30. Mitch Keller — Pittsburgh Pirates
Keep your heads up, Pirates’ fans. You soon will be able to cheer for your team’s No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft. And hey, maybe you’ll get a second top-pick in a row in 2022. But for now, Mitch Keller is the top pitcher you can cheer for. The rotation isn’t too strong, but Keller has some nice potential.
Keller’s fastball and curveball are both strong strikeout pitches. He pitched well in limited action last season, although his command left a lot to be desired — 18 walks versus 15 strikeouts. Once Keller calms his nerves and finds a consistent delivery, he will be a good starting pitcher.
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29. Matthew Boyd — Detroit Tigers
After winning four-straight AL Central titles from 2011-14, the Tigers have recorded just one winning season (86-75, 2016) since — cratering in ’19 with a 47-114 mark. Matthew Boyd is Detroit’s supposed ace, though he hardly qualifies. The lefty has a career ERA of 5.02. In ’19, Boyd surrendered an AL-worst 39 home runs. Last year — in 12 starts — Boyd once again allowed more homers than any pitcher in baseball with 15. On top of that, he allowed 45 runs — also the worst mark in the game. Casey Mize will be Detroit’s ace very soon.
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28. Kyle Gibson — Texas Rangers
The Rangers’ pitching staff leaves a lot to be desired. Corey Kluber was brought in last year to be the ace and he made just one start before being shut down with an injury — he is now with the Yankees. Lance Lynn was stellar for the club a season ago, and now he is a member of the White Sox.
Kyle Gibson fills in as the de facto ace — a true sign of the Rangers’ lack of hope in 2021. Gibson has a career 4.58 ERA and is coming off a season in which he went 2-5 with an ERA north of 5.00. Gibson is a decent pitcher, but would be closer to a No. 3 option on most clubs.
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27. Brad Keller — Kansas City Royals
Kansas City’s rotation — led by Brad Keller — is not amongst the league’s best. After a somewhat encouraging rookie season in which Keller posted a 3.08 ERA in 41 appearances, he struggled in Year 2. No longer balancing starts and work out of the bullpen, Keller made 28 starts and his ERA ballooned to 4.19. He walked 3.8 batters per nine — up from 3.2 — and only struck out 6.6 hitters per nine.
Keller’s lack of command and inability to generate empty swings doesn’t bode well for his immediate future. The 25-year-old pitched better during the 60-game season, but is still struggling to put hitters away. Keller averaged a meager 5.8 SO9 — a career-low.
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26. Marco Gonzeles — Seattle Mariners
To be frank, Seattle’s starting rotation is incredibly pedestrian. The leader of that pedestrian group is Marco Gonzales. Gonzales’ performance in 2020 was the best of his career. Between 2018-19, the lefty went 29-22 with a 3.99 ERA — not bad at all, but certainly not fitting for an ace.
Last season, Gonzales finished the year 7-2 with a career-best 3.10 ERA. One main reason for Gonzales’ uptick in performance was his ability to limit walks. Seattle’s ace issued 0.9 BB9 — the best mark in the American League — and also allowed 7.6 hits per nine (down from 9.3 in ’19).
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25. Nathan Eovaldi — Boston Red Sox
After starring for the Red Sox throughout the 2018 postseason en route to Boston’s World Series triumph, Nathan Eovaldi was seen as a potential star for the team moving forward. Unfortunately, the hard-throwing righty made just 12 starts the following year and nine in 2020.
Entering the ’21 season, Eovaldi appears to be healthy and ready to lead the staff. With Chris Sale out for a while and Eduardo Rodriguez returning following serious complications due to COVID, it will be up to Eovaldi to carry the staff early on.
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24. John Means — Baltimore Orioles
It’s hard to get excited about anything related to the Baltimore Orioles. The club has gone from winning 96 games in 2014 to 47 in ’18, 54 in ’19, and a 25-25 mark last year. To say things have been rough would be an understatement. As a rookie, Means went 12-11 with a 3.60 ERA, was deemed an All-Star and finished second in the Rookie of the Year vote.
Though Means performed well, there are some potentially troubling trends for the young hurler. Most troubling, Means allowed a ton of fly balls and frequently allowed hard contact. That trend continued in 2020 as Means allowed 12 HR in just 10 starts. Though he is off to a great start in ’21, Means has plenty of room to go before he can be considered a star.
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23. Sandy Alcantara — Miami Marlins
In 2019, Alcantara led the National League with 14 losses. His high walk rate (3.7 BB9) and low strikeout rate (6.9 SO9) were problematic. However, Alcantara’s improvement towards the end of that season and through the 2020 campaign should encourage Marlins fans.
Alcantara starred for Miami en route to the team’s surprise run to the postseason. Utilizing a good sinker that helped keep the ball on the ground, Alcantara set career-bests in ERA (3.00) and WHIP (1.190). While he still walks too many hitters, Alcantara cut down his walk rate from prior seasons while also increasing his SO9. With a very good changeup and sinker, Alcantara is beginning to look like a true No. 1 pitcher.
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22. Frankie Montas — Oakland Athletics
Jesus Luzardo is hot on his heels, but Frankie Montas is Oakland’s ace for the time being. Featuring an explosive fastball and wipeout slider, Montas has the ability to make batters miss. His fastball is thrown very hard and he also possesses a sinker that drops off the table. Unfortunately, his sinker is sometimes the pitch that batters seem to love. As Montas continues to develop his slider and splitter — a pitch he added in 2019 — he will progress as a front-end pitcher.
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21. Kyle Hendricks — Chicago Cubs
The soft-tossing Kyle Hendricks continues to be as steady as they come. A member of the Cubs’ organization since 2012 when Chicago acquired him from Texas for Ryan Dempster, Hendricks has been a reliable pitcher since his debut in ’14. Thanks to his pinpoint control and confusing mix of slow stuff, Hendricks often keeps opposing hitters off-balance and befuddled. With Yu Darvish now in San Diego and Jon Lester in Washington, Hendricks takes the spot of staff ace. Entering his eighth season, Hendricks has a lifetime 3.12 ERA.
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20. Kevin Gausman — San Francisco Giants
The talent has always been there for Kevin Gausman, but he has struggled to put it all together for much of his career. Now entering his 10th season, Gausman appeared to figure things out last year with the Giants — his first season with the club. The LSU product set career-highs in WHIP (1.106), H9 (7.5), and SO9 (11.9).
Gausman relies heavily on his fastball and split, with his split being a great strikeout pitch. Being able to pitch a majority of his games at a pitcher-friendly park such as Oracle Park should continue to help Gausman’s numbers improve.
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19. German Marquez — Colorado Rockies
In the second half of the 2018 season, German Marquez appeared to reach his vast potential and began mowing down batters with ease. Heading into ’19, the Rockies were playoff hopefuls and some believed Marquez was a fringe Cy Young candidate. Instead, Colorado’s season was a bust and Marquez struggled — posting ERA’s of 6.60, 5.97 and 5.25 over the final three months.
The highly-talented righty regained his mojo during the 60-game season, finishing with a 3.75 ERA in an MLB-high 13 starts. Despite seeing his walk rate rise and strikeout rate decrease, Marquez found more success overall. He has a great repertoire of pitches and is capable of shutting down opposing teams each time he takes the mound.
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18. Zac Gallen — Arizona Diamondbacks
With the Madison Bumgarner signing looking like a worse and worse decision with each start, it is clear that Zac Gallen is Arizona’s staff ace. Currently on the IL with a hairline fracture in his arm as a result of a batting practice mishap, Gallen is beginning to work himself back into shape to rejoin the rotation.
Gallen has made 20 starts for the Diamondbacks since joining the team during the 2019 season, going 5-5 with an encouraging 2.80 ERA. Like many young pitchers, Gallen issues a few too many walks — 3.1 BB9 last year — but is also capable of racking up strikeouts. Gallen features a five-pitch mix, highlighted by a nice four-seamer and a disappearing changeup.
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17. Shohei Ohtani — Los Angeles Angels
The Angels’ starting rotation is looking better these days with Dylan Bundy and Andrew Heaney pitching well. However, two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani is the clear star of the staff. After rehabbing from Tommy John surgery following just 10 starts in 2018, Ohtani didn’t pitch in ’19 and only made two starts last season before being shut down.
Entering the season with a healthy arm, Ohtani is ready to display his extraordinary talent. Not only can he hit 100 MPH with his fastball, but he can break off an off-speed pitch to put any batter away. If Ohtani can remain healthy and limit walks, he will remind the world of his insane ability on the mound.
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16. Max Fried — Atlanta Braves
Max Fried had an outstanding season for the Braves in 2020. The left-hander out of Harvard-Westlake High School finished the regular season with a perfect 7-0 record. Despite not striking many batters out — 50 Ks in 56 IP — Fried succeeded in part because he didn’t allow hard contact. On the year, Fried allowed just two homers and only 42 hits. If he can continue to limit hard-contact while also punching out a few more batters, Fried will push for a Cy Young.
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15. Kenta Maeda — Minnesota Twins
While we (and the Twins) wait for Jose Berrios to become an ace on a consistent basis, we will give the slight edge to Kenta Maeda. After spending four years bouncing between the starting rotation and the bullpen with the Dodgers, Maeda was traded to Minnesota in advance of the 2020 season. The Japanese pitcher immediately proved that he belonged in the starting rotation all along and starred for the Twins. Maeda posted an MLB-best 0.750 WHIP and finished as the runner-up for the AL Cy Young.
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14. Brandon Woodruff — Milwaukee Brewers
When Woodruff’s career began, he wasn’t pegged to be a starting pitcher. Milwaukee had it in its mind that Woodruff would be a solid bullpen arm — one that could possibly make a spot-start when necessary. Between 2017-18, Woodruff made 12 starts for the Brew Crew. In ’19, however, Woodruff became a full-time starting pitcher — and an effective one at that.
Not only did Woodruff gain velocity on his fastball, but the hulking righty also revamped his arsenal. Between adding a two-seam fastball and throwing his changeup with more regularity, Woodruff baffled hitters. Heading into the new season, Woodruff is beginning to look like a potential Cy Young contender.
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13. Aaron Nola — Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola bounced back last season after putting together a disappointing season (by his standards) in 2019. Nola’s ERA jumped from 2.37 to 3.87 in ’19 and the ace walked 3.6 batters per nine — up from 2.5 the year prior. Philadelphia’s ace was back to his top form last year, striking out a great 12.1 batters per nine and allowing just 6.8 hits. Nola is vital to Philadelphia’s playoff chances — if he pitches like a Cy Young, Philly will be a threat come October.
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12. Zack Greinke — Houston Astros
With Justin Verlander out for the year following Tommy John surgery, Zack Greinke slides in as Houston’s ace. Greinke doesn’t throw as hard as he did in his prime, but he is as crafty of a pitcher as there is in the league. Using pinpoint accuracy and a tremendous mix of pitches, Greinke often holds the opponent to a low score. While the franchise would surely be better off with Verlander in the rotation, Greinke is a tremendous option to lead the staff.
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11. Luis Castillo — Cincinnati Reds
Armed with a devastating changeup, Luis Castillo’s stock skyrocketed in 2019. The third-year player went 15-8 for the Reds, finishing the year with a 3.40 ERA and 226 strikeouts. Pitching in Cincinnati is no easy task, but Castillo often made it look easy. Moving forward, Castillo must improve his control and cut down his walk rate. Though he struck out a career-high 11.4 batters per nine in 2020, Castillo also walked over three batters (3.1) per nine.
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10. Hyun-Jin Ryu — Toronto Blue Jays
After spending seven seasons in Los Angeles, Hyun-Jin Ryu found a new home with the Toronto Blue Jays prior to the 2020 season. From 2018-19, Ryu made 44 starts. In that time, the lefty posted a 2.21 ERA. More remarkably, through August 11, 2019, Ryu was 12-2 with a 1.45 ERA. Despite a so-so finish to the year, Ryu was the runner-up for the NL Cy Young and held an MLB-best 2.32 ERA. Pitching in the AL East, Ryu remained stellar and finished 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA — and was third for the AL Cy Young.
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9. Tyler Glasnow — Tampa Bay Rays
After starting his career with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Tyler Glasnow was traded to Tampa Bay in 2018. Glasnow showed his promise the following year for the Rays, going 6-1 with a 1.78 ERA over 12 starts. And while his ERA jumped to 4.08 last season, Glasnow averaged a sterling 14.3 SO9.
If there has been one knock on the righty, it is that he has relied upon two pitches — a fastball and curveball — throughout his early career. Entering 2021, however, Glasnow has upped his game by adding a filthy slider. With this new pitch, Glasnow could dominate hitters this season.
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8. Jack Flaherty — St. Louis Cardinals
Jack Flaherty, pitching in his second full season, finished in fourth place for the NL Cy Young in 2019 on the strength of a 2.75 ERA and NL-best marks in WHIP (0.968) and H9 (6.2). With a mix of fastballs and sliders, Flaherty dominated right-handed hitters that year and quickly announced himself as one of the best young pitchers in baseball.
The 2020 season represented a slight step back, however. St. Louis’ young ace struggled through the 60-game campaign, finishing the year with a career-worst 4.91 ERA and also saw his walk-rate climb to 3.6 BB9. In order for the Cardinals to push for a spot in the playoffs, Flaherty will need to pitch much better than he did last season.
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7. Yu Darvish — San Diego Padres
For Darvish to flourish, he needs to pitch with confidence. Fortunately for both the pitcher and the Padres, Darvish appeared to regain his confidence late in the 2019 season and carried that momentum throughout the 60-game campaign last year. Darvish was sensational in Chicago en route to a Cy Young runner-up finish.
Darvish won an NL-best eight games and also had the National League’s best FIP (2.23). More impressively, Darvish continued to strike batters out at a high rate (11.0 per nine) while cutting down on walks — from 4.7 in ’18 to 1.7 BB9 last season.
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6. Lucas Giolito — Chicago White Sox
Giolito parlayed an extraordinary high school career into being selected 16th overall in the 2012 MLB Draft. Though it took the California native four years to reach the Majors — and another three years to start reaching his potential — the future remains incredibly bright for Giolito.
Chicago’s ace made a huge jump in ’19, allowing 64 fewer runs than the year before, issuing 33 fewer walks, striking out 103 more batters and leading the league in complete games (3) — including two shutouts. Only 26, Giolito is now a bonafide Cy Young contender.
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5. Max Scherzer — Washington Nationals
Stephen Strasburg is an ace in his own right, no doubt about it. However — at least for one more season — Max Scherzer must be considered Washington’s No. 1 ace. 2019 marked the first time since his rookie year that Scherzer failed to start at least 30 games. Last year, Mad Max struggled through his worst season since 2011 — going 5-4 with a 3.74 ERA and 3.1 BB9. Now 36, Scherzer’s time as an elite ace is nearing its end.
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4. Trevor Bauer — Los Angeles Dodgers
Let’s be honest, the Dodgers have three aces in their starting rotation. You can rank Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer, and Walker Buehler in any order and you would find no complaints here. But for this exercise, we will pick the pitcher who won last year’s National League Cy Young.
Pitching for the Reds, Bauer dominated the 60-game season. With a nasty arsenal at his disposal, Bauer struck out 100 batters in 73 IP, finished the year with an NL-best 1.73 ERA and 0.795 WHIP, and led baseball with an ERA+ of 284. As a result, Bauer signed a three-year/$102 million contract — including record salaries for 2021 and ’22.
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3. Shane Bieber — Cleveland Indians
In 2019, the Cleveland Indians had a starting rotation that included Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, and Shane Bieber. At that time, it would have been understandable to view either Bauer or Clevinger as the ace. Bieber arrived as an ace that year, going 15-8 with a 3.28 ERA en route to finishing fourth for the Cy Young.
In 2020, however, Bieber solidified himself as one of baseball’s elite hurlers. The UC Santa Barbara product won the Cy Young in convincing fashion and finished fourth for AL MVP. Bieber led baseball in wins (8), ERA (1.63), and strikeouts (122). Entering his age-26 season, it is clear Bieber will be an ace for many years to come.
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2. Gerrit Cole — New York Yankees
At worst, Cole is one of the two best pitchers in baseball. The recipient of a $324 million contract two offseasons ago, Cole projects as a high-end pitcher for at least the next five years. Blessed with immense power, devastating breaking pitches and good control, Cole fanned an MLB-best 326 batters in 2019. In his first year pitching for the Yankees, Cole finished fourth for the Cy Young and posted his third-straight sub-3.00 ERA season.
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1. Jacob deGrom — New York Mets
Hands down the top pitcher in baseball, Jacob deGrom is a terror. deGrom followed up his Cy Young win in ’18 with another Cy Young trophy in ’19. Despite owning a mediocre 21-17 record over that two-year span, deGrom holds a 2.05 ERA, 0.941 WHIP and has fanned 524 batters (11.2 SO9). And while his quest for three-straight Cy Young wins came up just short — deGrom finished third — it was of no fault of his own. deGrom led the NL in strikeouts for the second year in a row and set a career-high for SO9 with 13.8.
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