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Now that the 2024 MLB season has entered its third month, the American and National League Cy Young Award races are beginning to heat up. Let’s examine the top five candidates in each league, examining the impressive stats, trends, and performances that have set certain pitchers apart from the competition thus far.
Luis Gil — New York Yankees
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At just 26 years old, New York Yankees’ starting pitcher Luis Gil has taken the league by storm in the 2024 season, and his emergence couldn’t have come at a better time for the Bronx Bombers in the absence of ace Gerrit Cole. In 69.1 innings, he has amassed an 8-1 record and a 1.82 ERA with 85 strikeouts, good for an 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings. Even more impressive is his ability to limit hits. Allowing just 30 hits across his starts, that’s translated to a league-best 3.9 hits per nine innings. Gil’s incredible numbers have not gone unnoticed. He was named the American League Pitcher and Rookie of the Month for May. His performance has been a near carbon copy of what you’d expect from Cole, with a WHIP of 0.923, an ERA+ of 220, and a FIP of 2.95, placing him among the elite pitchers in the league.
Seth Lugo — Kansas City Royals
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The Kansas City Royals’ offseason gamble on Seth Lugo has paid off in spades. The right-hander has come out of the gates as a force in the team’s starting rotation. Lugo’s impressive transition to starting after years as a reliever in New York has been a critical factor in the team’s early season success, with the veteran pitcher leading the league in several key categories. Through 84.1 innings pitched, Lugo boasts an ERA of 2.13 and a stellar 9-1 win-loss record.
Lugo’s underlying metrics are equally impressive. He has an ERA+ of 193 and a strong FIP of 3.47. With a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.74, Lugo has demonstrated exceptional efficiency. And while his expected ERA indicates some potential regression, Lugo’s ability to consistently deliver quality outings has been a crucial asset, helping to stabilize the Royals’ rotation and contributing significantly to the team’s surge in the early part of the season.
Tarik Skubal — Detroit Tigers
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Detroit Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal has picked up where he left off last season. Skubal has been a crucial figure in the Tigers’ rotation, showcasing exceptional command and control on the mound. He’s 7-1 with a stellar 1.97 ERA and a league-leading WHIP of 0.877. The 27-year-old pitcher has been a workhorse, by today’s standards, logging 73 innings across 12 starts, with an impressive 86 strikeouts against just 13 walks, resulting in a remarkable 6.62 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
His underlying metrics are equally impressive. His ERA+ of 206 and FIP of 2.25 show proof of his ability to prevent home runs, walks, and fan batters at an elite level. His HR/9 of 0.6 further amplifies his skill of keeping balls in the yard. Skubal has firmly established himself as a leading contender for the AL Cy Young Award, and his continued success will be key to Detroit’s pursuit of a postseason berth in the wide-open AL Central.
Tanner Houck — Boston Red Sox
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Thus far in the 2024 season, Boston Red Sox right-hander Tanner Houck has boasted an impressive league-leading Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 2.15, highlighting his effectiveness independent of defensive support. Houck’s dominance is further underscored by his ERA of 1.85, which showcases his consistent excellence on the mound. His remarkable control is evidenced by his minuscule WHIP of 0.962 and an exceptional ERA+ of 225, which places him among the elite pitchers in the league.
Over 78 innings, he has struck out 75 batters while walking just 15, and despite throwing strikes, his ability to limit home runs, with the fewest homers per 9 innings in the league at just 0.1, has been impressive. His modest 5-5 record includes a complete-game shutout, making him an early-season candidate for the AL Cy Young award.
Emmanuel Clase — Cleveland Guardians
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The Cleveland Guardians have found a true gem in Emmanuel Clase, whose performance in the 2024 season has made him an indispensable part of the team that leads the AL Central. At just 26 years old, Clase’s season highlights are nothing short of remarkable, boasting a 3-1 record with a minuscule 0.30 ERA. He leads the league in appearances (31) and saves (19). He has yet to give up a home run in his 30.1 innings pitched, including 29 strikeouts and a mere 2 walks, resulting in a career-best 14.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. While a relief pitcher has not won the Cy Young Award since Eric Gagne of the Los Angeles Dodgers did it in 2003, Clase’s remarkable season deserves significant recognition as he eyes his third consecutive All-Star selection.
Ranger Suarez — Philadelphia Phillies
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The start Philadelphia’s Ranger Suarez has gotten off to in 2024 is so historic, it has left manager Rob Thompson to refer to it as “mind-boggling.” The 28-year-old Phillies left-hander has dominated, leading the National League in wins (9), winning percentage (.900), ERA (1.70), ERA+ (235), and hits per 9 innings (5.2). He’s become the first pitcher to start 9-0 with a sub-1.50 ERA through his first 10 starts since the legendary Juan Marichal 58 years ago. Through 12 starts and 74 innings pitched, Suarez has amassed a remarkable 0.797 WHIP and a stellar 4.94 strikeout-to-walk ratio. After a drop in performance last previous season, Suarez has bounced back in a big way thanks to improved mechanics and the continued development of his fastball/changeup combination.
Zack Wheeler — Philadelphia Phillies
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Philadelphia’s 34-year-old Zack Wheeler has been the anchor of the Phillies rotation now in his fifth year in the city of brotherly love. This season, through 13 starts, Wheeler has amassed an impressive 7-3 record with a stellar 2.23 ERA. His ability to limit baserunners and contact at a high rate has been a significant factor in that success. His 2.93 FIP and 0.967 WHIP highlight his effectiveness on the mound. He’s faced 319 batters and struck out 91 of them (28.5%) while maintaining a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.5-to-1. The Phillies are hoping for more of the same for the rest of this year and beyond after signing their ace to a lucrative three-year extension this last March.
Chris Sale — Atlanta Braves
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Chris Sale, the 35-year-old ace of the Atlanta Braves, continues his bounceback 2024 season after a few years of injuries or sub-par performances. The seven-time All-Star, who has finished in the top-6 for Cy Young votes seven times in his career, is once again proving himself to be a strong contender for the Cy Young Award, but this time in the National League. Through 11 starts, Sale has amassed an 8-1 record with a 3.06 ERA. His ERA+ of 132 indicates that he has been performing 32% better than the league average. His ability to limit walks and generate strikeouts is an integral part of his success.
He currently leads the National League in BB9 (1.3), strikeout-to-walk ratio (8.2), and fielding independent pitching (2.49). In 67.2 innings, Sale has allowed just 54 hits and 23 runs while surrendering only six home runs, resulting in a low 0.8 HR9. Sale’s strikeout numbers remain impressive, with 82 strikeouts and 10.9 SO9. Sale’s advanced metrics further highlight his effectiveness. His league-leading 2.49 FIP suggests that his success is not merely a result of strong defensive support. For the Braves, ravaged by the loss of their ace Spencer Strider to UCL surgery and, most recently, 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. to ACL surgery, Sales’ incredible start couldn’t come at a better time.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto — Los Angeles Dodgers
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25-year-old Japanese pitching sensation Yoshinobu Yamamoto has made a seamless transition to MLB after signing a lucrative 12-year contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Following years of dominance in the Japanese league, Yamamoto has quickly acclimated himself to his new team and the National League, showcasing his above-average fastball, splitter, and elite-level curve. Through 12 starts, Yamamoto has compiled a 6-2 record. His ERA stands at 3.32, accompanied by a solid 120 ERA+.
It is worth noting, however, that if not for his debut start, including a long flight after a shortened Spring Training in South Korea, his ERA would be an even more impressive 2.67. Yamamoto’s control and command have been on full display this year. He ranks fifth in the National League with a BB9 rate of 1.94 and sixth in SO9 at 10.5. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 5.43 is the third-best among senior circuit pitchers. His fielding independent pitching ranks fifth in the NL at 2.69. As Yamamoto continues to excel in his first season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, it’s clear that his talent and unique work habits have translated well to the MLB.
Shota Imanaga — Chicago Cubs
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While Yoshinobu Yamamoto got most of the media attention among the Japanese transfers this offseason, the under-the-radar pitcher from the NPB was an older lefty who found his way to the north side of Chicago. Shota Imanaga, the 30-year-old Japanese pitcher, has made a remarkable start to his MLB career with the Cubs. In his first season in the National League, Imanaga quickly garnered recognition and success, earning April’s NL Rookie of the Month award. Through 11 starts, Imanaga has compiled an impressive 5-1 record and an ERA of 1.88, translating to an exceptional 217 ERA+. His control and efficiency on the mound have been critical factors in his success.
In 62.1 innings pitched, he has allowed just 55 hits and 10 walks. Resulting in a BB9 rate of 1.4 and a H9 of 7.9. His 65 strikeouts include a 9.4 SO9 and a 5.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His fielding independent pitching of 2.78 and WHIP of 1.043 indicate that his success is not solely reliant on the defense behind him. Imanaga is second in the NL in Pitching WAR at 2.0 as well. Shota’s impressive start to the season has made him a possible Cy Young Candidate for the 2024 season.
