30. Paxton Lynch (26th Overall, 2016 — Broncos)
Stats: 792 yards, 4 TD, 4 INT, 76.7 rate, 1-3 record
2016 was a time when offenses were shifting across the league. Teams were looking for the next, athletic quarterback following the breakouts of Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick. At Memphis, Lynch dazzled with good mobility and a rocket arm. With Peyton Manning retired and Brock Osweiler bolting for Houston, the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos used their first-round selection on Lynch.
It was an unbridled disaster. Heading into his rookie campaign, Lynch lost the starting job to a 7th round pick — Trevor Siemian — during offseason training camp. Lynch would go on to start just four games for the Broncos over the next two years, and hasn’t appeared in an NFL game since 2017. Lynch now plays for the Houston Roughnecks of the XFL. He was benched in the team’s first game of the season.
Image Source: USA TODAY Sports
29. Johnny Manziel (22nd Overall, 2014 — Browns)
Stats: 1,675 yards, 7 TD, 7 INT, 74.4 rate, 2-6 record
Johnny Manziel went from a relative unknown to a household name after a memorable 2012 Heisman winning campaign. The historically woeful Browns took a chance on Manziel in the first-round of the 2014 NFL Draft, despite obvious concerns in his profile. Needless to say, the pairing did not work out. Manziel was prone to mistakes — both on and off the field. His erratic style of play did not translate at all in the NFL, as teams were able to easily stifle Manziel as both a runner and passer. Manziel made eight starts and was out of the league in just two seasons.
Image Source: USA TODAY Sports
28. Josh Rosen (10th Overall, 2018 — Cardinals)
Stats: 2,864 yards, 12 TD, 21 INT, 61.1 rate, 3-13 record
Rosen entered the league under fairly unfortunate conditions. The former UCLA star was drafted to a Cardinals team which was set for failure. Rosen’s first head coach — Steve Wilks — was fired after just one season and replaced by Kliff Kingsbury. With the first overall pick in hand, Arizona selected Heisman winner Kyler Murray just a year after trading up in the draft to take Rosen. Arizona traded Rosen shortly after the draft.
Since then, Rosen has played for Miami and Atlanta, and has also made stops in Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Cleveland and Minnesota. While he hasn’t performed to the level of a first-round pick, Rosen’s continued ability to find NFL work says the league still sees a glimpse of potential in the 26-year-old.
Image Source: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
27. Dwayne Haskins (15th, 2019 — Commanders)
Stats: 2,804 yards, 12 TD, 14 INT, 74.4 rate, 3-10 record
Dwayne Haskins wasn’t given much of an opportunity to showcase his skillset in the NFL. The former Ohio State signal caller was taken 15th overall in 2019 by a dysfunctional Washington organization. It took just two years for Washington move on from their first-round pick. Haskins found a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Shockingly, Haskins died in 2022 after being hit by a truck. He was just 24 years old.
Image Source: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
26. EJ Manuel (16th Overall, 2013 — Bills)
Stats: 3,767 yards, 20 TD, 16 INT, 77.1 rate, 6-12 record
EJ Manuel was the only hurler taken off the board in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft. The Florida State product started 10 games as a rookie and struggled (like most first-year quarterbacks do). The major red flag was waved when Manuel was benched in his second season in favor of an aging and limited Kyle Orton. Things got worse when Rex Ryan took over the Buffalo head coaching spot and named Tyrod Taylor as starter. Manuel would start just eight games over his final four seasons. He last appeared in an NFL game back in 2017 for the Raiders.
Image Source: USA TODAY Sports
25. Zach Wilson (2nd Overall, 2021 — Jets)
Stats: 4,022 yards,15 TD, 18 INT, 70.9 rate, 8-14 record
It may feel a bit unfair to have Jets QB Zach Wilson ranked this low on the list. After all, the 23-year-old just completed his second season. Quarterbacks can take time acclimating themselves to the level of play in the NFL. However, the early results for the No. 2 overall pick in ’21 have not been encouraging. Wilson’s poor play has led to Jets fans clamoring for fifth-round pick Mike White or an almost 40-year-old Joe Flacco. Thus far, Wilson has shown to be inconsistent, inaccurate, and lacking fundamentals. New York tried to simplify its offense last year to accommodate its young QB, but to no avail. With Aaron Rodgers possibly coming to town, Wilson could be looking at a reserve role for the foreseeable future.
Image Source: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
24. Blake Bortles (3rd Overall, 2014 — Jaguars)
Stats: 17,649 yards, 103 TD, 75 INT, 80.6 rate, 24-49 record (2-1 playoffs)
While he hardly lived up to his draft status, Blake Bortles enjoyed a handful of good moments throughout his playing career. In Year 2, Bortles threw 35 TD — second in the league — and for 4,428 yards. While his play dipped over the next years, Bortles did help lead the Jaguars to an AFC Championship appearance in 2017. The following season would be Bortles’ last in Jacksonville. Bortles officially announced his retirement in 2022, though he hadn’t appeared in a game since the ’19 season.
Image Source: USA TODAY Sports
23. Sam Darnold (3rd Overall, 2018 — Jets)
Stats: 11,767 yards, 75 TD, 47 INT, 78.2 rate, 21-34 record
Sam Darnold has been given multiple chances to prove he’s a starting quarterback in today’s NFL. Unfortunately, the former USC product has yet to answer the call. Following three seasons with the Jets, Darnold was squeezed out of New York and landed with the QB-needy Carolina Panthers. No real signs of development materialized, as Darnold continued to struggle under pressure and turn the ball over at a high clip. Darnold recently signed with the San Francisco 49ers — a haven for QB play. We’ll see if offensive guru Kyle Shanahan can repair the former No. 3 overall pick.
Image Source: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
22. Teddy Bridgewater (32nd Overall, 2014 — Vikings)
Stats: 15,656 yards, 75 TD, 47 INT, 90.5 rate, 33-32 record (0-1 playoffs)
It appeared the Vikings struck gold by drafting Teddy Bridgewater with the last pick of the first round in the 2014 NFL Draft. Bridgewater got off to a hot start in Minnesota, instantly winning the starting job and leading the Vikings to the postseason in Year 2. Disaster struck when Bridgewater later suffered a torn ACL during a practice — sidelining him for nearly two years. It’s been a long road back, though Bridgewater has settled into being one of the top backups in the league today.
Image Source: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
21. Mitchell Trubisky (2nd Overall, 2017 — Bears)
Stats: 11,904 yards, 68 TD, 43 INT, 86.4 rate, 31-24 record (0-2 playoffs)
Following a season in Buffalo serving as Josh Allen’s backup, Mitchell Trubisky got his second chance as a starter with the Pittsburgh Steelers. It went about as expected. In Year 6, Trubisky remains a limited QB who is no longer starting caliber. He’s capable of throwing a nice “go”-route every now and again, but he doesn’t make the consistent plays a team needs from their starting quarterback. Unfairly or not, Trubisky will always be compared to Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson — two quarterbacks who were taken after Trubisky during the 2017 NFL Draft.
Image Source: Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
20. Marcus Mariota (2nd Overall, 2015 — Titans)
Stats: 15,656 yards (2,012 rush yards), 92 TD (17 rush TD), 54 INT, 89.3 rate, 34-40 record (1-1 playoffs)
What could have been of Marcus Mariota’s career had the QB stayed healthy? The former Heisman Trophy winner at Oregon had all the traits teams are looking for in a franchise quarterback — athleticism, accuracy, and intelligence. Mariota could make plays through the air or on the ground, but his confidence was zapped following a series of lower body injuries. We saw what he was capable of in a starting role with the Falcons last year. Atlanta posted one of the league’s worst pass offenses — likely a result of HC Arthur Smith lacking faith in Mariota to push the ball downfield. Mariota has now entered the veteran backup stage of his career.
Image Source: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
19. Carson Wentz (2nd Overall, 2016 — Eagles)
Stats: 22,129 yards, 151 TD, 66 INT, 89.3 rate, 46-45-1 record (0-1 playoffs)
Carson Wentz’s days as a starter are seemingly over. The No. 2 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, Wentz was with the Philadelphia Eagles for five seasons before the team opted to hand the franchise over to Jalen Hurts. Wentz then joined the Colts, where he enjoyed a relatively strong season until unraveling down the stretch. Joining his third team in three years, Wentz reached a deal with the Commanders — and the pairing did not end well. Following his release this offseason, Wentz will likely have to show teams that he’s willing to accept and embrace a backup role if he wants another shot at playing QB.
Image Source: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
18. Jameis Winston (1st Overall, 2015 — Buccaneers)
Stats: 21,840 yards, 139 TD, 96 INT, 87.5 rate, 34-46 record
We haven’t seen much Winston over the last few years. The former No. 1 overall pick has started just 10 games since joining the Saints three seasons ago. Major injuries have cost Winston each of the last two seasons. It also seems to have cost him his starting job, as the Saints went out and inked former Raiders QB Derek Carr to a massive deal this offseason. Following the news, Winston restructured his contract to stay with the Saints — accepting a backup role as a result.
Image Source: USA TODAY Sports
17. Mac Jones (15th Overall, 2021 — Patriots)
Stats: 6,798 yards, 36 TD, 24 INT, 89.0 rate, 16-15 record (0-1 playoffs)
Mac Jones is a player who could be ranked higher on this list. The former Crimson Tide QB was the fifth quarterback taken in the 2021 NFL Draft. Surprisingly, Jones enjoyed NFL success earlier than his peers, putting together a strong rookie campaign which ended in a playoff berth for the Patriots. Instead of building upon his first year, Jones massively regressed in Year 2 and even lost his starting spot to fourth-round pick Bailey Zappe at one point. Jones finished towards the bottom in nearly every major passing category, and will have to bounce back quickly if he wants to make it work in New England.
Image Source: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
16. Baker Mayfield (1st Overall, 2018 — Browns)
Stats: 16,288 yards, 102 TD, 64 INT, 86.5 rate, 31-38 record (1-1 playoffs)
Things turned south in a hurry for Baker Mayfield in Cleveland. After a strong rookie campaign, Mayfield failed to develop into the player the Browns envisioned when they selected him first overall in the 2018 NFL Draft — ahead of future superstars like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. While Mayfield is equipped with a strong arm, he’s been highly prone to turnovers over his career. The 27-year-old signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this offseason — Mayfield’s fourth team in three years. Likely the replacement for Tom Brady, Mayfield will have a chance to live up to his lofty draft status.
Image Source: USA Today Sports
15. Jordan Love (26th Overall, 2020 — Packers)
Stats: 606 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT, 79.7 rate, 0-1 record
Projected Packers starting quarterback Jordan Love serves as a sort of bridge between these rankings. The players who have already been listed are all limited in some way. They’re either low-end starters, backups, or completely out of the league. The remaining pool consists of superstars and solid starters who would assuredly get another crack at a starting role if their current team got rid of them for any reason. Love is the unknown commodity. The only thing we do know about Love is that he couldn’t beat out Aaron Rodgers for a starting spot in Green Bay. Of course, that doesn’t tell us much, but Love should be Green Bay’s starter with Rodgers likely bolting elsewhere this offseason. Love has shown glimpses of talent, but we’d like to see it over a full season.
Image Source: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
14. Trey Lance (3rd Overall, 2021 — 49ers)
Stats: 797 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT, 84.5 rate, 2-2 record
Lance is in the same category as Jordan Love, but comes with a bit more pedigree as a former No. 3 overall pick. The 49ers invested a heap of draft capital when they traded up in the 2021 NFL Draft for the chance to take the North Dakota St product. After sitting for an NFC Championship representative in Year 1, Lance was set to take the reins in San Francisco entering the 2022 season. Lance lasted just one full game (which took place under horrid weather conditions) before his season was cut short due to a broken ankle. There isn’t enough to assess Lance just yet. Though his return will certainly be analyzed to great lengths after seventh-round pick Brock Purdy flourished in Lance’s absence.
Image Source: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
13. Kenny Pickett (20th Overall, 2022 — Steelers)
Stats: 2,404 yards, 7 TD, 9 INT, 76.7 rate, 7-5 record
The Steelers believe they have their QB for the future in former Pitt Panther Kenny Pickett. Pickett wasn’t always a shoe-in to be the first quarterback selected in the 2022 NFL Draft. Through just one season, Pickett has shown why he was selected ahead of his peers. The rookie showed exquisite poise down the stretch, engineering multiple game-winning drives for a Steelers team that nearly snuck into the postseason after a 2-6 start. While his overall numbers aren’t great, Pickett improved immensely over the course of the season. Over his last six games, Pickett notched six TDs to just one INT.
Image Source: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
12. Justin Fields (11th Overall, 2021 — Bears)
Stats: 4,112 yards (1,563 rush yards), 24 TD (10 rush TD), 21 INT, 79.7 rate, 5-20 record
While some of the players listed lower may have Fields trumped in traditional passing stats, Chicago’s young quarterback is an absolute gamechanger who still has plenty of room to grow. In his second year with the Bears, Fields proved capable of carrying an offense (almost) single-handedly. Chicago finished first in rushing yards thanks to Fields’ playmaking ability. In one of the greatest rushing seasons ever for a QB, Fields (1,143 yards, eight TD) virtually matched Lamar Jackson’s MVP campaign (1,206 yards, seven TD) in terms of ground production. Now, Fields has plenty to prove as a passer, but he was plenty good at that during his time at Ohio State. It’s only a matter of time until he shows that skillset in the NFL.
Image Source: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
11. Tua Tagovailoa (5th Overall, 2020 — Dolphins)
Stats: 8,015 yards, 52 TD, 23 INT, 95.0 rate, 21-13 record
Tagovailoa has faced a tumultuous start to his career. Though he has shown promise, injuries and an unstable organization have threatened his development. In Year 1, Tagovailoa was benched several times in favor of veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tagovailoa’s sophomore season was mired by several ailments including a fracture to a finger on his throwing hand. Last season got off to a great start — Miami won its first eight games that Tua started and finished — but was once again derailed by a series of gruesome head injuries. Health is now a major concern dating back to Tua’s days at Alabama. And, he will likely always be compared to the two other top QB’s from his class — Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, who both seem to be a few steps ahead in their careers currently.
Image Source: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
10. Daniel Jones (6th Overall, 2019 — Giants)
Stats: 11,603 yards, 60 TD, 34 INT, 86.5 rate, 21-31-1 record (1-1 playoffs)
What a turnaround it has been for Daniel Jones. Entering the year, the Giants declined the QB’s fifth-year option — indicating a potential breakup this offseason. Instead, Jones was rewarded a lucrative four-year extension worth $160 million following a breakout campaign. New head coach Brian Daboll unleashed Jones and crafted a gameplan which accentuated his quarterback’s skillset. Jones finished the year with career highs across the board, and led the Giants to their first playoff appearance since 2016. In the Wild Card round, Jones was excellent accounting for 379 total yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Image Source: USA TODAY Sports
9. Jared Goff (1st Overall, 2016 — Rams)
Stats: 25,854 yards, 155 TD, 70 INT, 92.8 rate, 54-45-1 (2-3 playoffs)
Jared Goff was set to be written off following his trade from the Los Angeles Rams to the Detroit Lions. It certainly seemed as such in Goff’s first year with Detroit. While the Lions limped to a 3-13-1 record, Goff’s former team went on to win the Super Bowl with Matthew Stafford at the helm. However, the narrative changed a bit this year following a Pro Bowl campaign from Goff. While the Rams were likely expecting more out of their No. 1 overall pick, Goff has stuck around now for seven seasons, has made three Pro Bowls, and was good enough to lead a team to the Super Bowl.
Image Source: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
8. Kyler Murray (1st Overall, 2019 — Cardinals)
Stats: 13,848 yards, 84 TD, 41 INT, 92.5 rate, 25-31-1 record (0-1 playoffs)
Kyler Murray took a step back in Year 4 after leading the Cardinals to the postseason in 2021. The fourth-year QB’s numbers were down across the board as Arizona limped to a 4-13 record (3-8 with Murray). And, his season ended with an injury which will likely sideline him for a portion of 2023. That being said, Murray is a dynamic athlete with tremendous gifts. It’s just a matter of staying off the injured list and on the field.
Image Source: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
7. Deshaun Watson (12th Overall, 2017 — Texans)
Stats: 15,641 yards, 111 TD, 41 INT, 102.3 rate, 31-28 record (1-2 playoffs)
Much like Murray, Watson’s spot on this list is mostly based on previous accomplishments rather than recent play. Watson was downright awful in 2022. Playing his first season as a Cleveland Brown, Watson completed passes at just a 58.2-percent clip and posted a 79.1 QB rating. Those in the Cleveland front office are hoping Watson was just shaking off some rust after not playing for nearly two years. At his best, Watson was a hyper-accurate thrower who consistently made plays out of structure.
Image Source: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
6. Trevor Lawrence (1st Overall, 2021 — Jaguars)
Stats: 7,754 yards, 37 TD, 25 INT, 83.4 rate, 12-22 record (1-1 playoffs)
Year 2 went a whole lot better for Trevor Lawrence The former Clemson QB didn’t stand much of a chance as a rookie. Entering a dire situation in Jacksonville under former coach Urban Meyer, Lawrence endured a disastrous introduction to the league. The tide began to turn when the Jags hired Doug Pederson to lead the team this past offseason. The underdog Jaguars took the AFC South title for the first time sine 2017, and Lawrence even led the team to an epic 27-point comeback victory in the Wild Card round. He has all the tools to become a superstar, and will only continue to get better.
Image Source: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
5. Lamar Jackson (32nd Overall, 2018 — Ravens)
Stats: 12,209 yards (4,437 rushing), 101 TD (24 rush TD), 38 INT, 96.7 rate, 45-16 record (1-3 playoffs)
Jackson remains in flux due to his murky contact situation with the Ravens. When looking at the numbers, Jackson undoubtedly deserves to be paid as a superstar QB. The Ravens have won 66-percent of their games with Jackson at the helm — reaching the postseason in each of his first three seasons. While injuries have slowed him down a bit the last couple of years, Jackson is just entering his prime (26 years old) and is already a league MVP.
Image Source: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
4. Justin Herbert (6th Overall, 2020 — Chargers)
Stats: 14,089 yards, 94 TD, 35 INT, 96.2 rate, 25-24 record (0-1 playoffs)
Justin Herbert was not supposed to be the Chargers’ starting quarterback so early as a rookie. Veteran Tyrod Taylor started the 2020 season as the No. 1 option, but a rib injury and subsequent trainer-inflicted injury sent Taylor to the bench. In his place, Herbert starred. The No. 6 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Herbert has special arm strength and poise beyond his years. While the Chargers’ record hasn’t been great with Herbert under center, there’s no doubt he will lead them to countless wins over the next decade.
Image Source: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
3. Josh Allen (7th Overall, 2018 — Bills)
Stats: 18,397 yards (3,087 rush yards), 138 TD (38 rush TD), 60 INT, 92.2 rate, 52-24 record (4-4 playoffs)
Some may have written off Josh Allen after a shaky rookie campaign. Allen came into the league with serious concerns over accuracy and decision-making. However, Allen gradually ironed out his weaknesses and began developing rapidly. Year 3 marked his breakout — a second-place MVP finish after accounting for 45 total touchdowns. Allen’s game is pure power. He’s capable of dismantling defenses with his rocket arm or scrambling ability. Since 2020, no player has scored more total touchdowns (129) than Buffalo’s superstar quarterback.
Image Source: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
2. Joe Burrow (1st Overall, 2020 — Bengals)
Stats: 11,774 yards, 82 TD, 31 INT, 100.4 rate, 24-17-1 record (5-2 playoffs)
Following a record-breaking campaign at LSU, some questioned if Joe Burrow’s elite play would translate to the NFL level. The cool-handed gunslinger has wasted no time silencing those concerns. Before sustaining a season-ending injury, Burrow was off to a great rookie season despite playing behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. In 2021, Burrow started in 16 games and led the league in both completion percentage (70.4) and yards-per-attempt (8.9). In the playoffs, Burrow led the Bengals to the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance since 1988. Burrow followed that up by finishing fourth in MVP voting in 2022, proving the previous year’s Super Bowl run was not a fluke.
Image Source: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
1. Patrick Mahomes (10th Overall, 2017 — Chiefs)
Stats: 24,241 yards, 192 TD, 49 INT, 105.7 rate, 64-16 record (11-3 playoffs, 2 SB)
There aren’t too many lists concerning NFL quarterbacks that doesn’t have Patrick Mahomes atop the board. It was a bit of a surprising move when the Chiefs moved up in the 2017 draft to select Mahomes with a capable starter in Alex Smith already on the roster. Mahomes didn’t get his first chance until Week 17 of his rookie year, but Year 2 put the league on notice. Mahomes went on to win league MVP in his first full season, and is now a two-time regular season MVP in addition to being a two-time Super Bowl MVP. Gifted with one of the strongest arms in the league, there is no throw that Mahomes is incapable of making.
Image Source: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
2023 NFL Mock Draft: Expert Picks and Analysis
1. Carolina Panthers: QB C.J. Stroud — Ohio State
After making a blockbuster trade with the Chicago Bears, the Carolina Panthers now are slated to pick first in the 2023 NFL Draft. New head coach Frank Reich has always been known as somewhat of an offensive guru. As such, it comes as no surprise to see the Panthers leap up to grab what they perceive to be their franchise signal-caller.
Between Stroud and Young, we lean to Stroud. His accuracy is excellent, he’s shown the ability to evade pressure and pick up yardage when required with his legs. Plus, Stroud has a far bigger frame than Young does. We think he’ll be able to withstand the rigors of NFL life at a slightly higher level.
Image Source: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
2. Houston Texans: QB Bryce Young — Alabama
This is not a bad consolation prize for new head coach DeMeco Ryans. Young will be the pick here for the Texans. When selecting the Los Angeles native, Houston is getting a competitive player with terrific leadership qualities. He absolutely tore up the most challenging conference in all of College Football despite possessing less-than-ideal height.
This is the biggest question for Young moving forward. He throws a nice ball, and has enough zip to make plays all over the field. The main concern revolves around the fact that very few quarterbacks under 6-feet tall succeeded at the highest level. Even then, the two most recent examples — Russell Wilson and Drew Brees — each had the combination of gigantic hands and thick frames. Young isn’t built the same way, which could cause him to be more injury-prone.
Image Source: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports
3. Arizona Cardinals: DE Will Anderson Jr. — Alabama
After missing out on the postseason, the Cardinals could be looking at major changes in the coming months. In addition to replacing Steve Keim at General Manager, Arizona will be searching for its next coach following Kliff Kingsbury’s firing. Rebuilding an aging and stale roster is also of importance.
Needless to say, the Cardinals need talent everywhere — particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Anderson is a really good quick-twitch athlete off the edge. He’ll be paid to sack the opposing quarterback. In obvious pass situations, you could even see him kick inside and rush from a tackle spot.
Image Source: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
4. Indianapolis Colts: QB Will Levis — Kentucky
Will Levis’ numbers were down in ’22, but his arm talent and playmaking ability may make him a top-10 pick. Playing for Kentucky, Levis isn’t afforded the same type of supporting cast as some of his peers. His numbers have suffered as a result. Though, scouts rave about his physical tools including having arguably the strongest arm in the class. We know how much teams value physical traits, and nobody wants to miss out on the next Josh Allen or Justin Herbert.
The Colts have continuously attempted the plug-and-play veteran strategy to no avail. After failed runs with Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan, it seems like Colts management is finally ready to accept reality: This franchise needs to address the QB position through the draft. Selecting Levis would signal a new era in Indy.
Image Source: USA TODAY Sports
5. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN): QB Anthony Richardson — Florida
This is an upside pick for Seattle. The front office has done a really nice job in rebuilding the roster. Geno Smith is under contract, and — all thing’s considered — the Seahawks are set up really well for the future. Taking Richardson here is a gamble without a doubt. He struggled with accuracy issues throughout his time in Florida.
However, the upside is also undeniable.
- Richardson measured at 6’4 1/4″ (taller than George Kittle)
- 4.43 40-yard dash time (faster than CeeDee Lamb)
- Weighed in at 244 pounds (heavier than Haason Reddick)
- Notched a 40.5″ vertical (higher than Davante Adams)
- Hand Size: 10 1/2″ (bigger than DeAndre Hopkins)
- Broad jump: 10’9″ (longer than Odell Beckham Jr.)
As you can see, you’re looking at a freak of an athlete. He also was measured as having perhaps the strongest arm ever recorded at the combine. With this situation, he’ll be able to sit behind Smith and learn from a solid veteran quarterback. In two or three years, you could be looking at the best player from this draft…or a potential big-time bust.
Image Source: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
6. Detroit Lions (via LAR): DT Jalen Carter — Georgia
A few off-the-field issues have led to Carter dropping a bit. There’s no denying his talent — where based on that alone he’s a top-three pick. He showed up a bit heavy to his Pro Day, though many believe he can shed the requisite weight with a proper NFL strength and conditioning program.
Detroit solved its secondary issues with a plethora of signings during the free agency period. At this point, the team can be aggressive in going after the best talent possible. If Carter can stay locked with his discipline both on and off the field, we will look back at this being a whale of a pick for the suddenly emerging Lions.
Image Source: Steve Limentani/ISI Photos/Getty Images
7. Las Vegas Raiders: DB Joey Porter Jr. — Penn State
The Raiders really do need help everywhere at this point. It’s a weird time in Las Vegas — where the team feels caught in-between a rebuild and a push towards a playoff spot. Upgrading the talent at corner is something the team could stand to do. Porter Jr. ticks off plenty of boxes — including the fact his dad was a longtime NFL player.
Looking back to the New England days, Bill Belichick often sought to get players who had the professional pedigree from their fathers. Josh McDaniels will tap into that way of thinking here with the Penn State star. Porter Jr. is a 6-foot-2 corner with good tackling skills and sub-4.5 speed.
Image Source: Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
8. Atlanta Falcons: DB Christian Gonzalez — Oregon
With skill positions on offense set in place, the Falcons will have to address the defensive side of the ball with their top-10 selection. Atlanta’s pass rush has been anemic for quite some time. Over the last two seasons, the Falcons have recorded the fewest sacks in the league (39). To put that total in perspective, 17 teams surpassed 39 sacks in 2023 alone.
However, if Gonzalez drops to them at this point in the draft, it’s almost a certainly the Falcons would pounce on him. A.J. Terrell needs a running mate on the opposite side of the field. The Oregon product (by way of Colorado originally) has terrific size, length, and a nose for the football. Duly, Gonzalez’s ball skills really gives him a chance to be a very good Day 1 starter for the Falcons.
Image Source: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
9. Chicago Bears: DL Myles Murphy — Clemson
Dropping down and collecting a few more picks, the Bears can now target some real areas of need within the roster. Murphy is a great place to start — as you’re getting a defensive lineman with the ability to play both inside and outside. His pedigree coming from Clemson is impressive, as is his get-off once the ball is snapped. There’s not a lot of talent or experience within the group as of late March. With that in mind, Murphy likely is a plug-and-play talent.
Image Source: Matthew OHaren/USA TODAY Sports
10. Philadelphia Eagles (from NO): OL Peter Skoronski — Northwestern
Another top offensive lineman out of Northwestern, Peter Skoronski hopes to follow in the footsteps of his college teammate Rashawn Slater and become a first-round pick. Skoronski has been starting since he was a freshman for the Wildcats, earning All-Big Ten honors in each of his first two campaigns. Prior to his junior year, Skoronski was named a Preseason All-American. He lived up to that distinction throughout the year, allowing just one sack all season.
Philadelphia’s Super Bowl roster from a year ago was dismantled in free agency. That isn’t to say this is no longer a contending group, but the once-stacked Eagles now have a few needs to address. The departures of Andre Dillard and Isaac Seumalo was a significant blow to depth across the offensive line. Philly’s savvy front offices pounces at the chance to land Skoronski with this selection, and allow him to sit and learn from the league’s best offensive lines.
Image Source: Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Image
11. Tennessee Titans: TE Michael Mayer — Notre Dame
This is a bit of a surprise, to be sure. Mayer is considered to be the best tight end in this draft. He comes from a program known for developing players at the position. He’s a big target with soft hands and toughness. In short, the exact player Mike Vrabel seeks when building out his roster.
Mayer’s collective intelligence along with overall physicality makes him perfect for what Vrabel wants to do in Tennessee. The offense is in desperate need of an elite pass-catching option. Treylon Burks is still unproven, and incumbent TE Chigoziem Okonkwo is more in the mold of an H-Back rather than a true TE. He can play alongside Mayer — which would truly help in fortifying the anemic passing attack.
Image Source: Michael Hickey/Getty Images
12. Houston Texans (via CLE): WR Quentin Johnston — TCU
Here’s your boom or bust prospect high in the first round. Johnston has every tool you’d want from a No. 1 receiver. He’s 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, and runs like a deer. On the surface, you’re looking at a guy who should be a Pro Bowler (assuming he stays healthy). There are times where he flashes hugely for TCU, including in the high-scoring Fiesta Bowl which saw Johnson haul in six passes for 163 yards.
The Texans likely will be willing to take a risk on him for the simple fact the roster is void of any playmakers whatsoever on the perimeter. If the Texans ‘hit’ with Johnston, you’re looking at a massive steal at this point in the draft. Plus, Bryce Young would be very happy with a target this talented.
Image Source: Winslow Townson/USA TODAY Sports
13. New York Jets: OL Paris Johnson — Ohio State
Paris Johnson Jr. has been the nation’s best offensive lineman thus far. The Ohio State standout started his career at right guard, but has since made the move to left tackle which will surely boost his NFL stock. Johnson Jr. did not allow a sack or get flagged for a penalty all season. In fact, Johnson Jr. hasn’t been responsible for allowing a sack since 2020.
The Jets have built up a young and competitive roster. While QB is still an issue, it seems likely that a veteran (aka Aaron Rodgers) will be asked to fill in for 2023 after the team has seemingly struck out on a pair of top-3 QB selections (Sam Darnold followed by Zach Wilson). With a number of offensive line holes potentially needing to be filled, Johnson Jr. could slide in at guard or at either tackle spot for the Jets.
Image Source: USA TODAY Sports
14. New England Patriots: OT Broderick Jones — Georgia
New England has made a number of moves this offseason to address the offensive line, but they still lack a long-term answer at either tackle spot. Starting left tackle Trent Brown has struggled to stay healthy his entire career, and projected starting right tackle Riley Reiff will be 35 next season. With Broderick Jones still on the board, the Pats pounce at the chance to snag a cornerstone tackle at this point in the draft.
The former 5-star prospect is a very good athlete. Jones is solidly built, and possesses the frame to be a total mauler in the run game (as it pertains to setting the edge). However, he’s also explosive enough to get upfield when meeting defenders. His best football surely seems to be ahead of him — and it wouldn’t be surprised to see Jones get a look inside at guard as well early in his career.
Image Source: USA TODAY Sports
15. Green Bay Packers: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba — Ohio State
Jaxon Smith-Njigba would have likely been a first-round pick had he been allowed to leave school for the NFL draft last year. Instead, the Ohio State pass catcher returned for his junior year and was mostly sidelined due to injury. However, Smith-Njigba’s 2021 was a campaign to remember. Last season, Smith-Njigba led Ohio State in receptions (95) and receiving yards (1,606). As a 19-year-old. For a team that had Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave who were both first-round picks. Despite a down ’22, Smith-Njigba will hear his name called in the first few picks of the upcoming NFL Draft.
The Packers will have to spend big on a WR sooner than later. Smith-Njigba paired with Christian Watson would make for an intriguing duo. Whether he’s catching passes from Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, or some other quarterback, Smith-Njigba would be a home run pick here for the Packers.
Image Source: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
16. Washington Commanders: DB Devon Witherspoon — Illinois
The Commanders have the roster in place to potentially compete for an NFC East crown. However, QB is still an area of concern. Predictably, Carson Wentz did not play well in his first year in Washington. Backup Taylor Heinicke bolted for Atlanta. In free agency, Washington landed former Browns starter Jacoby Brissett to likely serve as the backup for Sam Howell.
While we aren’t completely ruling out a QB selection here, the Commanders are likely priced out of the top prospects unless a trade is in the works. Witherspoon dazzled at the combine, and grades as the top man coverage corner in the pool.
Image Source: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Emmanuel Forbes — Mississippi State
Forbes was one of the SEC’s top corners. He has all of the physical tools to be a great cover man at the next level with elite size (6-foot-1) and speed (4.35-second 40-yard dash). However, the biggest positives as it pertains to Forbes’ game are his ball-skills. He’s exceptionally gifted at attacking the ball in the air and converting turnovers. Forbes finished his career at Mississippi State with 14 INT and six touchdowns. For a Pittsburgh team needing a jolt of youth at the corner spot, Forbes would be a fantastic pick (if he doesn’t continue to shoot up draft boards).
Image Source: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
18. Detroit Lions: DL Bryan Bresee — Clemson
Bresee came to Clemson as a ballyhooed recruit. After tearing his ACL, he’s been rehabbing to get back to the explosive form he once demonstrated. At 6-foot-5 and north of 300 pounds, he can play in a 4-3 or a 3-4 depending on where he’s aligned. Most like him as a DT, though he can very well play as a DE in a 3-4 scheme. You’d be taking Bresee with the hopes that he’ll realize his immense potential. If you’re the Lions with multiple first-round picks, why not swing for the fences on a guy who could one day be a major difference maker.
Image Source: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DL Tyree Wilson — Texas Tech
With the signing of Baker Mayfield, the Bucs signaled their intent to rely on a veteran quarterback in 2023 rather than rolling the dice on a rookie. Though one area of need as been addressed, Tampa Bay still has several holes to fill across its roster. Namely, edge rusher might be the move here. Shaquil Barrett is on his road to recovering from an Achilles tear. Last season, the team leader in sacks was Vita Vea (an interior defender) with just 6.5.
Tyree Wilson is perhaps the most impressive athlete of the entire draft. The 6-foot-6, 275-pound edge rusher is a physical marvel. NFL teams truthfully value athleticism when it comes to edge rushers. Wilson could give the Bucs some much needed juice on the outside. Looking at past drafts, Wilson is the type of player who could easily fly up boards as April approaches.
Image Source: John E. Moore III/Getty Images
20. Seattle Seahawks: DE Lukas Van Ness — Iowa
With a quarterback already secured earlier in the draft, the Seahawks can now utilize their original pick on another position. Among potential needs, the front seven appears to be Seattle’s most shallow group. The team’s two top pass rushers from last season — Darrell Taylor and Uchenna Nwosu — are set to be free agents next season.
Iowa’s Lukas Van Ness is a player who is rapidly rising up boards following an impressive showing at the NFL Draft Combine. While he was never listed as a starter for the Hawkeyes, teams are enamored by his size, length, and athleticism. He’s shown to be a versatile player who can disrupt offenses off the edge or while lined up in the interior.
Image Source: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
21. Los Angeles Chargers: WR Zay Flowers — Boston College
In terms of roster talent, there are few teams that can stack up with this Chargers group on either side of the ball. However, they could afford to get a bit faster at wideout. While Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both tremendously talented, neither has the pure speed to take the top off of defenses. Grabbing a young wideout with some wheels could only help bolster LA’s proven veterans.
Zay Flowers isn’t a traditional burner — ran a 4.42-second 40-yard dash at the combine — but he plays with tremendous pace and burst. He’s elite in the open field, capable of making multiple defenders miss in space. Some teams will be wary of his smaller stature — 5-foot-8, 180-pounds — though Flowers is an established playmaker who is a perfect fit for Kellen Moore’s new offense in Los Angeles.
Image Source: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
22. Baltimore Ravens: TE Dalton Kincaid — Utah
This is a total Ravens pick. After years of their fans clamoring for a top WR option for their MVP quarterback, the Ravens double-down at TE pairing All-Pro Mark Andrews with Utah’s Dalton Kincaid. While Kincaid has proven worthy as a blocker, his skills lie in his ability as a receiver. The 6-foot-4, 250-pound Kincaid is extremely fluid coming out of routes, and was one of the best in college football at winning one-on-one matchups. With two potential mismatches lined up on the field, teams will be forced to send multiple defenders at both Andrews and Kincaid.
Image Source: Chris Pietsch / USA TODAY NETWORK
23. Minnesota Vikings: OT Darnell Wright — Tennessee
The Vikings struck gold drafting Christian Darrisaw 23rd overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. With this potential pick, Minnesota once again attempts to secure a franchise tackle with a late first-round pick. Wright played all across the offensive line during his career at Tennessee, but it seems like his home will be at right tackle. With Darrisaw and Wright manning both tackle spots, QB Kirk Cousins should have plenty of time to scan the field and connect with open receivers.
Image Source: Jamar Coach/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE/OLB Nolan Smith — Georgia
Jacksonville has done well in adding weapons around Trevor Lawrence. Just in the last few months, the Jaguars added Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Zay Jones, and Calvin Ridley. With the offensive side of the ball taken care of, Jacksonville will once again attempt to rebuild its defense. After spending the No. 1 overall pick on Travon Walker a season ago, the Jaguars snag another athletic anomaly in Georgia’s Nolan Smith. While a bit undersized, Smith makes up for his smaller frame by having excellent technique and tremendous top-end speed. The Georgia defender ran a blazing 4.39-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2, 240 pounds.
Image Source: Steve Limentani/ISI Photos/Getty Images
25. New York Giants: WR Jordan Addison — USC
The Giants continue to add weapons around Daniel Jones after inking their QB to a lucrative extension this offseason. First, the team traded for former Raiders TE Darren Waller — one of the top pass-catching threats at the position. New York also signed Parris Campbell during the first week of free agency — a 25-year-old speedster coming off his best year as a pro. To complete a fantastic offseason, the Giants utilize their first-round pick on another offensive weapon.
Widely regarded as one of the nation’s top receivers, Addison was rather good for USC this season (when he played). Addison’s route-running is extremely good — as is his quickness coming in-and-out of breaks. He can beat you deep and also on crossing routes. Stylistically, he is somewhat reminiscent to a few former USC receivers of the past (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nelson Agholor, Marqise Lee).
Image Source: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports
26. Dallas Cowboys: RB Bijan Robinson — Texas
Could Bijan Robinson be the one to take Ezekiel Elliott’s place in Dallas’ backfield? The longtime Cowboy was released this offseason. Though some hoped this signaled the uber-efficient Tony Pollard (who received the franchise tag this month) would become the every-down back, we wouldn’t be so sure of that. More and more teams are utilizing multiple runners in the backfield to keep everyone fresh. Adding a workhorse back of Robinson’s caliber is too much to pass up.
The Phoenix native has been one of college football’s most prolific running backs over the last few years. Big 12 defenses have struggled to deal with Robinson’s combination of power and quickness. We also must recognize Robinson’s balance as a runner — where he’s often able to churn forward for extra yardage after first contact. His ‘one cut and go’ style of running works perfectly for NFL offenses, as does his ability to catch passes out of the backfield.
Image Source: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
27. Buffalo Bills: DE Will McDonald IV — Iowa State
While the Bills did say goodbye to their top free agent Tremaine Edmunds, this is still among the best rosters in the league entering 2023. It could make sense for the Bills to land Edmunds’ replacement with this selection. However, there have been hints that Buffalo will look to an in-house solution. There are still several off-ball linebackers available in free agency — including six-time All-Pro Bobby Wagner.
Though the Bills have plenty of edge rush options, depth is a need. Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham and A.J. Epenesa are all set for free agency in either 2024 or 2025. Additionally, Von Miller just turned 34 years old and is coming off the second ACL tear of his career. Will McDonald is a physically gifted pass rusher who compiled 34 career sacks at Iowa State. He would give the team some depth while also providing another long-term option.
Image Source: Zach Boyden-Holmes/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK
28. Cincinnati Bengals: DB Deonte Banks — Maryland
Maryland CB Deonte Banks did a lot to help himself at the combine. He ran a 4.35-second 40-yard dash — tied for third among all cornerbacks — and had the highest vertical leap at 42″. Standing at 6-foot-0, Banks has the size and athleticism teams are searching for in a perimeter corner. While he didn’t have the same gaudy on-ball production of some of the other prospects (had just two career INT’s in four seasons), Banks was rarely targeted due to his coverage skills. He was also a monster in the run game.
The Bengals spent their first two picks on defensive backs last season, but are still in search of an outside corner. Chidobe Awuzie is still recovering from surgery and will be a free agent in 2024. Banks could serve as the long-term replacement while also filling in during Awuzie’s absence.
Image Source: Mark Hoffman via Imagn Content Services, LLC
29. New Orleans Saints: DL Adetomiwa Adebawore — Northwestern
One of the biggest risers from the combine, Adebawore is now likely to hear his name called in the first round of the NFL Draft. The Northwestern product clocked a 4.49-second 40-yard dash, and weighed in at 282 pounds after some questioned if he was bulky enough to line up on the interior. Whether its off the edge or playing more centrally, Adebawore has excellent pass rushing skills and could be a potential matchup nightmare.
With the massive contract shelled out to free agent QB Derek Carr, the Saints had to say goodbye to some other key pieces this offseason. Most notably, a trio of defensive lineman — Marcus Davenport, David Onyemata, and Shy Tuttle — will be playing for new teams this year. Addressing the front seven is an obvious need for this group.
Image Source: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
30. Philadelphia Eagles: DL Tuli Tuipulotu — USC
As discussed before, the Eagles have a handful of needs following an offseason of departures. Most notably, the defensive line looks to be losing a ton of talent. Javon Hargrave is already gone to San Francisco, and a trio of veterans who helped aid the NFC title run — Robert Quinn, Ndamukong Suh, Linval Joseph — remain in flux.
USC’s Tuipulotu put it all together in his junior season, rising up draft boards following a 13.5 sack campaign. His versatility would allow him to find early playing time for the Eagles. Weighing in at nearly 300 pounds, Tuipulotu has the size and bend to line up anywhere across the defensive line in either a 4-3 or 3-4 set.
Image Source: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports
31. Kansas City Chiefs: DB Brian Branch — Alabama
Yet another Alabama defender, Brian Branch is widely considered to be the top safety prospect in the draft. What Branch lacks in size he makes up for in instincts and versatility. He has the quicks to keep up with even the shiftiest receivers, but is also a willing tackler who isn’t afraid to mix it up with ball carriers. Branch finished his junior campaign with two INTs, three sacks, and seven passes defended.
Image Source: Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images