1. Detroit Pistons — Paolo Banchero, F, Duke
NBA Comparison: Chris Webber, Blake Griffin
While it’s not yet a foregone conclusion, it’s difficult to envision anybody but Duke’s Paolo Banchero being the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft. With the way he’s played to begin the year, Banchero projects to be an offensive superstar. He’s answered all questions about potential flaws in his game. Though he’s not a knockdown shooter quite yet, Banchero is shooting 33-percent from beyond the arc on over three attempts per game. He’s also 80-percent from the foul line, signaling that he could improve as an outside shooter.
The NBA is all about matching skill with size, and the 6-foot-10, 250-pound Banchero has both in spades. Plus, he’s already shown the willingness to step up in big games after a huge performance in Duke’s win over Gonzaga earlier this year. A Banchero-Cunningham pairing would have Detroit back on the map in no time.
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2. Orlando Magic– Chet Holmgren, F/C, Gonzaga
NBA Comparison: Kristaps Porzingis, Kevin Durant-lite
A few months ago, Holmgren was the consensus top player in the class. Banchero has outplayed him early on, but Holmgren still possess the upside of a No. 1 pick. The Gonzaga freshman has all the makings of the NBA’s next unicorn. Listed at 7-feet, 195 pounds with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, Holmgren has incredible length which allows him to be an elite two-way player.
Holmgren is among the nation’s leading shot blockers (averaging nearly four blocks per contest). Though he’ll need to work on adding weight, Holmgren’s idol — two-time Finals MVP Kevin Durant — turned out alright with a similarly slender frame. He’s incredibly skilled and moves well for a player of his stature. Holmgren’s upside is limitless, but teams will be wary of his unique physique.
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3. New Orleans Pelicans — Jaden Hardy, G, G-League
NBA Comparison: Bradley Beal
The G-League star is separating himself as the top backcourt player in the class. Hardy is a combo guard with big-time scoring potential. The Nevada native is capable of filling it up from every spot on the floor. Creating offense for yourself and for your teammates is the most important skill in today’s game. Hardy has the size, athleticism, and offensive creativity to be a perennial 20-point scorer at the next level. The type of player who doesn’t shy away from a big shot, Hardy will be a star for years to come.
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4. Houston Rockets — Jabari Smith, F, Auburn
NBA Comparison: Jermaine O’Neal
While Banchero is more of a throwback player and Holmgren is a unicorn sent from the future, Auburn’s Jabari Smith represents the modern big for today’s game. Smith is the highest ranked recruit in program history, and he’s shown why during a dominant freshman campaign. The Georgia native boasts a complete offensive game. He’s already a great shooter who is currently knocking down 44-percent of his threes and 83-percent of his free throws.
While he’s not an elite athlete, Smith has the size (6-foot-10 with long arms) and bounce to battle down low. Additionally, averaging 2.4 APG as a freshman big man is nothing to scoff at. Make no mistake about it, Smith is immensely talented — and could even push to be the No. 1 pick by the time the draft rolls around.
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5. Oklahoma City Thunder — Jalen Duren, C, Memphis
NBA Comparison: Bam Adebayo, Andre Drummond
To this point, we’ve gone over three frontcourt players who can stretch the floor and handle the rock. Duren doesn’t do either of those things particularly well, but what he can do is dominate the paint on both ends of the floor. Duren has the skillset of a stereotypical big man. He’s an excellent rim protector who blocks over three shots per game.
The Memphis freshman is physically imposing and incredibly strong. He engulfs rebounds and seems to have a knack for being in the right place at the right time. Duren isn’t the most exciting pick, but he could be the next defensive stalwart ala Miami’s Adebayo or former Dallas Maverick Tyson Chandler.
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6. San Antonio Spurs — Jaden Ivey, G, Purdue
NBA Comparison: Jrue Holiday
Ivey returned to school for another year and it seems to be paying off. The Purdue sophomore has bolstered his stock by flashing elite two-way ability. His tools as a defender are evident. Ivey has great size (6-foot-5) and has the foot speed and strength to guard multiple positions. He hounds opposing ball handlers, and is innately gifted at reading passing lanes.
Where he’s made strides in Year 2 is on the offensive end. Ivey’s jump shot was inconsistent as a freshman, but he’s shooting 40-percent from beyond the arc as a sophomore. The second-year Boilermaker has also doubled his assist rate from last season. Any team in search of a two-way threat should be targeting Ivey.
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7. Indiana Pacers — Patrick Baldwin Jr., F, Milwaukee-Wisconsin
NBA Comparison: Michael Porter Jr.
Baldwin is a tall, slim scorer with elite shooting range. In a lot of ways, he compares to former Missouri standout and Michael Porter Jr. Similar to MPJ, Baldwin was a top recruit who signed with a lesser known program. It doesn’t seem to have affected his draft stock — as he’s currently considered a lock to be a lottery pick. Baldwin shoots over 40-percent from three on a healthy amount of attempts. He’s also showed flashes as a defender averaging over a block a game as a freshman. With his length and shooting touch, Baldwin will be able to make it rain from downtown at the next level.
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8. Sacramento Kings — Keegan Murray, F, Iowa
NBA Comparison: John Collins
Murray is another sophomore who has done well in improving his stock during Year 2. With two of his teammates last year leaving for the NBA (Luka Garza, Joe Wieskamp), Murray has shined in his new role. He’s since tripled his scoring output (from 7.2 PPG to 24 PPG) — and has been a energizer on both ends of the floor. A smooth forward with a sharp outside jumper, Murray is overflowing with potential. He’s constantly running up and down the floor in search of easy scoring opportunities. Murray converts nearly 70-percent of his two-point attempts. The 6-foot-8 forward also averages over two blocks per game, and has the quickness to potentially guard 3’s and 4’s at the next level.
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9. Portland Trail Blazers — Kendall Brown, F, Baylor
NBA Comparison: Andrew Wiggins
Baylor may have lost a handful of the title-winning squad a year ago, but they’re still stacked with talent. The best of the bunch being Kendall Brown, a 6-foot-6 wing with explosiveness athleticism and elite defensive upside. Brown reminds us quite a bit of the current version of Andrew Wiggins. On the perimeter, Brown is a defensive menace who can guard 1-through-4. Offensively, he’s more of a slasher than shooter. Brown runs the floor well and can finish off fast breaks with thunderous slams.
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10. Minnesota Timberwolves — Nikola Jovic, F, Serbia
NBA Comparison: Danilo Gallinari, Chandler Parsons
The top international prospect in this class is 18-year-old Nikola Jovic. The Serbian teenager has been on NBA radars for a couple of years. Standing at 6-foot-10, Jovic is a point forward with innate playmaking abilities. There aren’t any glaring holes in his game. Jovic is an efficient scorer with good shooting touch, a solid ball handler, and has great mobility for a player of his size. Teams will be intrigued due to his basketball IQ paired with his ability to defend on the perimeter. While he’ll never be much of a rim protector, Jovic moves his feet well — and has proven to be a capable defensive player.
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11. Toronto Raptors — Bennedict Mathurin, G/F, Arizona
NBA Comparison: Klay Thompson
Mathurin could have left Arizona after his freshman year and been a first-round pick. Instead, he returned for a second year in Tucson. In the process, he has played his way into the lottery range. Mathurin is the prototypical athletic swingman who is oozing with upside. He has great length (6-foot-7) and bounce. Mathurin bothers ball handlers with his long arms and fast-twitch muscles. Listed at 210 pounds, Mathurin also already possesses an NBA-ready body. His size should allow him to not be bullied by opposing wings. As an outside shooter, Mathurin is a potential sniper. He shot 42-percent from three as a freshman (with picture-perfect form).
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12. Denver Nuggets — TyTy Washington, G, Kentucky
NBA Comparison: Immanuel Quickley
Kentucky has had an excellent run of NBA-ready guards in recent years. Devin Booker, Jamal Murray, De’Aaron Fox are all stars in the league. Just in the past few years, we’ve seen players like Tyler Herro, Tyrese Maxey, and Quickley vastly outperform their draft slot. No team wants to be fooled again into letting a Wildcart guard slide, which means we could see TyTy Washington snatched before the end of the lottery. The Kentucky point guard is lightning fast and is also a very good shooter (47/39/81 shooting splits). On the other end of the floor, Washington has good defensive instincts and a solid frame (6-foot-3 with a 6-foot-9 wingspan).
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13. New York Knicks — Ousmane Dieng, G, France
NBA Comparison: Brandon Ingram
Dieng is a lanky wing who will provide shooting and playmaking to whichever NBA team he ends up going to. At 6-foot-7, Dieng possesses excellent size on the perimeter. He boasts one of the purest pull-up jumpers in the class. Dieng had quick, smooth release and he uses his length to shoot over defenders. He’s ultra-confident and isn’t afraid to launch outside jumpers from anywhere on the floor.
While he’s still just 18 years old, the French-born player has already exhibited a knack for finding open teammates with crisp passes. In years past, international prospects were viewed more as long-term projects. Now, young players joining the NBA after playing overseas are adjusting quicker than ever. Dieng might be a consistent contributor sooner rather than later.
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14. Memphis Grizzlies (from GSW) — Max Christie, G, Michigan State
NBA Comparison: Kevin Huerter, taller C.J. McCollum
Michigan State freshman Max Christie has all the makings of a 3&D wing at the next level. His shot hasn’t started falling quite yet, but he has excellent form and projects to be a sniper from the outside. Even though he’s struggled from the field, Christie is a natural scorer who can attack defenses from every level. Christie is 6-foot-6 with long arms and effortless shooting mechanics. When defenders begin to respect his outside shot, he has the ability to attack closeouts and get to the rim. Christie can get it done on the other end, too. He’s been one of Sparty’s best defenders this year and has great potential on that end of his floor given his size and instincts.
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15. Dallas Mavericks — Blake Wesley, G, Notre Dame
NBA Comparison: Caris LeVert
Blake Wesley is a powerful guard who has no trouble scoring the basketball. He projects to be more a shooting guard at the next level, but currently operates as Notre Dame’s point. As the lead guard, Wesley has an advanced handle and doesn’t appear to be bothered by pressure. He has a score-first mentality which may fit better in an off-ball role. Defenders can’t stay in front of Wesley when he gets a head of steam. He uses his speed and frame to get straight to the basket for easy points. Wesley is a name to look out for as the college season progresses. Notre Dame brought him off the bench to begin the year. Now that Wesley is seeing more minutes, his stock is going to rise even further.
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16. Oklahoma City Thunder (from LAC) — JD Davison, G, Alabama
NBA Comparison: Terry Rozier
Fearless freshman JD Davison may come off the bench for the Crimson Tide, but he is clearly the team’s best NBA prospect. Davison is an electric athlete who routinely plays above the rim. He has elite physical tools that set him apart from the rest of the class. Scoring comes naturally to the Alabama guard. He puts pressure on opposing defenses with the ability to score in a multitude of ways. NBA teams won’t have to worry about Davison’s basketball IQ. He already has the foundations of good shot selection and decision-making which often escapes young players.
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17. Cleveland Cavaliers — A.J. Griffin, F, Duke
NBA Comparison: OG Anunoby
Duke’s A.J. Griffin is the son of 10-year NBA veteran and current Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin. The first-year Blue Devil is a premiere athlete with high upside. NBA front offices are always on the lookout for the next batch of great 3&D wings, and Griffin might be apart of that group soon enough. Griffin is built like a linebacker with broad shoulders and a solid frame. At 6-foot-7, Griffin has the size to toggle between either forward spot. Though he hasn’t taken many this year, Griffin has converted on 40-percent of his threes at Duke.
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18. Atlanta Hawks – Daimion Collins, C, Kentucky
NBA Comparison: Myles Turner
Collins could be the hidden gem of the class. It wouldn’t be the first time a Kentucky big man slipped through the cracks. Remember when Bam Adebayo slipped all the way to the 14th pick in 2017? Collins has legitimate top-10 upside seeing as he’s the top interior defender in the class. Collins’ block rate is among the best in the nation despite being a reserve player for the Wildcats.
Don’t get too hung up on the fact that Collins is coming off the bench for the Wildcats. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander spent half the season as Kentucky’s sixth man before settling into the starting lineup. Immanuel Quickley also didn’t start as a freshman. Those two turned out just fine. Collins is a beast who will gain lottery momentum as the draft nears.
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19. New York Knicks (from CHA) — Yannick Nzosa, C, Congo
NBA Comparison: Chris Boucher
Nzosa is a teenager from Congo who is currently playing in the highest division in the Spanish league. The mobile big man has the look of a stretch-5 in today’s league. Nzosa uses his height (6-foot-11) to great effectiveness on both ends of the floor. On defense, park Nzosa in the middle of the paint and watch him erase all shot attempts near the basket. He also decent enough quickness to switch onto a guard on the perimeter from time to time. On offense, Nzosa is a bit of a work-in-progress, though he’s a savvy finisher who has shown some playmaking chops from the post. Nzosa is a project that could pay off big time for a team selecting near the end of the lottery.
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20. Boston Celtics — Harrison Ingram, G, Stanford
NBA Comparison: Malcolm Brogdon
Ingram will go a long way in the NBA due to his high level of basketball IQ. The Stanford point forward is a savvy player who exhibits an advanced feel for the game. He’s best as a passer — whether it’s off the dribble or from the post. Ingram sprays passes to all over the floor with his back to the basket. He’ll be able to find similar success in the NBA due to his pro-ready build (6-foot-6, 210 pounds).
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21. Philadelphia 76ers — Peyton Watson, F, UCLA
NBA Comparison: Ben Simmons
Among UCLA’s stacked roster, the player beaming with the most upside is freshman Peyton Watson. Watson is a tall, fast athlete who can fill a number of roles. He’ll like be situated on the wing in the pros, though he has the size and playmaking chops to act as a secondary ball handler. Watson is comfortable as both a facilitator and a slasher. He can leap off a one or two-foot base and is capable of finishing at the rim with authority. The SoCal native is a textbook example of what NBA teams are looking for in today’s position-less age. His blend of size and skill will make solidify him as a first-round pick, even if his shaky outside jumper never comes around.
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22. Houston Rockets (from MIA) — Kennedy Chandler, G, Tennessee
NBA Comparison: Kyle Lowry
Listed at 6-foot-1, Chandler would be the shortest player selected in this mock draft. What Chandler lacks in height he makes up for in all other facets of his game. The leader of the Volunteers, Chandler is an excellent two-way player who constantly battles on both ends. Offensively, he has some work to do as a playmaker. However, Chandler is a great scorer who can get to the basket at will.
He’s particularly strong at finishing at the rim for a shorter player. Chandler can also step out beyond the arc and hit threes at a near 40-percent clip. Defensively, Chandler is a pest who can cause havoc. He averages over two steals per game as a freshman. Given his strengths and limitations, Chandler reminds us a lot of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry.
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23. Washington Wizards — Ochai Agbaji, F, Kansas
NBA Comparison: Justise Winslow
Agbaji is having the type of year which will get him in discussions to be a first-round pick by season’s end. Anybody who watched Agbaji knew he had potential. It seems to have taken all the way until Agbaji’s senior year in Lawrence to finally realize it. The 6-foot-5 Missouri native already has the body of an NBA wing. He’ll be able to compete athletically from the moment he joins the league.
Teams will also appreciate his motor. Agbaji is constantly getting up and down the floor while trying to make plays for his team. The Wizards have a new found identity built on defense and unselfishness. At this point in the draft, no player fits those qualities better than Agbaji.
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24. Memphis Grizzlies — Jaime Jaquez Jr., F, UCLA
NBA Comparison: Joe Ingles
Whichever team ends up drafting Jaime Jaquez Jr. is going to be getting a terrific player. Before last season, the Camarillo High alum was nowhere near the NBA radar. Following an impressive NCAA Tournament showing with the Bruins, Jaquez now seems likely to be a first-round pick. And, rightfully so.
To put it simply, Jaquez knows how to play basketball. He can score, pass, rebound, defend, and always seems to make the right plays down the stretch. His free throw shooting needs work, and may have trouble staying in front of NBA wings. However, Jaquez is a competitor who seems to get better each and every time he steps on the floor.
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25. Milwaukee Bucks — MarJon Beauchamp, G, G-League
NBA Comparison: Will Barton
An influx of G-League graduates will once again be joining the league this year. Last draft gave us Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga. This year, the G-League Ignite could potentially be sending a handful of its players to the NBA ranks. Beauchamp is an off-guard with one of the best looking jumpers in the class. He’s a consistent shooter who can produce the same form on all of his shot attempts.
Beauchamp will be able to be used in both spot-up and off-the-dribble situations as a shooter. He’s comfortable with both standing and firing as well as shooting off of the catch. In addition to his shooting prowess, Beauchamp is a very active player that gives effort on every play. His hustle stats as a first-year G-League player indicate as much: 7.2 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 0.7 BPG.
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26. Chicago Bulls — Mark Williams, C, Duke
NBA Comparison: Kevon Looney
Banchero and Wendell Moore are Duke’s top scorers, but the defensive anchor of the Blue Devils is sophomore center Mark Williams. The 7-foot stalwart is one of the nation’s top rim protectors. In Duke’s early season win over Gonzaga, Williams did an excellent job of limiting preseason All-American Drew Timme. It was Williams’ best game of the year as he finished with six blocks and 17 points (on 8-of-9 shooting). While he isn’t a particularly creative offensive player, Williams is a good screener who has nice touch around the basket.
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27. Miami Heat (from BRK) — Drew Timme, C, Gonzaga
NBA Comparison: Frank Kaminsky
Gonzaga’s Drew Timme is arguably the best player in college basketball. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean he will enjoy success in the NBA. Iowa’s Luka Garza was similarly dominant during his collegiate career, and fell all the way to the 52nd pick in last year’s draft. Timme is limited athletically, and isn’t yet a reliable three-point shooter. He will struggle defensively given his lack of foot speed and lack of length. However, Timme is a low-post savant. He has feathery touch near the rim and an unlimited bag of fakes, spins and drop steps. Timme is also especially gifted at delivering passes with his back to the basket. A team will be intrigued by his unique skillset.
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28. Memphis Grizzlies (from UTA) — Caleb Houstan, F, Michigan
NBA Comparison: Cameron Johnson
Michigan’s Houstan has a handful of qualities that NBA teams are searching for towards the end of the first round. Houstan is one of the top shooters in the draft. He has a clean release and has range that extends beyond the NBA line. Additionally, Houstan projects to be a quality defender at the next level. The 18-year-old Canadian is already 6-foot-8 and is still growing into his body. Given his size and shooting ability, we may see teams experiment with Houstan as a stretch-4.
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29. Golden State Warriors — Julian Strawther, F, Gonzaga
NBA Comparison: Dillon Brooks
After playing sparingly as a freshman, Strawther has stepped into a new role for the Zags this season. The Vegas product is a certified bucket-getter. Strawther can score efficiently from all spots on the floor. He’s a deadeye shooter who is knocking down 40-percent of his threes (5.3 attempts per game). It wouldn’t be fair to label Strawther as just as a shooter. He’s a good athlete with a big frame, and has shown a willingness to defend on the perimeter. In a few years time, we could be discussing Strawther as one of the steals of the draft.
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30. Oklahoma City Thunder (from PHX) — Johnny Juzang, G, UCLA
NBA Comparison: Evan Fournier
The star of the 2021 NCAA Tournament returned to campus for his junior year to the surprise of many. Reportedly, Juzang didn’t like what he was hearing from NBA scouts. He chose to return to UCLA for a chance to bolster his draft stock. The skills are evident. Juzang is possibly the most natural scorer in all of college basketball. He’s an effortless jump shooter who doesn’t need a lot of space to fire away.
Juzang is equally as effective off the catch or in spot-up situations. In addition to his jump shooting, Juzang is one of the nation’s top foul shooters. The other parts of his game — namely passing and defending — need to be improved upon. With that said, Juzang is a bona fide shot-maker who can fill it up in a hurry. For a Thunder team that finished last in PPG last year, this is a no-brainer.
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