NFL scheduling in recent years has pushed most division matchups towards the end of the season. Take the Pittsburgh Steelers, for example. In 2024, the Steelers don’t play a single AFC North opponent until Week 11. Six of their last eight games will be against the Ravens, Browns, and Bengals. It makes for a dramatic end to the year, but waters down the early part of their schedule.
That’s not the case for the NFC South, which has already opened up divisional play. The Falcons and Saints battled in Week 4, as Atlanta ultimately prevailed with a 58-yard field goal from Younghoe Koo in the closing seconds. New Orleans took on Carolina in Week 1 and pulverized the Panthers. That lopsided defeat led to the team benching No. 1 pick Bryce Young just two weeks later. Week 5 presents another tantalizing NFC South showdown as the 3-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the 2-2 Atlanta Falcons.
We rarely get a matchup that could swing a division race this early on in the year. Tampa Bay has won the NFC South three years in a row. They even won a playoff game last year and have carried that momentum into a strong 3-1 start. Heading into the season, Atlanta was many people’s pick to take the division crown after adding QB Kirk Cousins in the offseason. The Falcons started slow, but have come up with two clutch wins over the last three weeks.
The NFC South appears to be a three-team race, at best. The Panthers have looked better since Andy Dalton took over at QB, but are clearly behind the other three clubs. New Orleans started hot but has cooled off considerably. The Saints already have a loss to the Falcons, and another loss to a team that Atlanta and Tampa Bay have already defeated — the Philadelphia Eagles.
If the Buccaneers defeat the Falcons on Thursday night, they’ll be set up nicely. Next week, they play New Orleans. In that matchup, the Bucs have 10 days of rest while the Saints only have six after playing the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead on Monday night. That sort of disparity is difficult to overcome in the NFL. Tampa Bay taking advantage of the extra days off would improve their record to 5-1 with wins over their two toughest competitors.
On the flip side, a Falcons win on Thursday would push them to a favorable spot. A 2-0 start over Tampa Bay and New Orleans would be a massive result. Atlanta hasn’t played their best ball as of yet. Cousins is still getting used to his new teammates while shaking off the effects of the season-ending surgery he underwent last year. We’ve likely seen the worst version of Cousins in ’24 already, and he’ll only get more comfortable as the season wears on.
Getting to host back-to-back division rival games is extremely advantageous for the Falcons. The home crowd will be rocking on Thursday night. First-year Falcons head coach Raheem Morris surely would love to pick up a win against his former team. Morris was with the Buccaneers organization from 2002-11 (head coach for the final three years) and was even on Jon Gruden’s staff when Tampa Bay won Super Bowl XXXVII. However, the battle-tested Buccaneers will not back down. QB Baker Mayfield thrives in an underdog role and Tampa’s talented wideouts are ready to dominate Atlanta’s secondary. It will be a thrilling showdown that will likely come down to the wire. A win for either team will have massive implications for the remainder of the season.