In the not-so-distant past, NFL free agency was defined by splashy, long-term deals—massive contracts with multi-year guarantees that anchored players to franchises for the better part of a decade. Think Ndamukong Suh’s six-year, $114 million deal with the Dolphins in 2015 or Kirk Cousins’ fully guaranteed three-year, $84 million deal with the Vikings in 2018. These contracts made headlines and reshaped teams.
But lately? The tides have shifted. The modern NFL offseason feels more like a series of short-term rentals than long-term commitments. In 2024, a noticeable trend continued to emerge: teams are opting for flexibility, players are betting on themselves, and long-term deals—once the norm—are starting to look like relics of a bygone era.
So, are long-term deals dead in NFL free agency? Not entirely—but they’re definitely on life support. Let’s break down the evolving dynamics.
The Rise of the Prove-It Deal
More and more, we’re seeing veteran players sign one- or two-year “prove-it” contracts—short-term deals that offer a decent payday with the hope of hitting the market again soon for a bigger score.
Why? For players, especially those coming off injuries or down seasons, a short-term deal with a contender can rehabilitate their value. It’s a strategic move to land in the right system, showcase talent, and re-enter free agency with more leverage.
For teams, these contracts are low-risk, high-reward. There’s no need to marry a player for five years if you can test drive them for one.
Examples? Look at Odell Beckham Jr.’s one-year, $15 million deal with the Ravens in 2023 or JuJu Smith-Schuster’s short stints with the Chiefs and Patriots. Even high-end pass rushers like Yannick Ngakoue and Jadeveon Clowney have spent years cycling through one-year deals, chasing both fit and future money.
Salary Cap Strategy: Flexibility Over Commitment
NFL teams are savvier than ever when it comes to managing the salary cap. With rising player costs and unpredictable injuries, locking into long-term deals with heavy guarantees can cripple a roster’s flexibility.
Shorter deals give general managers breathing room. They can reset contracts, clear cap space quickly, and avoid being anchored to aging players in year four of a five-year deal that looked better on paper.
Additionally, contracts are being structured with void years and front-loaded guarantees to simulate long-term security while maintaining cap maneuverability. It’s not that teams don’t want talent—it’s that they want control.
The Franchise Tag Is Still King
The franchise tag continues to play a massive role in shaping free agency trends. Designed as a one-year, fully guaranteed salary based on position, it allows teams to retain star players without making long-term commitments.
While intended as a temporary solution, the tag has become a de facto negotiating tool. Running backs like Saquon Barkley and Tony Pollard were recently tagged, sparking debates about positional value and long-term security. In many cases, the tag acts as a deterrent for extended deals—teams can retain elite talent without locking into multi-year risks.
The result? More short-term contracts, more holdouts, and more friction between player and front office.
The Player’s Perspective: Betting on Themselves
It’s not just teams pushing for short-term deals—players are embracing the gamble, especially in a league where guaranteed money is hard to come by.
Young stars nearing free agency are increasingly willing to ride out their rookie deals and test the open market, knowing that their next deal could be dictated by team fit, rising cap numbers, or playoff exposure.
We’ve seen this with players like Jessie Bates III, who bet on himself with the franchise tag before landing a long-term payday with the Falcons. And quarterbacks, in particular, are leaning into this trend—Lamar Jackson’s contract saga showed that top-tier players are willing to be patient and strategic.
The Exceptions: Quarterbacks and Elite Playmakers
Of course, long-term deals aren’t completely extinct. When it comes to franchise quarterbacks, elite edge rushers, and cornerstones, teams still commit. Contracts like Patrick Mahomes’ 10-year mega-deal, Justin Jefferson’s expected extension, and Nick Bosa’s record-setting deal prove that some players still get the full treatment.
But those deals are the exception, not the rule. Unless you’re at the top of your position, expect teams to stay cautious.
Final Thoughts: A New Era of Free Agency
So, are long-term deals dead? Not entirely—but they’re no longer the default setting.
The modern NFL is defined by fluid rosters, cap-conscious strategy, and player empowerment. Both sides want flexibility, and the result is a market that increasingly favors shorter contracts, performance incentives, and year-to-year evaluations.
In this new landscape, the big splash free agency signing still happens—but more often, it’s replaced by calculated moves, value signings, and smart gambles.
And for fans? It means an offseason filled with more intrigue, more surprises, and a lot more one-year deals that might just be the best bang for a team’s buck.
