25. Evan Engram, TE — Jacksonville Jaguars
Evan Engram peaked as a rookie. That was four years ago. Engram is a former first-round pick of the Giants, and was touted as a vertical threat who would create matchup problems for all sorts of defenders. He looked the part in Year 1, catching 64 passes for 722 and six touchdowns – though it did take 115 targets to accumulate those numbers.
Engram faced two injury-plagued seasons in the years following, but was fully healthy for the 2020 season in which he was inexplicably named a Pro Bowler. The reality is that Engram’s ’20 season was worse than his rookie campaign, and he struggled mightily with drops and inconsistent effort. His blocking ability is nonexistent and he’s not prolific enough of a pass catcher to get away with it. He’s never had a 1,000-yard season — nor has the current Jags’ player played a full 16-game schedule.
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24. Robert Tonyan, TE — Green Bay Packers
Robert Tonyan and Travis Kelce led all tight ends in touchdowns in 2020. That’s a surprising outcome for anybody who watched football. Kelce is widely considered the best tight end in the game, and is one of the all-time greats at the position. Tonyan is formerly undrafted out of Indiana St. and started just two games in his first two seasons prior to his ’20 breakout. Is this the same type of situation we saw unfold a few years ago when unheralded TE George Kittle ascended into the elite class of the position?
Eh, probably not. Tonyan is a good athlete (6-foot-5, 240-pounds), but everybody looks better in Green Bay’s offense. That’s because the Packers have Aaron Rodgers who has routinely elevated the play of otherwise mediocre pass catchers during his time in Green Bay. Tonyan had just two scores in eight games in ’21 before his season ended via injury. He hasn’t been much of a threat at all in ’22. He’s a solid pass catching threat, but certainly not one of the best TE’s in the game.
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23. Bud Dupree, EDGE — Tennessee Titans
Through the first seven seasons of Bud Dupree’s career, he’s yet to make the Pro Bowl or earn the designation of an All-Pro player. That’s all well and good. He’s been a decent edge rusher throughout his career — which included one season with more than 10.0 sacks (11.5 in 2019).
As such, why is it that Dupree is the seventh-highest paid outside linebacker in the NFL? To put it into perspective, Dupree is making $16.5 million in 2022. Dupree’s cap hit is third among outside linebackers. The only OLB’s making more this year are reigning Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt and four-time Pro Bowler Joey Bosa. Dupree is making more than Matt Judon, Khalil Mack, Danielle Hunter, and Bradley Chubb, among others.
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22. Leonard Floyd, EDGE — Los Angeles Rams
Anybody that plays next to Aaron Donald is going to look better than they actually are. The focus required to slow down Donald frees up the other LA defenders for more favorable matchups. We saw this exact scenario play out with Dante Fowler Jr., a former top draft pick (considered a bust) who enjoyed his most productive stretch when he joined the Rams in ’18-’19. Floyd fits the same archetype. Taken ninth overall by the Bears in 2016, Floyd saw his sack totals dwindle in each of his four years in Chicago – from 7.0 to 4.5 to 4.0 to 3.0.
In his first season with the Rams, Floyd exploded for his first double-digit sack season (10.5). While it’s possible Floyd needed a bit more experience to finally break out, his leap in production is more likely due to Donald’s presence on the defensive line. Floyd isn’t playing any better than he was before, he just now has an all-time great playing alongside him.
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21. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB — Kansas City Chiefs
When coming into the NFL out of LSU, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was looked at as a luxury pick for the Chiefs. His choppy style of running, coupled with his elusiveness and pass-catching skills, made him a near perfect fit on paper for this prolific offense. His rookie year was not exactly up to par. Edwards-Helaire notched only four touchdowns, 803 rushing yards, and a less-than-ideal 4.4 YPC.
Edwards-Helaire was limited to just 10 games as a sophomore, and managed 646 scrimmage in an even worse campaign. At this point, the diminutive rusher looks more like a reserve player rather than a starter on an elite team. There’s surely time for him to turn things around. Edwards-Helaire is only a third-year player, after all. With that said, those in Kansas City appear to be somewhat disappointed in his production thus far.
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20. Leighton Vander Esch, LB — Dallas Cowboys
Vander Esch is a former first-round pick out of Boise St. The thumping backer enjoyed a strong rookie year with Dallas. He collected 140 tackles and was eventually named a Pro Bowler and second-team All-Pro selection. Fast and physical, the Cowboys believed they had acquired a defensive cornerstone in Vander Esch.
However, injuries have since zapped away any of Vander Esch’s momentum. Vander Esch has been plagued by ailments over his career. In ’19 and ’20, the Dallas LB missed 13 games while nursing various injuries. 2021 was the first healthy season for Vander Esch since his rookie campaign, but it was clear he was not the same player anymore. He remains a starter for Dallas’ defense, but is one of the weak spots in an otherwise strong group of Cowboys defenders.
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19. Frank Clark, EDGE — Kansas City Chiefs
On the surface, the mega contract KC handed edge rusher Frank Clark seems like a good investment. The Chiefs inked Clark to a five-year, $105 million deal after trading for the former Seahawk prior to the 2019 season. Clark has made three Pro Bowls in Kansas City, and was a starting defender on the team that won Super Bowl LIV. Though his accolades are indicative of an elite player, Clark has been far from elite during his time with the Chiefs.
Clark’s play has declined steadily since leaving Seattle. In 43 starts for the Chiefs, Clark has totaled 18.5 sacks. In 33 starts for Seattle (47 total games), Clark totaled 32.0 sacks. His pressure rate has gone down each year, as well. Clark has rode the reputation he built up in Seattle as a premier edge threat, but his production over the past three years has been fairly average.
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18. Taysom Hill, QB/TE — New Orleans Saints
Taysom Hill was a known favorite of Sean Payton. The former BYU has lined up virtually all over the field for the Saints. We’re talking about on special teams as a gunner, split out wide as a receiver, in the backfield as a fullback, and of course under center as a quarterback. Now, Hill is listed as a TE despite never playing the position before this year. With cap space being so precious, it’s a bit curious that the Saints would pay this multi-purpose player over $10 million/year despite the fact Hill doesn’t exactly ‘light it up’ from a statistical standpoint.
It would be one thing if Hill was the starting quarterback. However, Jameis Winston currently controls that position. At some point, Hill’s physical style of play will depreciate. He has an injury-riddled history dating back to college, and he’s already 32 years of age. Hill is essentially what Tim Tebow wishes he was as a professional.
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17. Mecole Hardman, WR — Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs fans continue to wait for Mecole Hardman’s breakout only to be disappointed year after year. The Georgia speedster is more track star than he is NFL receiver at this point in his career. As a former second-round pick, many expected Hardman to play a major role in KC’s offense. With teams worried about Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, Hardman projected to be a major benefactor given his top-end speed.
With Hill gone to Miami, some expected Hardman to see an even bigger target share. That hasn’t been the case as he’s taken a backseat to newcomers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Hardman’s inability to get open downfield consistently makes him more of a gadget player who gets a majority of his touches on quick passes and jet sweeps.
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16. Patrick Peterson, CB — Minnesota Vikings
Peterson will eventually be a Pro Football Hall of Famer. The eight-time Pro Bowler has been a First-Team All-Pro on three separate occasions. When looking at his combination of size, speed, and ball skills, Peterson had long been the prototype corner in the NFL. However, as currently constituted, he’s not the same player he once was.
The 32-year-old has not made the Pro Bowl since 2018. The once-elite athleticism he possessed has deteriorated considerably. We’ve especially seen this in situations where Peterson is asked to flip his hips and backtrack in coverage. He’s not the player he once was — though that is to be expected for a 12-year veteran.
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15. Kenny Golladay, WR — New York Giants
Former Detroit wideout Kenny Golladay took a patient approach to free agency this past offseason. Entrenched in a murky WR market, Golladay’s patience paid off as he earned a 4-year/$72 million contract from the New York Giants. It was the biggest contract handed out to a WR in ’21. From the Giants perspective, they were looking to acquire a big-play threat for QB Daniel Jones.
As a result, they overpaid for a 28-year-old who has only had two productive seasons to date. Golladay led the league in touchdowns (11) in 2019, his lone Pro Bowl season. He’s been a disaster in New York. Head coach Brian Daboll can barely get him on the field, and he’s been plagued by drops and injuries.
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14. Byron Jones, CB — Miami Dolphins
Byron Jones was brought in to help revamp a Dolphins secondary in desperate need of talent. Miami ended up making Jones one of the highest-paid corners in the entire league. As of ’22, only nine cornerbacks are making more than Jones per year ($16.5 million). Based upon the company and numbers, you’d think Jones would be one of the league’s very best.
However, Jones hasn’t made a Pro Bowl since 2018. Even then, it’s his only career Pro Bowl appearance despite earning a very sizable salary. It’s also rather strange to see that Jones has only four career interceptions through the first six years of his career.
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13. Chandler Jones, DE — Las Vegas Raiders
It was not all that long ago Chandler Jones was one of the league’s premier pass rushers. After playing well in New England for the first four years of his career, Jones was jettisoned to Arizona where his career really took off. Jones registered 60.0 sacks in his first four years with the Cardinals, finishing in the top-3 of Defensive Player of the Year voting on two occasions.
A torn bicep ended his ’20 season prematurely, but Jones appeared to be back on track the following year when he notched 5.0 sacks in Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season. Jones played 14 more games and had just 5.5 sacks the rest of the year. In the offseason, the Raiders inked the 32-year-old to a lucrative deal which made him the sixth highest-paid defensive end in the league. He has yet to record a sack for his new club, and has looked listless in the early going.
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12. Demarcus Lawrence, EDGE — Dallas Cowboys
For a pass rusher, sacks equal money. While there are other advanced stats that can tell you how effective a player really is, the all-important sack number still reigns supreme. At the end of every year, the sack leaders are almost always comprised of the best pass rushers in the NFL. Lawrence is a gifted player, but 14.5 sacks over the last three seasons isn’t going to cut it.
Dallas’ defensive end inked a five-year/$105 million deal after 2018. That’s a lot to pay for a player who had just 5.0 sacks in ’19, 6.5 in ’20 and just 3.0 in ’21. The 30-year-old Lawrence has met to make an All-Pro team. Though, he’s off to a quick start in 2022 and has already matched his sack total from last season. Perhaps lining up next to Micah Parsons will help Lawrence re-establish himself as one of the top pass rushers in the league.
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11. Tua Tagovailoa, QB — Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins haven’t gotten what they expected from the No. 5 overall pick. Fair or not, Tua Tagovailoa will be connected to Justin Herbert for the remainder of their careers. Miami drafted Tagovailoa a spot before the Los Angeles Chargers nabbed Herbert. Herbert has quickly ascended into superstardom while Tagovailoa has endured a rocky start to his career.
Injuries have certainly played a part. Tagovailoa entered the league with an injured hip, and it seems to have affected his throw power. However, the former Alabama passer has a chance to redeem himself for a new-look Dolphins offense. Tyreek Hill was brought in to help open up the passing game, and head coach Mike McDaniel was hired to spice things up offensively. Tagovailoa now has no excuse but to thrive in Miami.
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10. Dalvin Cook, RB — Minnesota Vikings
Cook is widely considered to be one of the better running backs in the league. Particularly in a fantasy standpoint, owners gobble Cook up in the first round of drafts without giving it a second thought. Cook has made the Pro Bowl twice in his career (which is a great achievement). However, there have been some stretches of his career in which he was a below-average player.
This was particularly the case during the first two years of his career — where Cook rushed for roughly a combined 900 yards during this timespan. Injuries have been an issue, and the emergence of backup Alexander Mattison has made the allure around Cook as an elite player a bit less in nature.
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9. Matt Ryan, QB — Indianapolis Colts
Ever since Matt Ryan won the MVP Trophy (and lost the Super Bowl), his career has gone somewhat in a downward trajectory. He’s still a capable quarterback — as he can rely upon moxie and experience. However, the zip on Ryan’s throws isn’t what it once was.
The Boston College star used to be considered immobile. Now, he’s glacially slow — where any semblance of pressure will impact Ryan greatly. He can’t scramble away from the oncoming rush, which essentially limits his upside as a playmaker. Ryan joined the Colts this offseason in hopes of playing behind a better offensive line. Even with Indy’s strong front, Ryan has looked out of sorts and ineffective.
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8. Carson Wentz, QB — Washington Commanders
Carson Wentz has been shockingly average throughout his NFL career. Picked No. 2 Overall by the Eagles, Wentz had a couple of stellar years before enduring multiple injuries. Since then, he simply hasn’t been the same player. The physical tools are there for Wentz. He can sling the football, and he isn’t immobile by any stretch.
With that said, his last two teams could not wait to get rid of him. Wentz unraveled down the stretch of his only season with the Colts. Though his overall numbers appear fine (27 TDs to 7 INTs), Wentz always seems to make the worst possible play at the worst possible time. At this point, Wentz is who he is — a mediocre QB who makes far too many mistakes.
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7. Jadeveon Clowney, EDGE — Cleveland Browns
It seems like Clowney is still living off the reputation as one of the best high school prospects in the history of the sport. Clowney has unreal physical traits — yet has never truly dominated any level of the sport since high school (whether it’s been college or the pros). Yet, teams still pursue Clowney with the hope they can unlock some sort of All-Pro.
We hate to break it to you, but we don’t foresee that coming. Clowney is going to be 30 years old in February, and not once during his NFL career has he registered 10.0 sacks in a single season. He had a combined 3.0 sacks over the past two years prior to 2021. At some point, the interest in Clowney as a difference-maker will start to fade.
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6. Jamal Adams, S — Seattle Seahawks
Adams is a polarizing player. Seattle gave up multiple first-round picks to acquire the enigmatic safety. On one hand, he’s excellent against the run. Adams is at his best when attacking the line of scrimmage. Few safeties possess his ability to sack the opposing quarterback.
On the flip-side, he struggles immensely in coverage. It’s gotten to a point where some believe he could best be utilized as some sort of outside linebacker rather than attempting to check receivers running downfield. Being so one-dimensional isn’t a great thing when you’re the third-highest paid safety in the game (making $17.5 million this year).
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5. Ceedee Lamb, WR — Dallas Cowboys
Ceedee Lamb has a lot to prove in ’22. With Amari Cooper gone, the Cowboys will have to lean on Lamb as a No. 1 option. So far, it’s not off to a great start. Lamb has had the benefit of playing alongside a similarly-talented wideout in Cooper throughout his young career. Now, all focus is on Lamb as teams aren’t quite as worried with their game-plan to defend Noah Brown or Jalen Tolbert.
Additionally, Lamb has suffered from serious drop issues since entering the league. Lamb dropped eight passes in each of his first two seasons with the Cowboys. This problem has persisted in Year 3, as Lamb committed a pair of egregious drops in Dallas’ Monday Night Football showcase versus the Giants. Lamb will need to be more reliable in these situations if he hopes to break into the elite group of wideouts.
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4. Keenan Allen, WR — Los Angeles Chargers
By no means is Keenan Allen a bad football player. On the contrary, Allen is quite good at what he does. An immaculate route-runner with a reliable set of hands, Allen has been the Chargers’ top target since entering the league in ’13 and has been named to five consecutive Pro Bowls. It would be accurate to describe Allen as one of the top receivers in the game, and a legitimate No. 1 option.
However, Allen appears to be a tad overrated by his peers. Allen was ranked 35th overall — ahead of former MVP Lamar Jackson and teammate Justin Herbert — and 8th among WR’s on the NFL Top 100 countdown show which is voted on by the players. Both All-Pro wideout Ja’Marr Chase and Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman ranked Allen as their No. 2 WR in all of football currently. Compare Allen’s number last year to somebody like Hunter Renfrow (who was not on the NFL Top 100) and they’re not all that different. In fact, Renfrow had Allen beat in touchdowns, yards per target and catch rate. Allen had three more receptions and 100 more yards, but needed 30 more targets to accomplish those feats.
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3. Ezekiel Elliott, RB — Dallas Cowboys
There’s a reason why running backs have a shorter career lifespan compared to any other position. Ezekiel Elliott is the perfect case for this theory. The usage he enjoyed when he entered the league is coming back to bite him. Across the board, all of his numbers (yards per carry, yards per game) have gone down. If you watch Elliott play, the burst he once showed simply isn’t there anymore.
Elliott is still a dependable back, to be clear. The Cowboys will lean on him with Dak Prescott out with an injury. However, he’s not the all-world back he was once considered to be. There are even questions as to whether he’s even the top back on his own team — Tony Pollard has flashed in limited usage. His durability is a question mark, his speed and quickness appear to be declining rapidly, and the emergence of Pollard doesn’t make him as much of a focal point anymore.
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2. Joe Burrow, QB — Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals and QB Joe Burrow made a statement in the postseason last year. They were just a few plays away from completing one of the greatest underdog stories in recent playoff history. Though they did ultimately come up short, most believe the Bengals will continue to have success for years to come thanks to their young, elite quarterback.
While Burrow has certainly proven worthy of his status as a former No. 1 overall pick, let’s pump the brakes on anointing him as the next elite QB. Burrow did not perform particularly well in the Cincy’s playoff run. In fact, the Bengals’ defense outplayed Cincinnati’s offense in each game they played. Burrow is a great talent with room to grow, but he’s not quite yet on the level of Mahomes, Allen, or Herbert.
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1. Russell Wilson, QB — Denver Broncos
The Broncos paid a King’s ransom to bring Russell Wilson to Denver. It made sense for the QB-needy franchise that has seen poor play from their quarterback dating all the way back to their Super Bowl run seven years ago. Wilson is regarded as one of the top gunslingers in the game as a nine-time Pro Bowler who had just one losing season in 10 years with the Seahawks.
However, are we sure the Broncos are getting the same Wilson who lit the league on fire all those years in Seattle? Wilson is coming off a rather dismal ’21 campaign in which he posted a career-low in QBR (54.7) and yards. Though he was hampered by injuries, Wilson simply does not have the same ability to create plays anymore. That has remained the case in the early season with the Broncos. The 34-year-old has been outplayed by a number of QB’s in ’22, and no longer looks to be an elite option.
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