30. Roansy Contreras — Pittsburgh Pirates
Here you go, kid. The 23-year-old out of the D.R. has been given the reins to the Pittsburgh staff. At only 6-feet tall and 175 pounds, the diminutive Contreras can still rev up a fastball close to 100 mph. In terms of percentile rankings, Contreras ranks in the 80-85th percentile in four categories (Chase Rate, Fastball Velocity, Fastball Spin, Curve Spin). While Contreras might not turn into the next Pedro Martinez, the Pirates do have a talented young arm to build around. For that reason, fans should be excited.
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29. Josiah Gray — Washington Nationals
One of the prized pieces in the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner trade, the Nationals hope former Dodger prospect Josiah Gray can eventually become a stalwart in Washington’s rotation. Gray hasn’t posted the best overall numbers over his short career (5.17 ERA), but this is a guy who has a ton of pedigree and upside. We’re just a few years removed from Gray ranking higher in the Dodgers farm system than National League All-Star Tony Gonsolin. Gray already boasts a plus slider and curveball. If his fastball ever develops into an elite pitch, Gray will have no trouble producing at a high level.
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28. Paul Blackburn — Oakland Athletics
The Athletics project to be one of the worst teams in all of baseball in 2023. As such, it shouldn’t be too surprising to see their ace — Paul Blackburn — ranked this low on our list. Having posted middling numbers throughout his career, Blackburn came out of the gates strong in ’22. The 29-year-old parlayed an excellent April and May into his first career All-Star appearance. However, after having a 1.70 ERA through his first nine starts, Blackburn’s took a massive downturn. From May 30 on, the Oakland hurler posted a putrid 6.22 ERA. While he is a decent pitcher, Blackburn wouldn’t be a No. 1 on most staffs around the league.
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27. Hunter Greene — Cincinnati Reds
The flamethrower out of Southern California will be given the chance to develop into the ace of this team in Cincinnati. When looking into Green’s analytical breakdown, you realize he’s the hardest-thrower on average in baseball. He throws more 100+ mph pitches than any other pitcher in the game today. For Greene, it’s all about refining his stuff — and improving his secondary pitches. At only 23, the LA native is still not close to touching his upside. He went 5-13 with a 4.44 ERA last year. We have to think he’ll be far more comfortable in 2023 knowing that he’ll be ‘the man’ in Cincinnati.
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26. Brady Singer — Kansas City Royals
The former first-round pick is starting to figure things out. His first two years in the Majors were rather unspectacular — with Singer combining to go 9-15 with an ERA around 4.50. Last year was his coming out party. Singer went 10-5 with a solid 3.23 ERA. He allowed only 140 hits in 153.1 IP, and his walks total decreased by nearly 20 from the previous year. If you’re a fantasy baseball player, we’d buy some Singer stock. He’s just scratching the surface on his immense potential.
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25. German Marquez — Colorado Rockies
Everyone knows the story when it comes to pitchers in Colorado — it is nearly impossible to post ‘great’ numbers. The Rockies have two very talented pitchers atop their rotation in Kyle Freeland and German Marquez. Freeland finished fourth for the NL Cy Young in 2018, and Marquez is a former All-Star. Both struggled last season — especially Marquez — but we envision the flamethrower to have a better 2023. The former All-Star has a five-pitch mix, but is at his best when his sinker is dialed in. When right, the pitch looks like Marquez’s four-seam fastball until it drops off the plate at the last second.
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24. Dean Kremer — Baltimore Orioles
The O’s are coming off a promising season in which they rattled off 83 wins — their highest total since 2016. While several offensive pieces seem to be in place, building up the rotation will be key for Baltimore returning to the postseason. For now, the Orioles have a few promising arms, but are lacking a true ace. The team’s leader in innings pitched (Jordan Lyles) is in Kansas City now. However, Stockton native Dean Kremer was arguably the team’s most effective pitcher over the course of the season. Kremer’s team-leading 2.8 WAR was nearly double the amount of the next closest Baltimore starter.
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23. Sonny Gray — Minnesota Twins
At age 33, Gray is still atop the Twins’ rotation. We are a bit curious to see how he’ll fare this season. He hasn’t enjoyed a double-digit win total for a single season since 2019 (coinciding with his last All-Star appearance). Gray’s velocity is down from where it once was, though that’s enabled him to mix his pitches up better with the utilization of his off-speed pitches. Gray still should be able to provide the Twins with a competitive force as a frontline guy.
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22. Jameson Taillon — Chicago Cubs
In need of an ace, the Cubs lured Taillon away from the Yankees with a lucrative multi-year deal (4-years/$68 million). Talent has never been a problem for Taillon. For years, we were waiting for him to break out as a real star with the Pittsburgh Pirates. That didn’t exactly come to fruition. He moved to the Yankees and enjoyed the best year of his career in 2022. Taillon set career-highs in starts and wins (going 14-5). At pitcher-friendly Wrigley Field, Taillon — only 31 years of age — should be a nice fit.
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21. Eduardo Rodriguez — Detroit Tigers
The lefty out of Venezuela was brought to Detroit in order to solve its issues atop its rotation. Rodriguez inked a massive $77 million contract at the start of last year. The returns? Not great — Rodriguez went 5-5 with a 4.05 ERA. While this wasn’t a great beginning to the deal, Rodriguez is a talented player. There’s plenty of time for him to turn things around for the upstart Tigers.
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20. Chris Sale — Boston Red Sox
Stymied by injuries over the last several seasons, there’s no guarantee Chris Sale will ever return to his previous form again. Sale was previously one of the unquestioned best arms in the league. From his debut in 2010 until Boston’s World Series campaign in 2018, Sale held a career 2.89 ERA with seven top-6 Cy Young finishes. He’s accrued over 2,000 career strikeouts, and is the all-time leader in SO/9 (11.1) and SO/W (5.33). Sale has appeared in just 11 games over the last three years with mixed results. However, after seeing how Justin Verlander responded after missing a lengthy period of time, there remains hope the veteran Sale can return to the mound in ’23 and dominate once again.
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19. Jack Flaherty — St. Louis Cardinals
Both Flaherty and the Cardinals are looking for the ace to bounce back from a lost 2022. Flaherty only made eight starts before being shelved for the entire year. There’s some worry about his durability — having made single-digit start totals in two of the last three seasons. When healthy, there’s no denying Flaherty’s value to both the pitching staff and the team. He has power stuff on all levels, and is as competitive a pitcher as there is.
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18. Logan Webb — San Francisco Giants
Logan Webb and the San Francisco Giants entered the 2022 season with massive expectations. The club shocked the league in 2021 by winning 107 games, and Webb introduced himself to the country with a pair of dominant outings against the Dodgers in the postseason. Last season, Webb and Carlos Rodon formed a fearsome 1-2 punch atop the rotation. With Rodon now a Yankee, Webb is the clear No. 1. In ’22, Webb led the Giants with 15 wins and posted an impressive 2.90 ERA. Webb utilizes a four-pitch mix, but predominantly baffles hitters with his sinker, slider and change-up. San Francisco’s ace has Cy Young potential.
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17. Yu Darvish — San Diego Padres
Last year, the San Diego Padres trotted out a starting rotation that included Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea, Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger. Darvish and Musgrove were clearly the leaders in the pack, and we would listen to an argument for Musgrove being the staff ace. However, we are riding with Darvish. The veteran has one of the biggest arsenals in the league — regularly throwing six pitches throughout a start. Although he didn’t strike out as many batters per nine in 2022 as in year’s past, Darvish still generates plenty of whiffs. In four starts in the ’22 postseason, Darvish had a 2.88 ERA and went 2-1.
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16. Shane Bieber — Cleveland Guardians
The Southern California native will yet again assume the role as the ace for Cleveland. The two-time All-Star is coming off a solid year in which he won 13 gams and registered a rock-solid 2.88 ERA. As he’s approaching his 28th birthday, Bieber is just approaching his prime as a frontline starter. Barring injury, he should be in position to have yet another good year. The Guardians will need Bieber to be elite for the team to be a title contender within the American League.
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15. Framber Valdez — Houston Astros
The departure of Justin Verlander means there is a new ace in town for the defending World Series champions. With Verlander now in New York, Houston will rely on its young stars to lead the rotation. Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy combined to win 28 games and posted sub-4.00 ERAs. Christian Javier struck out 11.7 batters per nine, and finished with a gaudy WHIP (0.95) and ERA (2.54). Javier certainly has an argument to be the No. 1, but we’re rolling with Framber Valdez. The 29-year-old finished 2022 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. An All-Star and fifth place finisher for the Cy Young, Valdez was nails in the postseason. Not only did he go 3-0 in his four starts (Houston won all four games), but he allowed a total of four earned runs over 25.0 IP. In the World Series-clinching Game 6, Valdez allowed two hits, one run, and struck out nine over 6.0 IP.
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14. Alek Manoah — Toronto Blue Jays
Brash and confident, Alex Manoah has wasted no time making a name for himself with the Blue Jays. At just 24 years old, Manoah enjoyed a breakout campaign in ’22 as a sophomore pitcher. Manoah posted a 2.24 ERA, 0.992 WHIP and collected 16 wins en route to an All-Star nod and a third-place AL Cy Young finish. The 6-foot-6 right-hander is extremely competitive, and never backs down no matter who he’s facing on the mound. Toronto has quietly built one of the better rotations in the league (Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Christ Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi, and Hyun Jin-Ryu) with Manoah leading the way.
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13. Zac Gallen — Arizona Diamondbacks
Zac Gallen is one of the most underrated pitchers in the league today. Largely due to the fact that Gallen plays on the west coast for the mediocre Arizona Diamondbacks, the 27-year-old has flown under the radar for much of his career. In 2020, Gallen had a 2.75 ERA and finished ninth for the NL Cy Young. After a disappointing ’21, the budding ace delivered in ’22. In addition to going 12-4 with a 2.54 ERA, Gallen led the NL in WHIP (0.913) and allowed an MLB-best 5.9 H/9. Gallen generates a ton of spin on his fastball and cutter, and often keeps hitters unbalanced with a good mix of off-speed pitches (curve, change-up).
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12. Shohei Ohtani — Los Angeles Angels
While the Angels did well by adding Tyler Anderson — 15-5 with a 2.57 ERA during an All-Star season for the Los Angeles Dodgers last year — Shohei Ohtani is the clear ace of the staff. The best two-way player the game has ever seen, Ohtani reached new heights on the mound in 2022. En route to finishing fourth for the AL Cy Young, Ohtani led the American League with 11.9 SO/9 and set career-highs across the board. Ohtani routinely devastated hitters with his mix of velocity and break. He won 15 games while posting a 2.33 ERA, fanned 219 hitters, and ended the year with a 1.012 WHIP. Ohtani is one of the game’s elite pitchers.
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11. Luis Castillo — Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have one of the best starting rotations in the American League. In addition to Luis Castillo, our pick for staff ace, Seattle’s starting five includes the likes of 2021 AL Cy Young Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Marco Gonzales. Castillo was acquired last season from Cincinnati, and the marquee pickup didn’t disappoint. In 11 regular season starts, Castillo averaged 10.6 SO/9 and made seven quality starts. In the postseason, Castillo was great. The ace allowed zero runs over 7.1 IP in a Wild Card triumph over the Toronto Blue Jays, and yielded three runs in 7.0 IP in a loss to the eventual World Series champion Houston Astros. We expect Castillo to be a Cy Young candidate this season.
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10. Dylan Cease — Chicago White Sox
Lucas Giolito was projected as the ace heading into last year. Then — out of nowhere — Dylan Cease exploded as one of baseball’s most promising arms. The 27-year-old righty has a fastball routinely sitting in the 97-100 mph range. He had the third-best ERA in baseball (2.21), the second-best WAR mark, and was fifth in strikeouts. This offseason, he’s reportedly working to add a changeup to his repertoire (which includes a wicked slider and a ridiculous knucklecurve).
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9. Max Fried — Atlanta Braves
Last year’s NL Rookie of the Year runner-up Spencer Strider made waves in his first full season. The 24-year-old flamethrower may very well become Atlanta’s ace in due time, but for now Southern California native Max Fried is the No. 1 option in the Braves staff. Time and time again, Fried has delivered in the biggest moments for Atlanta. While he did struggle in his lone playoff appearance in ’22, Fried is coming off his best regular season performance (second-place finish for NL Cy Young). Additionally, Fried has taken the mantle as one of the best defensive players at his position having won three straight Gold Glove awards in the National League.
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8. Aaron Nola — Philadelphia Phillies
The defending National League champions have the luxury of boasting two ace-caliber pitchers in their starting rotation. Former Mets hurler Zack Wheeler has been especially productive since coming over to Philadelphia. In three years with the Phillies, Wheeler has posted a sterling 2.82 ERA and placed second in Cy Young voting in ’21. Lifelong Phillie Aaron Nola is no slouch either. Finishing fourth in Cy Young voting last season, Nola has elite wipeout stuff (career 10.1 SO/9) while exhibiting some of the best control of any arm in the league (led the Majors with a 1.3 BB/9).
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7. Gerrit Cole — New York Yankees
While it’s fair to question Cole’s performances in big games since joining the Yankees, there’s no doubting he’s New York’s most explosive arm and still one of the best pitchers in the game. Cole has been revered as an elite talent dating all the way back to his time in Pittsburgh. However, it was a move to Houston which truly unlocked his potential. A two-year run with the Astros led to the inking of a massive $324 million deal with the Yankees. Since joining the Bronx Bombers, Cole has three top-10 Cy Young finishes and has collected nearly 600 punch-outs in 455 innings pitched. However, Cole has been especially prone to the long-ball in recent seasons. He surrendered a league-leading 33 HR last year which ballooned his ERA to 3.50 (his highest since 2017). Cole is still somebody who can dominate any given game, but he hasn’t been overly reliable since joining the Yankees.
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6. Shane McClanahan — Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have a penchant for developing pitching, and McClanahan is the most recent example of that. The lefty hurler was a first-round pick in 2018, making his major league debut two years later. McClanahan finished seventh in Rookie of the Year voting two seasons ago, and was even better in Year 2. As a sophomore, McClanahan posted a 2.54 ERA over 166.1 IP while earning an All-Star spot and a sixth-place finish in the Cy Young race. At just 25 years old, McClanahan projects to be one of the best pitchers in the game for the foreseeable future.
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5. Julio Urias — Los Angeles Dodgers
With Walker Buehler on the mend following Tommy John surgery, Julio Urias enters the 2023 season as the Los Angeles Dodgers’ ace. Despite being one of the best pitchers in baseball for the past two seasons, Urias continues to be overlooked by many. The lefty is 37-10 since 2021 and has a 2.57 ERA in that time — including a National League best 2.16 last season. Urias’ mix of pitches is improving each year he takes the mound. A free agent following the ’23 season, Urias will be the top pitcher on the market next offseason. Will the Dodgers splurge to keep him?
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4. Sandy Alcantara — Miami Marlins
Miami boasts one of the best, young rotations in baseball even after sending a plus-arm in Pablo Lopez to the Minnesota Twins. However, there is only one Cy Young winner on the staff. MLB’s ironman from a season ago, Sandy Alcantara gutted his way to a National League Cy Young award in ’22. The Marlins’ ace threw 228 innings over 32 starts, compiling six complete games and one shutout. While Alcantara’s fastball exceeds triple digits on the radar gun, the 27-year-old isn’t among the league’s top strikeout producers. Instead, Alcantara relies on an elite sinker-changeup combo to induce weakly hit groundballs.
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3. Corbin Burnes — Milwaukee Brewers
Burnes is a beast — plain and simple. He has an assortment of six pitches which he uses with great effectiveness. His slider is disgusting, and his cutter is nearly unhittable when being launched up to 98 mph. Four of his five professional seasons have included ERA totals under 3.00. Burnes is coming off a career-high 243 punch-outs in only 202.0 IP. As long as Burnes is leading the Brew Crew, they have a chance to be competitive in the central. If Burnes ever went on the trade market, the Dodgers would be salivating at the thought of bringing back the California native to his home state.
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2. Justin Verlander — New York Mets
New York’s one-two punch are a pair of former Cy Young winners approaching 40 who remain among the top arms in the league. Max Scherzer enjoyed a brilliant season with the Mets last year, but he takes a slight backseat to Justin Verlander — who has won two of the last three Cy Young awards in the American League. Verlander seems to be immune to aging effects, as the 39-year-old hurler was at his very best in 2022. After missing each of the two previous seasons, Verlander returned to the mound and posted a 1.75 ERA over 28 starts. New York is hoping the future Hall of Famer can stay healthier than its previous ace Jacob deGrom.
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1. Jacob deGrom — Texas Rangers
For the second offseason in a row, the second-best team in Texas made huge moves. A year after signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to stack the middle infield, Texas bolstered its starting rotation with a slew of moves. In addition to adding Jacob deGrom, the Rangers brought in Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney. Of course, deGrom is the biggest get of the group. When healthy, deGrom is arguably the best pitcher in baseball. With that being said, deGrom is rarely on the field. The ace has made 38 starts since 2020 — including just 11 last season. Will a change of scenery help keep him on the field? We have our doubts.
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