6
2023 Finish at WM Phoenix Open: T-10th
Coming off what may end up as the 2024 PGA round of the year with a record-breaking 60 at Pebble Beach, Wyndham Clark enters Phoenix with plenty of confidence. Known for being a long-ball hitter (15th in driving distance), Clark is a much more well-rounded iron player (29th in strokes gained: approach) and putter (33rd in strokes gained: putting) than most people give him credit for. Coming off a tie for 10th in 2023, expect Clark to be among the final groups on Sunday.
9. Cameron Young
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Current Official World Golf Ranking: 24
2023 Finish at WM Phoenix Open: 64th
Zero career PGA Tour victories and finishing third worst among guys who made the cut in the 2023 WM Phoenix Open doesn’t seem like the best recipe for a victory. However, avid golf fans know just how much talent Cameron Young possesses. At 26 years old, he already has two top-five finishes in majors, suggesting his first PGA victory is only a matter of when, not if. The 2022 WM Phoenix Open was where Scottie Scheffler finally broke through with his first victory. It would not surprise me in the slightest if Young followed the same script in 2024.
