24. Cleveland Guardians — Hitting
Switch-hitting infielder Jose Ramirez has finished in the top-3 for AL MVP voting on three occasions. Andres Gimenez has proven to be the top prize in the Francisco Lindor trade. The former Met was a breakout star for the Guardians in ’22, hitting .300 with a .842 OPS. Cleveland’s two stars combined with Josh Naylor, Oscar Gonzales, and Steven Kwan will be a formidable lineup versus right-handed pitching. However, having both Austin Hedges (.248 SLG) and Myles Straw (.272 SLG) as everyday players is like having two pitchers in the lineup. That’s what separates Cleveland from the rest of the bunch. There are easy outs to be had in this lineup, unlike a majority of the rest of the field.
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23. Tampa Bay Rays — Hitting
Nobody is afraid of Tampa Bay’s lineup. The Rays finished 21st in runs scored – the lowest among playoff participants. While that number could be a bit skewed by the pitcher-friendly confines of Tropicana Field, this lineup lacks top-end talent and power. However, Tampa Bay ranks ahead of Cleveland due to depth. Even with injuries to key players, manager Kevin Cash will have a pool that includes Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, Isaac Paredes, Yandy Diaz, Manuel Margot, David Peralta, Harold Ramirez, Ji-Man Choi, and others, to pull from.
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22. Toronto Blue Jays — Pitching Staff
Toronto’s pitching staff ranking last says more about the depth of the playoff field than anything. There is no shortage of talent with this Blue Jays group. Alex Manoah emerged as a star and is a legitimate No. 1 option. Kevin Gausman had another great year and is excellent at limiting walks (28 walks was the fewest among pitchers who threw at least 170 innings). After the top two, it gets a bit murkier. Jose Berrios was dreadful (5.23 ERA) in his first full year with Toronto, and former Dodgers Ross Stripling and Mitch White aren’t quite playoff-caliber starters. The bullpen isn’t much better, ranking 11th in ERA among the 12 playoff teams.
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21. Seattle Mariners — Pitching Staff
The wait is over – the Seattle Mariners are going to the playoffs for the first time since 2001. Seattle punched its ticket with a Cal Raleigh walk-off home run in Game 157. The offense has been mashing, though there are some concerns with this pitching staff. Though they did have a strong ERA (3.59, eighth in MLB), the staff has looked shaky in recent weeks. The bullpen has a few strong options, but the name to watch out for is 23-year-old Andres Munoz. Munoz has surrendered a run just three times over his last 42 appearances with a 14.5 K/9 during that stretch.
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20. San Diego Padres — Hitting
A team with Manny Machado and Juan Soto should be ranked much higher than this. How did we get here? Well, Soto had to endure the worst stretch of baseball in his career. The prized midseason acquisition posted a .790 OPS in 51 games for San Diego. However, the Padres’ offensive ineptitude goes far beyond a slumping Soto. Josh Bell and Brandon Drury have not been nearly good enough to cover for struggling hitters like Trent Grisham (.183 AVG) and Jake Cronenworth (named an All-Star despite having his worst offensive season). Machado and Soto will be fine, but are they going to get any help from the rest of this lineup?
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19. St. Louis Cardinals — Pitching Staff
Among the 12 playoff teams, St. Louis ranks towards the bottom in several pitching categories – most notably eighth in runs allowed, ninth in bullpen ERA, and dead-last in FIP. While that’s certainly a cause for concern, the Cardinals improved their staff the most at the trade deadline. Acquiring Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery proved to be a boon for a team dealing with several injuries to top arms. It doesn’t hurt that the Cardinals have an excellent defense behind the mound (even without Harrison Bader) with potential Gold Glove winners at multiple positions.
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18. Philadelphia Phillies — Pitching Staff
Philadelphia has serious talent at the top of its rotation. Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola can matchup with any other team’s top two. The unfortunate reality is the staff drops off brutally after the top two. None of the other starters (Ranger Suarez, Noah Syndergaard and Kyle Gibson) have been trustworthy.
The Phillies boast the shakiest bullpen among playoff teams. Philadelphia’s 3.97 bullpen ERA ranked 19th in MLB and dead-last in the playoff field. Add in a defense that was among the worst in the league in ’22, and both Wheeler and Nola will have to be absolutely perfect for this staff to have a chance.
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17. St. Louis Cardinals — Hitting
St. Louis certainly isn’t lacking in top-end talent. Potential NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt and perennial All-Star Nolan Arenado both enjoyed great seasons from start-to-finish. Now a member of the 700-HR club, Albert Pujols has enjoyed a renaissance for his new (old) team with an astounding .895 OPS (1.146 vs. lefties) and 24 HR. Outside of those three, it’s been tough-sledding.
Tommy Edman has fallen off since the All-Star break. Tyler O’Neill, last year’s breakout star, has looked lost for stretches and may not be back in time (hamstring injury) to make the Wild Card roster. Despite finishing third in runs scored in the National League, this Cardinals lineup has a number of holes that opposing pitchers can attack.
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16. Cleveland Guardians — Pitching Staff
Cleveland has the youngest staff entering the postseason. Among the five starters, none are above the age of 27. A couple of years ago, we would have had this group ranked higher solely due to Shane Bieber’s presence. The former Cy Young winner was quite good in ’22 (2.88 ERA), though has been unable to replicate his monstrous 2020 campaign. The pen is led by breakout closer Emmanuel Clase – led MLB in saves with 42 – and the unorthodox James Karinchak. In a short series, Cleveland’s pair of flame-throwing relievers have the ability to completely shift momentum.
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15. San Diego Padres — Pitching Staff
This is more of a bet on talent than production. San Diego’s star-studded pitching staff hit some roadblocks throughout the season. Josh Hader was supposed to clean up any bullpen issues, but the four-time All-Star ended up posting a disastrous 7.31 ERA over 19 appearances for the Pads. Sean Manaea, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, and Mike Cleveinger should be among the top starting staffs in baseball. It didn’t turn out that way in the regular season (San Diego finished ninth in FIP among 12 playoff teams), but perhaps the talent will shine under the postseason lights.
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14. Seattle Mariners — Hitting
Some may have expected more out of this Seattle lineup over the course of the season. The Mariners finished just eighth in the American League in runs scored, behind three non-playoff teams in the Red Sox, Rangers, and Twins. Rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez was the only everyday player who posted an OPS above .800. However, this team has plenty of pop and are a particularly patient bunch. Seattle’s offense posted the second-highest walk rate in ’22. And, the bats have been scorching as of late. The Mariners hit 91 homers after the All-Star break, second only to the Yankees in the American League.
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13. Tampa Bay Rays — Pitching Staff
Tampa’s staff is built upon depth and versatility. The perennial playoff team has always boasted a strong bullpen. That remains the case in ’22 having posted the fourth-best ERA among bullpens in the majors. Their ability to attack offenses from different arm slots makes them a tough matchup. It will help mitigate some of the questions surrounding the starting staff. Formerly an AL Cy Young favorite, Shane McClanahan’s play dipped in the latter part of the season with a 4.44 ERA over his last ten starts. They’ll be putting a ton of faith in No. 2 starter Tyler Glasnow who recently made his return to the team. Glasnow has looked good in limited work, but it remains to be seen how long of a leash he’ll be granted.
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12. Philadelphia Phillies — Hitting
Early on this season, the Phillies looked dead in the water. The team was floundering under the guidance of Joe Girardi, and reigning MVP Bryce Harper was on the IL for quite some time. However, the team turned things around following Girardi’s firing. Entering the postseason, the Phillies are a threat to put some big numbers on the board. Kyle Schwarber launched 46 homers — trailing only Aaron Judge — and Rhys Hoskins added 30. With Harper and J.T. Realmuto also in the mix, Philly has a lot of potential. As a team, the Phillies hit .254 — the seventh-best mark in baseball. Philadelphia is in the middle of the pack in terms of strikeouts and walks. If this lineup gets hot, it can do some serious damage.
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11. New York Yankees — Pitching Staff
If the Yankees want to win their first World Series in over a decade, they will need their pitching staff to perform at a high level. Led by MLB strikeout leader Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes, the Yankees finished the regular season with the third-lowest ERA in the game (3.29). Cole is an ace, but he is sometimes prone to a rough start. In last year’s Wild Card game, Cole gave up three runs in 2.0 IP in a 6-2 loss to the Red Sox. New York has some talent in the bullpen — Clay Holmes has pitched well for most of the year — but the team will go as Cole goes. If Cole performs at his best, New York can make a run to the World Series.
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10. Houston Astros — Hitting
The Astros didn’t finish the season with the second-best record in baseball by accident. Houston is a great all-around team, and has a few studs in its lineup. While the team finished 13th in BA, the ‘Stros hit the fourth-most homers, and finished in the top-8 in OBP, SLG and OPS. DH Yordan Alvarez (37 HR, .304 BA) is one of the best hitters around, and the likes of Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman are stars in their own right.
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9. New York Mets — Hitting
Entering the 2022 season, New York’s pitching staff garnered a ton of attention and certainly overshadowed the Mets’ lineup. While that is certainly understandable, New York’s lineup deserves some attention of its own. The Mets finished with a collective BA of .259 and a .332 OBP — both No. 2 in the league. Slugger Pete Alonso smacked 40 HR and drove in 131 runs, and both Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil had huge bounce back seasons. One thing to watch entering the postseason is the health of Starling Marte. Marte adds a dynamic dimension to New York’s lineup, but the two-time All-Star’s availability is in question. Marte hasn’t played since September 6 due to a fractured finger. If Marte can take the field, the Mets will be far more dangerous.
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8. Los Angeles Dodgers — Pitching Staff
The Dodgers’ pitching staff ranks No. 1 in baseball in ERA (2.81), WHIP (1.05), hits (1,112), earned runs (450) and OBA (.210). So, why do we have the staff ranked No. 8 on this list? Let’s get into it. The top of Los Angeles’ rotation — led by Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw — is great, but we don’t have as much faith in the rest of the rotation.
Tony Gonsolin was stellar all year, but is dealing with forearm discomfort and isn’t stretched out to go deep into games. Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney have also been fantastic, but they haven’t shown the ability to pitch in a postseason setting. In the bullpen, the Dodgers are very strong except for the spot where it matters most — closer. Craig Kimbrel has been a liability all year, and the Dodgers enter the postseason without a clear option to end games. If they lose, it will likely be due to the back of the rotation or the lack of an elite closer.
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7. New York Yankees — Hitting
This slide doesn’t need much explanation. When your best hitter just set the American League record with 62 home runs and hit .311 for the year, your offense is probably in a pretty good spot. Spearheaded by Aaron Judge’s lethal bat, the Yankees finished the regular season with more HR and walks than every other team. New York also finished in the top-10 for stolen bases. While Judge was far and away New York’s best hitter, the lineup still includes potential gamechangers in Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres. New York needs Judge to lead the charge in the postseason. If you shut Judge down, you likely beat the Yanks.
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6. Atlanta Braves — Pitching Staff
The defending champions are better in 2022 than they were last year when they won the World Series. Atlanta has great players littered throughout its roster, and its starting rotation features a few hurlers with Cy Young potential. Max Fried is a true ace at the top of the rotation, and is capable of shutting down any offense. After Fried, the Braves can trot out Kyle Wright (21-5), Charlie Morton and potentially Spencer Strider. Strider struck out 202 batters in 131.2 IP — if he is able to return from injury in time for the NLDS, Atlanta has a lethal 1-2 punch.
The Braves also boast one of the league’s top bullpens. A.J. Minter, Collin McHugh, Dylan Lee, and Tyler Matzek all finished with an ERA below 3.00. Oh, and the champs also employ former Dodger Kenley Jansen and Raisel Iglesias. Jansen led the National League with 41 saves, and Iglesias posted a 0.34 ERA with the Braves in 28 appearances. Atlanta is stacked.
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5. Atlanta Braves — Hitting
Let’s start with the negatives. As he continues to recover from a broken pinky, Ozzie Albies is considered unlikely to play in the NLDS. Should the Braves advance to the NLCS, Albies’ availability is still up in the air. As for Ronald Acuna Jr., the superstar outfielder has struggled in 2022 following last year’s ACL tear. Acuna is hitting .227 the last 28 days — and just .174 the past week.
With that out of the way, let’s look at the rest of Atlanta’s potent offense. The Braves trout out a lineup containing Austin Riley (38 HR), Matt Olson (33 HR), Dansby Swanson (25 HR), Michael Harris II (.297 BA), and two strong options at DH/catcher in Travis d’Arnaud (18 HR, .268) and William Contreras (20 HR, .275). Atlanta finished the year top-5 in HR, RBI, SLG and OPS. If there is one area of concern, it’s Atlanta’s swing-and-miss tendency. The Braves struck out 1,487 times — the third-worst mark in baseball.
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4. Toronto Blue Jays — Hitting
Before the season began, two teams in the American League received more hype than just about every other team in baseball. One of those teams, the White Sox, failed miserably. The other, Toronto, enters the postseason as a trendy pick to win the American League. The Blue Jays have a deep lineup. The Jays had five players hit 24 or more homers — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (32), Matt Chapman (27), George Springer (25), Teoscar Hernandez (25), Bo Bichette (24) — and led baseball with a collective .263 BA. A top-5 unit in SLG, OBP and OPS, the Jays don’t have many holes. The Jays have some questions when it comes to their pitching staff, but the lineup is lethal.
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3. Houston Astros — Pitching Staff
If the Astros win the American League for the fourth time in six years, we won’t be surprised. In recent years, Houston has lost stars such as Gerrit Cole, George Springer and Carlos Correa — but it hasn’t kept the team from being the best in the AL. Houston’s staff is led by Justin Verlander. Following a lengthy absence, Verlander has dominated in 2022. The 39-year-old led the AL in wins (18), ERA (1.75) and WHIP (0.829). As a team, Houston posted a 2.90 ERA — trailing only the Dodgers — and saw its primary starters compile a 73-35 record. In the pen, Ryne Stanek and Bryan Abreu finished with sub-2.00 ERAs. At the backend of the pen, Ryan Pressly and Rafael Montero combined for 46 saves.
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2. New York Mets — Pitching Staff
No team in baseball can match New York’s 1-2 punch at the top of its rotation. When healthy, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are top-5 pitchers. In 11 starts, deGrom fanned 102 batters in 64.1 IP. Scherzer finished his first year in Queens with 16 wins and a 2.29 ERA. Behind those two stars in the rotation, the Mets trot out Chris Bassitt (top-10 in Cy Young voting in ’20 and ’21), Carlos Carrasco, and Taijuan Walker. In the bullpen, the Mets boast the league’s top closer — Edwin Diaz. Diaz finished the year with 32 saves, a 1.31 ERA, and 118 strikeouts in 62.0 IP — a ridiculous 17.1 SO9.
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1. Los Angeles Dodgers — Hitting
Not only did Los Angeles’ pitching staff lead the league in many major categories, but its offense also paced the league in key areas. The Dodgers finished with the league’s best OBP and OPS, finished second in SLG, and fourth in BA. No team in baseball can match the Dodgers’ 1-2-3 in the lineup. Mookie Betts (35 HR) hits leadoff and is followed by Freddie Freeman and Trea Turner. Freeman (196) and Turner (192) have more hits than anyone in baseball. Joining those three superstars are Will Smith — the best catcher in baseball — Justin Turner, Max Muncy, and former MVP Cody Bellinger. Despite Bellinger and Muncy not playing near their best, the Dodgers still scored an MLB-best 841 runs.
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Expert Picks
DF: Los Angeles Dodgers
Mets over Padres, 2-1 — Cardinals over Phillies, 2-0
Mariners over Blue Jays, 2-1 — Rays over Guardians, 2-1
Dodgers over Mets, 3-1 — Braves over Cardinals, 3-2
Astros over Mariners, 3-0 — Rays over Yankees, 3-1
Dodgers over Braves, 4-3 — Astros over Rays, 4-2
Dodgers over Astros, 4-2
HA: Los Angeles Dodgers
Mets over Padres, 2-0 — Cardinals over Phillies, 2-1
Mariners over Blue Jays, 2-1 — Rays over Guardians, 2-0
Dodgers over Mets, 3-2 — Braves over Cardinals, 3-1
Mariners over Astros, 3-2 — Yankees over Rays, 3-1
Dodgers over Braves, 4-2 — Mariners over Yankees, 4-3
Dodgers over Mariners, 4-2
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