1. Orlando Magic — Jabari Smith, F, Auburn
NBA Comparison: Rashard Lewis
Orlando holds all the cards after winning its first lottery since ’04 (Dwight Howard). They’re coming off a strong ’21 draft which saw them bring in Jalen Suggs and first-team All-Rookie selection Franz Wagner. Now, they get a chance to add even more youth to a team on the rise.
The highest ranked recruit in program history, Smith showed off why he was so highly-touted coming out of high school. The Georgia native boasts a complete offensive game. He’s already a great shooter who knocked down 42-percent of his threes and just under 79.9 of his free throws. A prolific scorer with a quick release, Smith will have no trouble scoring at a high clip in the NBA. He could develop into a go-to scorer playing alongside Suggs and Wagner.
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2. Oklahoma City Thunder — Paolo Banchero, F, Duke
NBA Comparison: Blake Griffin
Banchero projects to be an offensive superstar. He’s answered all questions about potential flaws in his game. Though he’s not a knockdown shooter quite yet, Banchero is shooting 33-percent from beyond the arc on over three attempts per game. The NBA is all about matching skill with size, and the 6-foot-10, 250-pound Banchero has both in spades. Plus, he’s already shown the willingness to step up in big games after a huge performance in Duke’s win over Gonzaga earlier this year.
OKC’s two franchise players are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey — a pair of perimeter playmakers who thrive when dishing the ball to teammates. Banchero could be the beneficiary of said passes, and is also willing to be a distributor himself. Having smart passers with high basketball IQ is never a bad thing, and by picking Banchero the Thunder would have collected at least three of such assets.
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3. Houston Rockets — Chet Holmgren, F/C, Gonzaga
NBA Comparison: Kristaps Porzingis
Holmgren is arguably the toughest prospect to evaluate in the pool. He has a slender frame and lacks the optimal strength to guard opposing bigs. It’s unclear what position he will play at the next level given his unique skill-set. Holmgren was one of the nation’s best shot blockers (3.6 BPG), and also boasts some impressive guard skills for a 7-footer.
Teams will be all over the place in their evaluation of Holmgren. But, at pick No. 3, the Rockets can’t help but be enamored by his intriguing upside. Houston already has their franchise cornerstone in Jalen Green (who gradually got better throughout his rookie campaign). Pairing Holmgren alongside a playmaking center like Alperen Sengun helps bring Houston’s starting lineup together.
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4. Sacramento Kings — Jaden Ivey, G, Purdue
NBA Comparison: Russell Westbrook
The lottery balls were kind to the Sacramento Kings who will be picking in the top-4 for the first time since selecting Marvin Bagley No. 2 overall back in ’18. It’s a great spot for a team building around guard-big pairing of De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. By most accounts, the 2022 class is heavily weighted towards the top-4 prospects — Smith, Banchero, Holmgren, and Purdue guard Jaden Ivey.
Ivey has the best playmaking skills in the draft. Pairing him alongside an athletic guard like De’Aaron Fox could make for a dynamic backcourt duo that will constantly put pressure on opposing defenses. Ivey is lightning fast with the ball, and can make passes on the run with either hand. With the floor spacing granted in the NBA, Ivey will feast at the rim consistently.
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5. Detroit Pistons — Keegan Murray, F, Iowa
NBA Comparison: Pascal Siakam
Murray is another sophomore who did well in improving his stock during Year 2. With two of his teammates last year leaving for the NBA (Luka Garza, Joe Wieskamp), Murray shined in his new role. He’s tripled his scoring output (from 7.2 PPG to 23.5 PPG) — and showed the ability to create offense from each spot on the floor. A smooth forward with a sharp outside jumper, Murray is overflowing with potential.
Additionally, Murray is willing to do all of the little things to help his team win. He’s constantly running up and down the floor in search of easy scoring opportunities. Murray converts nearly 70-percent of his two-point attempts. The 6-foot-8 forward also averages over two blocks per game, and has the quickness to potentially guard 3’s and 4’s at the next level.
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6. Indiana Pacers — AJ Griffin, F, Duke
NBA Comparison: Harrison Barnes
Duke’s A.J. Griffin is the son of 10-year NBA veteran and current Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin. The Blue Devil is a premiere athlete with high upside and a premier shooting stroke. NBA front offices are always on the lookout for the next batch of great 3&D wings, and Griffin might be apart of that group soon enough.
Griffin is built like a linebacker with broad shoulders and a solid frame. At 6-foot-7, Griffin has the size to toggle between either forward spot. Though he’s regularly taken a back seat to Duke’s other stars, Griffin finished the ’22 season shooting 50-percent from the field and a sterling 45-percent from beyond the arc (on 4.1 attempts per game).
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7. Portland Trail Blazers — Jalen Duren, C, Memphis
NBA Comparison: Robert Williams
To this point, we’ve gone over four frontcourt players who can stretch the floor and handle the rock. Duren doesn’t do either of those things particularly well, but what he can do is dominate the paint on both ends of the floor. Duren has the skillset of a stereotypical big man. He’s an excellent rim protector who blocks over three shots per game.
The Memphis freshman is physically imposing and incredibly strong. He engulfs rebounds and seems to have a knack for being in the right place at the right time. Duren isn’t the most exciting pick, but he could be the next defensive stalwart ala Miami’s Adebayo or former Dallas Maverick Tyson Chandler.
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8. New Orleans Pelicans (from LAL) — Shaedon Sharpe, G, Kentucky
NBA Comparison: Tyrese Maxey
Kentucky’s Sharpe is one of the enigma’s entering draft season. The Canadian-born import never played a game for the Wildcats before declaring for the NBA Draft. Kentucky coach John Calipari stated that Sharpe would likely be the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft had he opted to returned, but Sharpe clearly believes he’ll do just fine without any college experience under his belt.
The 6-foot-6 wing is a smooth scorer who can fill it up from the outside. Sharpe is a consistent shooter who is capable of firing off long-distance bombs with even the slightest bit of room. He can fall in love with the long-ball at times, and that’s why he’ll need to add on some weight to contend with NBA wings. That being said, there’s no doubting Sharpe’s scoring ability. It’s a major reason why he’ll likely hear his named called within the first 10 picks.
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9. San Antonio Spurs — Bennedict Mathurin, G/F, Arizona
NBA Comparison: Victor Oladipo
Mathurin could have left Arizona after his freshman year and been a first-round pick. Instead, he returned for a second year in Tucson. In the process, he has played his way into the lottery range. Mathurin is the prototypical athletic swingman who is oozing with upside. He has great length (6-foot-7) and bounce. Mathurin bothers ball handlers with his long arms and fast-twitch muscles.
Listed at 210 pounds, Mathurin also already possesses an NBA-ready body. His size should allow him to not be bullied by opposing wings. He’s unafraid attacking the basket with authority even when shot blockers are awaiting him. As an outside shooter, Mathurin is a potential sniper. He made 38-percent of his three-point attempts over two seasons at Arizona.
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10. Washington Wizards — Jaden Hardy, G, G-League
NBA Comparison: C.J. McCollum
The G-League star has seen a handful of guards leap him throughout the collegiate season. That being said, a team in the lottery will not be able to resist his immense upside. Hardy is a combo guard with big-time scoring potential. The Nevada native is capable of filling it up from every spot on the floor.
In addition to his scoring prowess, Hardy has flashed some playmaking potential which has led some to believe he could eventually become a lead ball handler within an NBA offense. Creating offense for yourself and for your teammates is the most important skill in today’s game. Hardy has the size, athleticism, and offensive creativity to be a perennial 20-point scorer at the next level.
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11. New York Knicks — Johnny Davis, G, Wisconsin
NBA Comparison: Jalen Brunson
Wisconsin’s Johnny Davis knows how to put the ball in the basket. He’s a confident scorer who can fill it up from just about every spot on the floor. Davis is strong when attacking the paint (he averaged 6.3 free throw attempts per game as a sophomore). Though a bit of a lost art nowadays, Davis is exceptional from the mid-range. He has a true jump shot with a high release point. Davis gets to his spot with the dribble and confidently rises up over defenders for silky-smooth mid-range buckets.
He’ll need to extend his range in the NBA. Davis shot just 30-percent from three last year, but it could just be a matter of getting more reps in from beyond the arc. Teams will also be delighted by his defensive effort. Despite being Wisconsin’s go-to scorer, Davis put in consistent performances on the defensive end — and was one of the best shot-blocking guards in the nation.
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12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from LAC) — Malaki Branham, G, Ohio State
NBA Comparison: Norman Powell
Akron’s own Malaki Branham has played his way into a lottery grade. The 6-foot-5 wing led St. Vincent-St. Mary High School to two state titles before joining the Buckeyes of Ohio State. As a freshman, Branham quickly earned a starting role and became one of the key contributors on an Ohio State team that made it to the NCAA Tournament. Branham was a lethal two-way player for the Buckeyes and flashed a skill-set which could benefit him in the pros.
Branham was an especially efficient scorer as a freshman. He finished the year shooting just under 50-percent from the field while connecting on 41.6-percent of his three-point attempts. He can create his own shot but typically doesn’t force anything. Teams will become enamored with his combination of shooting touch, strength, and on-ball creation.
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13. Charlotte Hornets — Jeremy Sochan, F, Baylor
NBA Comparison: Aaron Gordon
Bursting onto the scene late in the season, Baylor foward Jeremy Sochan has emerged as a potential lottery candidate. A versatile player with the ability to defend multiple positions, Sochan has the look of a long-time NBA role player. Some might scoff at that declaration, but finding a strong role player at this point of the draft can be enormous for a team’s development — especially a team like the Hornets who need to support star LaMelo Ball with defensive-specialists willing to fill a role.
Sochan fits in well with a team that boasts plenty of playmakers. He likely won’t become a go-to scorer, but Sochan will thrive as a switchable defender who is willing to do all of the dirty work. If he ever develops into a reliable three-point shooter, Sochan could vastly outperform expectations and become one of the steals of this draft.
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14. Cleveland Cavaliers — Dyson Daniels, G, G-League
NBA Comparison: Bogdan Bogdanovic
Daniels is a big playmaker with tremendous upside. Listed at 6-foot-6 on several publications, the 19-year-old appears to still be growing. He was measured at 6-foot-7 (barefoot) as recently as March. In addition to his 6-foot-11 wingspan, Daniels is one of the most fascinating prospects in the entire pool. He boasts very few weaknesses in his game and is already an advanced passer of the basketball.
Much like his fellow countryman Josh Giddey, Daniels should find playing time early due to his vision and passing ability. Daniels wants to get his teammates involved, though he’s a capable scorer on his own. He will thrive in pick-and-roll situations where defenses will have to account for his ability to spray passes to open teammates. The wide-open NBA game should benefit Daniels greatly, and we could be talking about him as a star sooner rather than later.
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15. Charlotte Hornets — Blake Wesley, G, Notre Dame
NBA Comparison: Caris LeVert
Blake Wesley is a powerful guard who has no trouble scoring the basketball. He projects to be more a shooting guard at the next level, but operated as a point guard for the Fighting Irish. Wesley has an advanced handle and doesn’t appear to be bothered by pressure. He has a score-first mentality which may fit better in an off-ball role. Defenders can’t stay in front of Wesley when he gets a head of steam.
He uses his speed and frame to get straight to the basket for easy points. Wesley is a name to look out for as the draft process progresses. Notre Dame brought him off the bench to begin the year, and he got better as the year wore on. As teams get a closer look at Wesley, they’ll begin to realize what he can bring to the table.
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16. Atlanta Hawks — Tari Eason, F, LSU
NBA Comparison: Christian Wood
The Hawks could have used a player like LSU’s Tari Eason during their dismal ’22 campaign. Atlanta lacks a player of Eason’s ilk — a combo forward who can defend multiple positions, knock down open shots, and competes on every possession. Eason is a former Cincinnati transfer who blossomed into a star with the Tigers. His ability to change the tide of the game on both ends of the floor was key for LSU’s run to the NCAA Tournament.
Eason filled up the stat sheet as as sophomore. The SEC Sixth Man of the Year averaged 1.9 SPG and 1.1 BPG in just 24.4 MPG. Additionally, the 6-foot-8Â Eason exhibited a competent three-point shot — nailing nearly 36-percent of his attempts from beyond the arc.
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17. Houston Rockets (from BKN) — Jean Montero, G, G-League
NBA Comparison: Dennis Schroder
One of the youngest players in the draft, Dominican’s Jean Montero will hear his name be called at the NBA Draft prior to his 19th birthday. The speedy guard is one of the top point guards on the board. He’s lightning fast with the ability to get to the rim whenever he pleases. Montero projects to be a high-level scorer from the get-go.
His development as an offensive orchestrator will be interesting. Montero has flashed playmaking skills, though he prefers to score. In a lot of ways, Montero is a bit like current Houston point man Dennis Schroder — lanky guards with a quick first-step and a penchant for finishing around the rim. However, Montero is a far more natural shooter than the nine-year veteran at this point in time.
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18. Chicago Bulls — Ochai Agbaji, F, Kansas
NBA Comparison: Saddiq Bey
Agbaji is coming off the type of year which garners first-round hype. Anybody who watched Agbaji knew he had potential. It seems to have taken all the way until Agbaji’s senior year in Lawrence to finally realize it. The 6-foot-5 Missouri native led the Jayhawks to a National Title and was named the Final Four’s Most Outstanding Player.
Teams will also appreciate his motor. Agbaji is constantly getting up and down the floor while trying to make plays for his team. He already possesses an NBA body and should be able to compete athletically from the get-go. The Bulls are beginning to build a culture in Chicago — one rooted in size and defense. Rookie Ayo Dosunmu contributed immediately on both ends of the floor. And, we saw how the Bulls’ season was derailed following injuries to invaluable two-way players Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. Agbaji is yet another wing who will get after it on both ends.
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19. Minnesota Timberwolves — TyTy Washington, G, Kentucky
NBA Comparison: Immanuel Quickley
Kentucky has had an excellent run of NBA-ready guards in recent years ; Devin Booker, Jamal Murray, De’Aaron Fox are All-Stars in the league. Just in the past few years, we’ve seen players like Tyler Herro, Tyrese Maxey, and Quickley vastly outperform their draft slot.
No team wants to be fooled again into letting a Wildcart guard slide, which means we could see TyTy Washington snatched before the end of the lottery. The Kentucky point guard is lightning fast and is also a very good shooter from beyond the arc. On the other end of the floor, Washington has good defensive instincts and a solid frame (6-foot-3 with a 6-foot-9 wingspan). Additionally, if Washington blossoms into a true point guard it will make D’Angelo Russell far more expendable.
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20. San Antonio Spurs (from TOR) — Nikola Jovic, F, Serbia
NBA Comparison: Aleksej Pokusevski
The Serbian teenager has been on NBA radars for a couple of years. Standing at 6-foot-10, Jovic is a point forward with innate playmaking abilities. During his time as a pro in Slovenia, Jovic has exhibited good shooting touch, a solid handle, and has great mobility for a player of his size. Teams will be intrigued due to his basketball IQ paired with his ability to defend on the perimeter. While he’ll never be much of a rim protector, Jovic moves his feet well — and has proven to be a capable player on that end of the floor.
It’s not unlike the Spurs to go after a high-upside prospect who might not be able to contribute immediately. We’ve seen these sorts of gambles pay off for San Antonio time and time again. If Jovic becomes the player many envision him to be, this would be an absolute steal at No. 20.
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21. Denver Nuggets — Christian Braun, G/F, Kansas
NBA Comparison: Kevin Huerter
Agbaji isn’t the only NBA talent on the Jayhawks roster. Junior wing Christian Braun is flying up draft boards as teams covet his size, athleticism, and outside shooting ability. At 6-foot-6, Braun has the length to contend with NBA wings. He’s an instinctual defender with who averaged just under a block a game in ’21. Braun showcased his versatility in the title game versus North Carolina, hauling in 12 rebounds to help his Jayhawks capture an NCAA championship.
Braun will make a name for himself early as a hustler player who will compete on every defensive possession. Offensively, Braun became one of the most efficient shooters in the league in Year 3. The Kansas native shot just under 50-percent of the field while knocking down 39-percent of his three-point attempts. Denver desperately needs more two-way players to surround Nikola Jokic. Braun fits the bill.
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22. Memphis Grizzlies (from UTA) — Mark Williams, C, Duke
NBA Comparison: Mitchell Robinson
Banchero, Griffin and Wendell Moore are Duke’s top scorers, but Duke’s anchor en route to their Final Four appearance was sophomore center Mark Williams. The 7-foot stalwart was one of the nation’s top rim protectors. During the Blue Devils impressive run, Williams offered excellent defense while scoring with the utmost efficiency.
Teams are longing for big men who can protect the paint, finish lobs, and play competent defense on the perimeter. Williams offers all of those abilities, and even might have some untapped potential on the offensive end. He finished the year shooting 72-percent from the field, and was also a far improved free throw shooter from his freshman campaign (from 53-percent to 72-percent).
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23. Brooklyn Nets (from PHI) — MarJon Beauchamp, G, Ignite
NBA Comparison: Kelly Oubre Jr.
An influx of G-League graduates will once again be joining the league this year. Last draft gave us Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga. This year, the G-League Ignite could potentially be sending a handful of its players to the NBA ranks. Beauchamp is an off-guard with one of the best looking jumpers in the class. He’s a consistent shooter who can produce the same form on all of his shot attempts.
Beauchamp will be able to be used in both spot-up and off-the-dribble situations as a shooter. He’s comfortable with both standing and firing as well as shooting off of the catch. In addition to his shooting prowess, Beauchamp is a very active player that gives effort on every play.
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24. Milwaukee Bucks — Kendall Brown, F, Baylor
NBA Comparison: Nicolas Batum
Brown was up-and-down for the defending champion Baylor Bears in ’22, but remains an interesting prospect for teams picking towards the end of the first round. The 6-foot-6 wing is beaming with explosive athleticism and elite defensive upside. Brown has the skillset to be a strong defender, though he was never able to put together a consistent effort on that end of the floor for Baylor.
Offensively, he’s more of a slasher than shooter. Brown runs the floor well and can finish off fast breaks with thunderous slams. He’s more suited in an off-the-ball role where he can exploit defenses with his speed and leaping ability. Though he connected on a respectable percentage of his attempts (34.1-percent), Brown wasn’t always a willing three-point shooter. Defenses will encourage him to shoot from the perimeter, and Brown will need to become a knockdown shooter in those situations if he wants to stick around.
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25. San Antonio Spurs (from BOS) — Ousemane Dieng, F, France
NBA Comparison: Herb Jones
The Spurs snag another elite international prospect with their second first-round pick. Ousmane Dieng has the potential to be the most impactful defensive player in the entire draft. Just ask Pelicans wing Herb Jones how important that distinction can be. Jones was a revelation for New Orleans thanks to his defensive ability — which will likely land him a spot on the All-Rookie first-team.
Dieng might not be ready to contribute offensively just yet, but he certainly boasts an intriguing set of skills. He has exceptional length (6-foot-10) and has already exhibited an advanced handle for a player of his size. A smart team like the Spurs will be able to mask his defecincies — shaky outside jumper — while enabling his innate passing and defensive capabilities.
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26. Dallas Mavericks — EJ Lidell, F, Ohio State
NBA Comparison: Paul Millsap
Whichever team ends up drafting E.J. Lidell is going to be getting a terrific player. Following another strong season for the Buckeyes, it seems like Lidell’s decision to return for his junior campaign has paid off. The powerful forward improved all aspects of his game, and emerged as one of the nation’s top shot blockers (2.6 BPG). Lidell’s defensive versatility coupled with a improved shooting stroke (37-percent from three, 76-percent from the line) will garner him first-round praise.
Lidell is likely best suited on a team that wants to switch on defense and is equipped with plenty of playmakers. Dallas seems like an ideal fit. Ever since Kristaps Porzingis was traded, the Mavericks have been one of the NBA’s best defenses. This largely because of their new-found ability to switch nearly every matchup on that end of the floor. Lidell projects to be a capable defender across multiple positions and also finished fourth in the Big Ten in PPG (19.4).
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27. Miami Heat — Walker Kessler, C, Auburn
NBA Comparison: Brook Lopez
Walker Kessler’s transfer to Auburn paid off in a big way. After toiling away on UNC’s bench for a year, the former top prospect agreed to join Bruce Pearl’s squad for the 2022 season. Playing alongside projected top pick Jabari Smith, Kessler thrived as one of the nation’s top rim protectors. In 34 games, Kessler swatted a remarkable 155 shots (4.6 BPG).
The aspect of Kessler’s game that people will keep an eye on is his outside shooting. Kessler isn’t a plus athlete, so his ability to knock down outside shots will greatly increase his chance of finding playing time. He nailed just 10-of-50 three-point attempts last year, but showed a willingness fire away. If he can become a more steady shooter, Kessler could develop into the sort of player Bucks big man Brook Lopez is now.
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28. Golden State Warriors — Patrick Baldwin Jr., F, Milwaukee
NBA Comparison: Kyle Kuzma
Baldwin is a tall, slim scorer with elite shooting range. In a lot of ways, he compares to former Missouri standout and Michael Porter Jr. Similar to MPJ, Baldwin was a top recruit who signed with a lesser known program. However, Baldwin’s lone year at Milwaukee-Wisconsin could not have gone much worse. The highly-touted prospect struggled in many aspects of the game, and his stock has suffered greatly as a result.
The Warriors could buy the dip here on a incredibly gifted player. Golden State has shown that they are willing to sacrifice portions of the present in order to build towards the future. They didn’t trade any of their allotment of first-round picks, and instead chose to develop guys like Jordan Poole, James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga, and Moses Moody. Adding Baldwin Jr. to that list is an intriguing proposition.
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29. Memphis Grizzlies — David Roddy, F, Colorado State
NBA Comparison: P.J. Tucker
The player with the most unique build in the draft is Colorado State’s David Roddy. Built like a defensive end, Roddy actually received several Division I scholarship offers to play football at the collegiate level. The 6-foot-6, 260-pound bruiser opted for the hardwood, and was by far the best player for a Rams team which made its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2013.
Roddy was the straw which stirred the drink at Colorado State. He was the team’s leading scorer (19.2 PPG) and also chipped in other areas (7.5 RPG, 2.9 APG, 1.2 SPG, and 1.1 BPG). Opponents couldn’t stop Roddy from attacking the rim as he finished the year shooting nearly 58-percent from the field. However, Roddy didn’t just do all of his damage inside the paint. He connected on nearly 44-percent of threes as well. His range and size grants him a first-round grade.
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30. Oklahoma City Thunder (from PHO) — Christian Koloko, C, Arizona
NBA Comparison: Chris Boucher
The NBA is always in search for the next great rim-runner/shot-blocker, which could greatly benefit Arizona big man Christian Koloko. Koloko was Arizona’s No. 2 option down the stretch (behind Ben Mathurin) and showed glimpses of a player who can affect the game on both ends of the floor. His best game came against TCU in the NCAA Tournament when the 7-foot-1 Cameroon native finished with 28 points (on 12-of-13 shooting) with 12 rebounds and 3 blocks.
Koloko led the Pac-12 with 2.8 blocks per game, and is an especially impressive second-jumper. Once his feet land on the floor, Koloko has no trouble quickly contesting the shot once again. He may be a bit of project, but the Thunder are more than willing to take a stab at a high-upside player with their bevy of draft picks.
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