33. Johnny Manziel (22nd Overall, 2014 — Cleveland Browns)
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Johnny Manziel went from a relative unknown to a household name after a memorable 2012 Heisman-winning campaign. The historically woeful Browns took a chance on Manziel in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft, despite obvious concerns about his profile. Needless to say, the pairing did not work out. Manziel was prone to mistakes — both on and off the field. His erratic style of play did not translate at all in the NFL, as teams were able to easily stifle Manziel as both a runner and passer. Manziel made eight starts and was out of the league in just two seasons.
32. Paxton Lynch (26th Overall, 2016 — Denver Broncos)
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2016 was a time when offenses were shifting across the league. Teams were looking for the next, athletic quarterback following the breakouts of Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick. At Memphis, Lynch dazzled with good mobility and a rocket arm. With Peyton Manning retired and Brock Osweiler bolting for Houston, the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos used their first-round selection on Lynch. It was an unbridled disaster. Heading into his rookie campaign, Lynch lost the starting job to a 7th-round pick — Trevor Siemian — during offseason training camp. Lynch would go on to start just four games for the Broncos over the next two years, and hasn’t appeared in an NFL game since 2017.
31. Josh Rosen (10th Overall, 2018 — Arizona Cardinals)
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Rosen entered the league under fairly unfortunate conditions. The former UCLA star was drafted to a Cardinals team which was set for failure. Rosen’s first head coach — Steve Wilks — was fired after just one season and replaced by Kliff Kingsbury. With the first overall pick in hand, Arizona selected Heisman winner Kyler Murray just a year after trading up in the draft to take Rosen. Arizona traded Rosen shortly after the draft. Since then, Rosen has played for Miami and Atlanta, and has also made stops in Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Cleveland, and Minnesota.
30. Dwayne Haskins (15th, 2019 — Washington Commanders)
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Dwayne Haskins wasn’t given much of an opportunity to showcase his skill set in the NFL. The former Ohio State signal-caller was taken 15th overall in 2019 by a dysfunctional Washington organization. It took just two years for Washington to move on from their first-round pick. Haskins found a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Shockingly, Haskins died in 2022 after being hit by a truck. He was just 24 years old.
29. EJ Manuel (16th Overall, 2013 — Buffalo Bills)
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EJ Manuel was the only hurler taken off the board in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft. The Florida State product started 10 games as a rookie and struggled (like most first-year quarterbacks do). The major red flag was waved when Manuel was benched in his second season in favor of an aging and limited Kyle Orton. Things got worse when Rex Ryan took over the Buffalo head coaching spot and named Tyrod Taylor as starter. Manuel would start just eight games over his final four seasons. He last appeared in an NFL game back in 2017 for the Raiders.
28. Zach Wilson (2nd Overall, 2021 — New York Jets)
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It may feel a bit unfair to have Jets QB Zach Wilson ranked this low on the list. Quarterbacks can take time to acclimate themselves to the level of play in the NFL. However, the early results for the No. 2 overall pick in ’21 have not been encouraging. Wilson’s poor play led to Jets fans clamoring for fifth-round pick Mike White or an almost 40-year-old Joe Flacco. The Jets opted to go all-in on Aaron Rodgers this past offseason, but were forced to turn back to Wilson after the four-time MVP was lost for the season with an Achilles tear. Thus far, Wilson has shown to be inconsistent, inaccurate, and lacking fundamentals. He’s likely played his last game as a Jet, and will be looking for a new home in 2024.
27. Blake Bortles (3rd Overall, 2014 — Jacksonville Jaguars)
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While he hardly lived up to his draft status, Blake Bortles enjoyed a handful of good moments throughout his playing career. In Year 2, Bortles threw 35 TD — second in the league — and for 4,428 yards. While his play dipped over the following years, Bortles did help lead the Jaguars to an AFC Championship appearance in 2017. The ensuing season would be Bortles’ last in Jacksonville. Bortles officially announced his retirement in 2022, though he hadn’t appeared in a game since the ’19 season.
26. Sam Darnold (3rd Overall, 2018 — New York Jets)
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Sam Darnold has been given multiple chances to prove he’s a starting quarterback in today’s NFL. Unfortunately, the former USC product has yet to answer the call. Following three seasons with the Jets, Darnold was squeezed out of New York and landed with the QB-needy Carolina Panthers. No real signs of development materialized, as Darnold continued to struggle under pressure and turn the ball over at a high clip. Darnold signed with the San Francisco 49ers and won the backup role over Trey Lance. It would certainly be interesting to see how the juggernaut 49ers offense would look if Darnold were to take over.
25. Trey Lance (3rd Overall, 2021 — San Francisco 49ers)
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Lance’s career has never really been able to take off. The 49ers invested a heap of capital when they traded up in the 2021 NFL Draft for the chance to take the North Dakota St. product. After sitting for an NFC Championship representative in Year 1, Lance was set to take the reins in San Francisco entering the 2022 season. Lance lasted just one full game (which took place under horrid weather conditions) before his season was cut short due to a broken ankle. While he was gone, Brock Purdy emerged as the team’s franchise quarterback. Lance was deemed expendable heading into the 2023 season, and was ultimately traded to Dallas for a mid-round pick. With Dak Prescott in tow, it’s unlikely Lance will get a shot at starting barring injury. He will be 24 years old heading into next season, and has attempted just 102 passes since being drafted.
24. Teddy Bridgewater (32nd Overall, 2014 — Minnesota Vikings)
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It appeared the Vikings struck gold by drafting Teddy Bridgewater with the last pick of the first round in the 2014 NFL Draft. Bridgewater got off to a hot start in Minnesota, instantly winning the starting job and leading the Vikings to the postseason in Year 2. Disaster struck when Bridgewater later suffered a torn ACL during a practice — sidelining him for nearly two years. It was a long road back, but Bridgewater eventually settled into a high-level backup role. After spending 2023 with the Detroit Lions, Bridgewater decided to retire following nine NFL seasons.
23. Mitchell Trubisky (2nd Overall, 2017 — Chicago Bears)
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Following a season in Buffalo serving as Josh Allen’s backup, Mitchell Trubisky got his second chance as a starter with the Pittsburgh Steelers. It went about as expected. Trubisky remains a limited QB who is no longer starting caliber. He’s capable of throwing a nice “go”-route now and again, but he doesn’t make the consistent plays a team needs from their starting quarterback. He was released by the Steelers following the end of the season. Unfairly or not, Trubisky will always be compared to Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson — two quarterbacks who were taken after Trubisky during the 2017 NFL Draft.
22. Kenny Pickett (20th Overall, 2022 — Pittsburgh Steelers)
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Is the clock already ticking on Kenny Pickett? After sputtering to begin the year, the Steelers’ offense ran far more smoothly when backup Mason Rudolph took over. Pickett has not been able to get going despite having plenty of talent around him in Pittsburgh. Through two years, Pickett has thrown as many interceptions as he has touchdowns (13). He’s never had the greatest arm strength, but he’s also struggled with accuracy in the NFL. The Steelers have yet to commit to either QB heading into next season and are reportedly scouring the market for somebody to add. Not a great sign for the former Pitt Panther.
21. Mac Jones (15th Overall, 2021 — New England Patriots)
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Mac Jones is a player who looked to be on the rise. The former Crimson Tide QB was the fifth quarterback taken in the 2021 NFL Draft. Surprisingly, Jones enjoyed NFL success earlier than his peers, putting together a strong rookie campaign that ended in a playoff berth for the Patriots. Instead of building upon his first year, Jones has massively regressed and even lost his starting spot to fourth-round pick Bailey Zappe. The Patriots and Jones appear ready to move on. Perhaps his next stop will produce better results.
20. Marcus Mariota (2nd Overall, 2015 — Tennessee Titans)
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What could have been of Marcus Mariota’s career had the QB stayed healthy? The former Heisman Trophy winner at Oregon had all the traits teams are looking for in a franchise quarterback — athleticism, accuracy, and intelligence. Mariota could make plays through the air or on the ground, but his confidence was zapped following a series of lower body injuries. We saw what he was capable of in a starting role with the Falcons in 2022. Atlanta posted one of the league’s worst pass offenses — likely a result of HC Arthur Smith’s lacking faith in Mariota to push the ball downfield. Mariota has now entered the veteran backup stage of his career. He served as Jalen Hurts’ primary backup for the Eagles in 2023.
19. Carson Wentz (2nd Overall, 2016 — Philadelphia Eagles)
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Carson Wentz’s days as a starter are seemingly over. The No. 2 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, Wentz was with the Philadelphia Eagles for five seasons before the team opted to hand the franchise over to Jalen Hurts. Wentz then joined the Colts, where he enjoyed a relatively strong season until unraveling down the stretch. Joining his third team in three years, Wentz reached a deal with the Commanders — and the pairing did not end well. After sitting out for a majority of the 2023 season, Wentz latched on late with the Los Angeles Rams. Perhaps learning under Sean McVay and embracing a backup role behind Matthew Stafford will help Wentz get back on track.
18. Jameis Winston (1st Overall, 2015 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
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We haven’t seen much Winston over the last few years. The former No. 1 overall pick has started just 10 games since joining the Saints four years ago. Before the 2023 season, the Saints went out and inked former Raiders QB Derek Carr to a massive deal. Winston accepted a backup role, and played sparingly throughout the year as Carr dealt with a couple of injuries. His play against the Vikings was emblematic of his career. Winston rallied a second-half comeback in Minnesota before tossing a pair of terrible interceptions to seal the game. He runs hot and cold, and that’s likely why no team is rushing to make Winston a starting QB again.
17. Bryce Young (1st Overall, 2023 — Carolina Panthers)
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Bryce Young was set up to fail in his rookie year. He had arguably the worst group of skill players surrounding him. His coach (who reportedly didn’t want to draft him) was fired after 11 games. It didn’t help that C.J. Stroud — the No. 2 pick in 2023 — immediately found success. There were always going to be questions about Young’s ability to adapt to the NFL game. He doesn’t have the biggest arm and he’s not an elite athlete. However, he has great pocket command and can create plays out of structure. New head coach Dave Canales is tasked with crafting an offense that highlights Young’s abilities moving forward.
16. Anthony Richardson (4th Overall, 2023 — Indianapolis Colts)
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It’s going to be a matter of staying healthy for Richardson. He has the talent to take over games. In just four games before going down with a season-ending injury, Richardson accounted for 7 TDs (four rushing) and just 1 INT. Athletically, Richardson doesn’t have many parallels outside of (maybe) Buffalo’s Josh Allen. He’s equipped with a cannon for an arm and has legit top-end speed in a massive 6-foot-4, 245-pound frame. If he can stay on the field, there’s no doubting Richardson will emerge as a difference-maker for the Colts.
15. Justin Fields (11th Overall, 2021 — Chicago Bears)
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Fields’ future is completely up in the air. In his second year with the Bears, Fields proved capable of carrying an offense (almost) single-handedly. Chicago finished first in rushing yards thanks to Fields’ playmaking ability. In one of the greatest rushing seasons ever for a QB, Fields (1,143 yards, eight TDs) virtually matched Lamar Jackson’s MVP campaign (1,206 yards, seven TDs) in terms of ground production. Unfortunately, his growth as a passer has stalled. It’s led many to believe the Bears intend on making a switch at QB momentarily. Fields could be on the move, though that may end up ultimately aiding in his development.
14. Daniel Jones (6th Overall, 2019 — New York Giants)
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What a turnaround it was for Daniel Jones. Entering a pivotal Year 2, the Giants declined the QB’s fifth-year option — indicating a potential breakup following the season. Instead, Jones was rewarded a lucrative four-year extension worth $160 million following a breakout campaign. New head coach Brian Daboll unleashed Jones and crafted a game plan that accentuated his quarterback’s skill set. Jones finished the year with career highs across the board, and led the Giants to their first playoff appearance since 2016. In the Wild Card round, Jones was excellent accounting for 379 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. However, 2023 saw the former first-round pick take a step back before his season was ended due to injury. Jones is on the hook for at least another year. Will he be able to do enough to see his entire contract through?
13. Baker Mayfield (1st Overall, 2018 — Cleveland Browns)
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Things turned south in a hurry for Baker Mayfield in Cleveland. After a strong rookie campaign, Mayfield failed to develop into the player the Browns envisioned when they selected him first overall in the 2018 NFL Draft — ahead of future superstars like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. The 27-year-old signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this offseason, and it turned out to be the best move he could have made for his career. Mayfield looked revitalized in Tampa, leading the Bucs to a playoff berth and a win over the defending NFC champion Eagles in the Wild Card round. The team allowed Mayfield to be himself and empowered him to lead the offense. The former No. 1 overall pick has never looked better as an NFL QB.
12. Tua Tagovailoa (5th Overall, 2020 — Miami Dolphins)
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Tagovailoa faced a tumultuous start to his career. Injuries and an unstable organization threatened his development. In Year 1, Tagovailoa was benched several times in favor of veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. Tagovailoa’s sophomore season was mired by several ailments including a fracture to a finger on his throwing hand. 2022 got off to a great start — Miami won its first eight games that Tua started and finished — but was once again derailed by a series of gruesome head injuries. Last season, Tagovailoa was able to stay healthy and he turned in his best year to date. The former Alabama QB led the league in passing yards and was elected to the Pro Bowl. Though his arm strength will never be elite, Tagovailoa is a quick processor who is extremely accurate with the football.
11. Deshaun Watson (12th Overall, 2017 — Houston Texans)
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Watson’s spot on this list is mostly based on previous accomplishments rather than recent play. Watson was downright awful in 2022. Playing his first season as a Cleveland Brown, Watson completed passes at just a 58.2-percent clip and posted a 79.1 QB rating. 2023 was starting to look better for the former Houston Texan. The Browns went 4-1 with Watson at the helm (though, Cleveland’s defense should be credited for three of those wins). However, Watson missed the last nine games of the season (including playoffs), and the offense looked better than ever with Joe Flacco starting. Watson is still just 28 years old, but it appears his best days as a QB are already behind him.
10. Jared Goff (1st Overall, 2016 — Los Angeles Rams)
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Jared Goff was set to be written off following his trade from the Los Angeles Rams to the Detroit Lions. It certainly seemed as such in Goff’s first year with Detroit. While the Lions limped to a 3-13-1 record, Goff’s former team went on to win the Super Bowl with Matthew Stafford at the helm. However, has since flipped a bit. The Lions are completely content with their quarterback situation given how well Goff has played over the last two years. Goff played well in the NFC title game and was just a few plays away from leading Detroit to a Super Bowl berth. We’ll see if he can put Detroit in that position again in 2024.
9. Jordan Love (26th Overall, 2020 — Green Bay Packers)
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Jordan Love’s first run as a starter went about as well as the Packers could have hoped. After sitting behind Aaron Rodgers for three seasons, Love stepped in and played at a high level. Over a nine-game stretch — which includes Green Bay’s dominant playoff win over Dallas — in ’23, Love threw for 21 touchdowns to just one interception. The tutelage of Rodgers rubbed off on the young QB, as Love’s play and style often mirrors his former mentor. That’s not the only former Packer QB who Love resembles. His gun-slinging mentality is reminiscent of Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre. Emulating two all-time greats who led the Packers to Super Bowl wins is rarely a bad idea.
8. Kyler Murray (1st Overall, 2019 — Arizona Cardinals)
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Kyler Murray has taken a slight step back after leading the Cardinals to the postseason in 2021. The fourth-year QB’s numbers were down across the board as Arizona limped to a 4-13 record in ’22 (3-8 with Murray). And, his season ended with an injury that kept him sidelined for half of the 2023 campaign. That being said, Murray is a dynamic athlete with tremendous gifts. It’s just a matter of staying off the injured list and on the field.
7. Trevor Lawrence (1st Overall, 2021 — Jacksonville Jaguars)
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Year 2 went a whole lot better for Trevor Lawrence The former Clemson QB didn’t stand much of a chance as a rookie. Entering a dire situation in Jacksonville under former coach Urban Meyer, Lawrence endured a disastrous introduction to the league. The tide began to turn when the Jags hired Doug Pederson to lead the team this past offseason. The underdog Jaguars took the AFC South title for the first time since 2017, and Lawrence even led the team to an epic 27-point comeback victory in the Wild Card round. He has all the tools to become a superstar, and will only continue to get better. Bouncing back from a rough 2023 should be no problem for a player as talented as Lawrence.
6. CJ Stroud (2nd Overall, 2023 — Houston Texans)
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C.J. Stroud lit the league ablaze right out of the gate, making people question Carolina’s decision to skip him in favor of Bryce Young in the NFL Draft. Stroud is extremely accurate in throwing the ball and already seems to have adjusted to the overall increase in speed. Even as a first-year player, Stroud never looked rattled. That includes crucial games down the stretch. Stroud was magnificent in wins over the Colts (to clinch the division) and Browns (Wild Card round). The Ohio State passer is poised to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league for years to come.
5. Justin Herbert (6th Overall, 2020 — Los Angeles Chargers)
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Justin Herbert was not supposed to be the Chargers’ starting quarterback so early as a rookie. Veteran Tyrod Taylor started the 2020 season as the No. 1 option, but a rib injury and subsequent trainer-inflicted injury sent Taylor to the bench. In his place, Herbert starred. The No. 6 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Herbert has special arm strength and poise beyond his years. While the Chargers’ record hasn’t been great with Herbert under center, that could change in a hurry with Jim Harbaugh now in charge.
4. Joe Burrow (1st Overall, 2020 — Cincinnati Bengals)
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Following a record-breaking campaign at LSU, some questioned if Joe Burrow’s elite play would translate to the NFL level. The cool-handed gunslinger has wasted no time silencing those concerns. Before sustaining a season-ending injury, Burrow was off to a great rookie season despite playing behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. In 2021, Burrow started in 16 games and led the league in both completion percentage (70.4) and yards-per-attempt (8.9). In the playoffs, Burrow led the Bengals to the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance since 1988. Burrow followed that up by finishing fourth in MVP voting in 2022, proving the previous year’s Super Bowl run was not a fluke.
3. Josh Allen (7th Overall, 2018 — Buffalo Bills)
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Some may have written off Josh Allen after a shaky rookie campaign. Allen came into the league with serious concerns over accuracy and decision-making. However, Allen gradually ironed out his weaknesses and began developing rapidly. Year 3 marked his breakout — a second-place MVP finish after accounting for 45 total touchdowns. Allen’s game is pure power. He’s capable of dismantling defenses with his rocket arm or scrambling ability. Since 2020, no player has been responsible for more touchdowns (173) than Buffalo’s superstar quarterback.
2. Lamar Jackson (32nd Overall, 2018 — Baltimore Ravens)
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Jackson is one of the most dynamic players the game has ever seen. His abilities as a rusher are unrivaled. By the time his career is over, Jackson will hold nearly every rushing record for a QB. Though, his legs aren’t the only reason he’s a two-time MVP. Jackson has incredible arm talent and has previously led the league in passing touchdowns (2019). The Ravens have won over 75 percent of their games when Jackson starts. Winning in the playoffs and advancing to the Super Bowl is the next step for the superstar QB.
1. Patrick Mahomes (10th Overall, 2017 — Kansas City Chiefs)
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There aren’t too many lists concerning NFL quarterbacks that don’t have Patrick Mahomes atop the board. It was a bit of a surprising move when the Chiefs moved up in the 2017 draft to select Mahomes with a capable starter in Alex Smith already on the roster. Mahomes didn’t get his first chance until Week 17 of his rookie year, but Year 2 put the league on notice. Mahomes went on to win league MVP in his first full season and is now a two-time regular season MVP in addition to being a three-time Super Bowl MVP. Gifted with one of the strongest arms in the league, there is no throw that Mahomes is incapable of making.
