Will the Dodgers Win This Year’s World Series?
Brightcast
Baseball’s new superteam is here.
In the wake of a highly successful offseason, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the prohibitive favorite to win the World Series heading into this upcoming season. As we’ve seen year after year, nothing is a guarantee. Talent on paper is one thing, whereas the on-field product — particularly in the playoffs — is a whole other beast altogether.
Will this team get over the hump and win a title? Instead of offering the obvious reasons as to why the Dodgers are the favorite, let us zag the other way and talk about why this team will not hoist a trophy in October.
1. Starting Pitching Health
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The upside of this pitching staff is quite high. However, there’s a gigantic caveat looming over this entire group…*if it stays healthy.
While he can slug at the dish, Shohei Ohtani will not be eligible to pitch reportedly until 2025. Tyler Glasnow has never thrown more than 120.0 innings in a single season. Walker Buehler is still working his way back from a serious elbow injury. Recent signee James Paxton has endured a plethora of injuries throughout his career. Like Buehler, Dustin May is also not yet quite ready to go after rehabbing from a similar elbow ailment. Longtime starter Tony Gonsolin figures to be lost for this entire year after also having the Tommy John procedure this past August.
Collectively speaking, the group of pitchers on this 40-man roster have combined to have 12 (!) Tommy John surgeries throughout their careers. While the talent within this group is exceptional, keeping everyone healthy throughout the regular season for a presumed run in the playoffs might be unrealistic.
2. A Top-Heavy Lineup
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The top of the lineup (Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman) will mash. It’s the best trio in all of baseball, and likely one of the best three-men groups in the history of the sport. After those three, things get a little hairy.
JD Martinez was essential in giving this team balance last year. Ultimately making the All-Star team, he slugged 33 HRs and 103 RBIs. With him likely headed elsewhere in free agency, power-hitting outfielder Teoscar Hernandez was brought on to give the team a bit more balance as a right-handed option.
Will Smith is one of the better catchers in the game — yet he only hit .261 last year (and appeared to be worn down by the end of the season). Max Muncy can clearly slug, though his deficiencies in making contact is a real thing. He struck out 152 times in 579 plate appearances (finishing with a .212 batting average). Projected starting centerfielder James Outman struck out a team-high 181 times. Gavin Lux is returning from a torn ACL to play shortstop. It’s anyone’s guess as to whether he can hit for average post-injury. Lastly, the right field position appears to be a platoon situation between an aging Jason Heyward and light-hitting Manuel Margot.
While we may be nitpicking a bit, this lineup might not be as invincible as some are proclaiming it to be — particularly in terms of overall length.
3. Starting Pitching Depth
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Health and talent go hand-in-hand here. We spoke about how the Glasnow-Buehler-Paxton trio is somewhat injury-prone. Those three are expected to make up 60 percent of the ideal starting rotation.
LA doled out over $300 million to prized free-agent acquisition Yoshinobu Yamamoto. While there’s no injury history to worry about with him, he is used to pitching once a week (as is the norm in Japan). Over in the States, pitchers usually start with more frequency. Will the Dodgers compensate with a six-man rotation? This in theory would put even more pressure on a host of young arms to fill out the back end of the rotation.
Bobby Miller proved himself to be the real deal last year. He will easily slot into one of the remaining rotation spots. Veteran Ryan Yarbrough could be used in some capacity. From there, the Dodgers essentially have a host of young arms (Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, Nick Frasso, Landon Knack, Gavin Stone, River Ryan) who can provide the team with innings. The main issue with all of these pitchers? None of them are proven in any real way. If the Dodgers suffer an injury or two to its projected starting rotation, they’d be relying on a bunch of talented — albeit extremely inexperienced players.
4. The Lack of a True Closer
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After starting off last season a bit rough, the bullpen developed into one of the best in the league over the last half of the year. There’s no shortage of high-level arms in the pen — whether you’re talking about Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Joe Kelly, Blake Treinen, Alex Vesia, or Caleb Ferguson.
The only thing missing from this group is an everyday closer. Phillips did well to assume the role a season ago. He allowed only 38 hits in 61.1 IP. He notched 24 saves with a 2.05 ERA. In an ideal situation, Phillips would function more so as a high-leverage set-up man. Out of necessity, he was the de facto closer a year ago.
Even though the Dodgers lost out in the Josh Hader sweepstakes to the Houston Astros, the pursuit alone illustrated the team’s desire to upgrade the spot — which would in turn help solidify the rest of the pen. We’ll see if LA opts to address the area at some point this season.
5. Pressure
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We know the narrative surrounding this franchise.
This is a team that breezes through the regular season — only to underachieve in the postseason. With Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Ohtani now in tow, the expectations surrounding this ballclub have only been enhanced.
Opposing fans didn’t necessarily hate the Dodgers, per se. In the wake of landing these three big names — especially Ohtani — don’t expect LA to receive a warm welcome anywhere they play. If the team doesn’t win the World Series in 2024, many will conclude this season being an unmitigated disaster. The spotlight will be constantly shining on this team. Can it step up and get the job done? Only time will tell.
