Kentucky
Jeff Faughender/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORKHistory: 8x NCAA Champions, 4x Runner-Ups
Talk about a history of winning. It doesn’t matter what the regular season looks like when you have Calipari on your sideline in March. Still, it is worth noting the losses to Kansas and Tennessee, as well as the losses to much less notable teams (UNC Wilmington, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Florida, Gonzaga, LSU). The loss to Kansas was only by five points and Kentucky has strung up some big wins over North Carolina, Auburn, and Alabama. After last year’s one-win tournament and a few bad tournaments in a row, Antonio Reeves and the Wildcats are hoping to turn things around this March.
Duke
North Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY SportsHistory: 5x NCAA Champions
It’s been a very mediocre season by Duke standards (21-6, ranked No. 10) thus far. Duke’s only impressive win came against Baylor, but they have also suffered losses to Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, and most recently, Wake Forest. The court storming incident at Wake Forest injured center Kyle Filipowski (avg 16.9 pts, 8.2 reb, 2.8 ast) which likely will not help moving forward. Still, Duke has a history of winning, and in their second year without the legendary Coach K., it’d be foolish to count the Blue Devils out.
Tennessee
Hannah Mattix/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORKHistory: Elite Eight 2010
Tennessee has put together a nice season sitting at 21-6 and ranked number 4 in both the AP & Coaches’ Polls. Led by guard Dalton Knecht (avg 21.0 pts, 5.0 reb, 2.0 ast), Tennessee has impressive wins over Illinois and Kentucky. Their losses to North Carolina, Kansas, and Purdue were all within 10 points. Tennessee may be a sleeper pick to finally break that barrier to the Final Four. They finish the season with four games against ranked opponents, including a rematch against Kentucky. These games could be telling for the tournament to come.
Arizona
Zachary BonDurant-USA TODAY SportsHistory: 1997 Champion, 2001 Runner-Up
Led by guard Caleb Love (avg 19.4 pts, 5.0 reb, 3.3 ast), the Wildcats have had an up-and-down year. After starting the season 8-0, they lost three of their next five, including losses to Florida Atlantic (in 2OT) and Stanford (not good). The biggest knock against Arizona is going to be that they haven’t played anybody. They beat Duke in the second game of the season, but wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State (ranked at the time they played) have become less impressive as the season has gone on. They finish the season with a cakewalk of Pac-12 teams. Still, Arizona has a history of winning and success in the tournament. They only lost to Purdue by eight earlier this season and certainly boast the talent to make a deep run.
Iowa State
Katie Stratman-USA TODAY SportsHistory: Final Four 1944, Elite Eight 2000
2023 was disappointing for Iowa State with a first-round upset and exit at the hands of Pittsburgh. The Cyclones are looking to improve in this year’s tournament and so far seem slated to do so as the number 8 ranked team in the nation (#6 in the Coaches’ Poll). Guard Keshon Gilbert has led the way with 14.1 pts, 4.6 reb, and 4.1 ast per game, but the whole team seems to be contributing nicely. Four of their five starters are averaging double digit points per game, with the lowest being F Tre King (9.4 ppg). This balanced offensive attack has led the Cyclones to a 21-6 record with impressive wins against Houston and Kansas. Iowa State has struggled in the tournament as of late, but don’t be surprised if they are the ones pulling off the upset this year.
Creighton
Eric Canha-USA TODAY SportsHistory: Elite Eight 1941, 2023
Creighton missed their first-ever Final Four bid last year with a one-point loss to San Diego State. Baylor Scheierman returns to Creighton as this year’s leading scorer (avg 18.2 pts, 8.5 reb, 4.0 ast) and looks to make a deeper run in the tournament. Creighton has some bizarre losses this year, but an impressive win hosting number 1, UConn (85-66) on February 20th. When the Blue Jays get hot, they have a lot of guys who can contribute. In the UConn upset, Ashworth contributed 20 points and they also got 14 points from reserves Jasen Green and Francisco Farabello. Look for Creighton to make another deep run this year.
Alabama
Jordan Prather-USA TODAY SportsHistory: Elite Eight 2004
To say that last season was disappointing for the Crimson Tide would be an understatement. After getting the 1-seed, all hopes were high for the Alabama-loyal. Another team knocked off by the impressive San Diego State run, ‘Bama had to settle for another Sweet Sixteen exit. This year seems to be a mixed bag for Alabama with one win and one loss to 11th-ranked Auburn and a 3OT win over the 24th-ranked Florida Gators. The Crimson-Tide have also suffered losses to every other ranked team they played (Purdue, Creighton, Arizona, Tennessee, Kentucky). The only plus for Alabama is they have played a strong schedule and perhaps this team can build from the adversity faced this season.
South Carolina
Jeff Blake-USA TODAY SportsHistory: Final Four 2017
Looking to make their first appearance since 2017, the Gamecocks are making a comeback this March. Behind talented guard Meechie Johnson (avg 13.5 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.0 ast), South Carolina features an incredibly balanced attack. The Gamecocks have had some consistency issues with bad losses at Alabama and Auburn (74-47 and 101-61 respectively), but also pulled off big wins over Kentucky and at Tennessee. The Gamecocks have the best defense in the Southeastern Conference, but without a tournament appearance in five years, it’s tough to know exactly how far the Gamecocks will go.
San Diego State
Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY SportsHistory: NCAA Tournament Runner-Up 2023
It would be tough for the Aztecs to have a better year than they did last year. It was only their third time making it to the Sweet Sixteen in the program’s history, and their first time advancing past it. Still, there is something to be said about making it that far and coming up short. San Diego State returns two starting guards from last season’s run in Darrion Trammell and Lamont Butler, and now start F Jaedon Ledee and G Micah Parrish, who came off the bench last season. They also added Jacksonville State guard Jay Pal to the roster this year. While it seems the team has only grown and gotten better, it is hard to believe San Diego State will have as magnificent of a run as they did last tournament. As it happened, San Diego State only won their Elite Eight game against Creighton and their Final Four game against Florida Atlantic by one point. Look for San Diego State to continue their prior Sweet Sixteen exit streak.
BYU
Rob Gray-USA TODAY SportsHistory: Elite Eight 1950, 1951, 1981
That’s right, not even the college phenom Jimmer Fredette was able to get BYU to the Elite Eight. Still, this year’s team is scrappy. They just put up impressive wins over Baylor and at Kansas. BYU is currently unranked at 20-8 and 5th in the Big 12, but rest assured they will find their way back into the rankings and the tournament. Other notable wins include San Diego State and Iowa State. The game at Iowa State on March 6th will be their last test before conference tournaments start. This balanced roster led by G Jaxson Robinson (avg 14.1 pts, 2.5 reb, 1.4 ast) and every other starter averaging over 10 ppg is ready to make a run in the tournament.
Gonzaga
James Snook-USA TODAY SportsHistory: NCAA Tournament Runner-Up 2017, 2021
Mark Few, in his 25th season, has been to 13 Sweet Sixteens, 6 Elite Eights, and lost the championship twice. The Gonzaga Bulldogs know how to make runs in the tournament. Surely you haven’t tried to count them out yet. The bad news– Gonzaga has six losses on the year. The good news — four of those losses are to now-ranked opponents (Purdue, UConn, San Diego State, Saint Mary’s). The other bad news– Gonzaga only has one win against a ranked opponent (Kentucky). Gonzaga has had a pretty strong schedule this year, which has been a past criticism when they’ve had near undefeated years entering the tournament. Now, there is a chance to face adversity before the tournament and maybe be more set to handle some of these better teams in March. Gonzaga wraps up its regular season with a rematch against number 17, Saint Mary’s. This should be a good indication of how this team can adapt against better opponents.
Saint Mary’s
James Snook-USA TODAY SportsHistory: Elite Eight 1959
A couple of Sweet Sixteen appearances (one in 2010) and the Elite Eight appearance in 1959 are all that the Gaels have to offer. Still, they have made the tournament five times in the last 10 years, so they must be doing something right. Saint Mary’s is currently first in the West Coast Conference ahead of Gonzaga. They have wins over (then ranked 13) Colorado State and Gonzaga. They have a rematch against Gonzaga at home to end their regular season. This will be the final test before tournaments start and the Madness begins. Saint Mary’s gets a lot of contributions from the bench (near 25 ppg) and they will need all of that for a run in the tournament.
Baylor
Chris Jones-USA TODAY SportsHistory: NCAA Tournament Champions 2021
With six players averaging over 10 ppg, it is fair to say this Baylor team is balanced. At 3rd in the Big 12, the Baylor Bears have seen their fair share of ups and downs this season. With wins over Auburn, Florida, BYU, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma and losses to Duke, Kansas, BYU, and Houston (OT), Baylor has had a brutal schedule. This usually bodes well for a tournament run, and it certainly did in 2021. Baylor finishes their year with another shot at Kansas and games against Texas and Texas Tech.
Illinois
Matt Marton-USA TODAY SportsHistory: NCAA Tournament Runner-Up 2005
This Illinois team has a high ceiling this year. Led by guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (21.6 ppg) and forwards Marcus Domask (15.3 ppg) and Coleman Hawkins (13.0 ppg), this team can score. The Illini have seven losses, although three are to heavy hitters — Marquette, Tennessee and Purdue (all by seven points or fewer). Their only win against a ranked opponent is against Florida Atlantic (then ranked 11). The Illini have kept games close all season, and for a run in the tournament, that’s exactly what you need to do. Look for Illinois to surprise some people this year and make a nice little run in March.
Auburn
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY SportsHistory: Final Four 2019
Auburn is led by forwards Johni Broome (16.1 ppg) and Jaylin Williams (13.0 ppg), who return after helping Auburn advance past Iowa in last year’s tournament. They also added guard Chad Baker-Mazara, who transferred from San Diego State (last year at Northwest Florida State College). Auburn suffered a loss to Baylor to start the season, but then beat a ranked Ole Miss, Alabama (also dropped one to them), and South Carolina. Auburn lost to Kentucky on February 17th as well, and has a matchup against number 4 Tennessee before conference tournaments start. Auburn should be better than last year, and has all the makings of a team who can make a deep run.
North Carolina
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY SportsHistory: 6x NCAA Tournament Champions
After a three-point loss to Kansas in the 2022 March Madness Championship game, UNC failed to make the tournament last season. RJ Davis and Armando Bacot remain as the dynamic duo from the 2022 tournament run that is still on this UNC roster. Davis is averaging 21.7 ppg, 3.7 reb, and 3.4 ast, with Bacot contributing 14.1 ppg and 10.5 reb. The Tar Heels have wins over five ranked opponents (Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Clemson, and Duke) and losses to UConn and Kentucky. They will face Duke again before conference tournaments start. With this impressive record facing a strong schedule, UNC looks poised to make another deep tournament run.
Kansas
NATHAN J. FISH/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORKHistory: 4x NCAA Tournament Champions
Kansas has had a typical Kansas year with some big wins and tough losses. The Jayhawks have some impressive wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, UConn, Houston, and Baylor. Kansas has notable losses to Marquette, Iowa State, and BYU. Guard Kevin McCullar Jr. and center Hunter Dickinson are averaging 19.0 and 18.3 ppg respectively. They also have two players from their 2022 title-winning squad in guard Dajuan Harris Jr. and forward K.J. Adams Jr. The Jayhawks are stacked and ready for a resurgence after last year’s disappointing exit in the round of 32 following the one-point loss to Arkansas. The Jayhawks are serious contenders this year, and we would not be surprised to see them hang another banner in Allen Fieldhouse.
UConn
Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY SportsHistory: 4x NCAA Champions
Following last year’s championship run, the Huskies have put together a nice season so far. Led by guard Tristen Newton (avg: 15.2 pts, 7.3 reb, 5.9 ast), the Huskies find themselves in contention again. Sitting at 26-3 with losses only to Creighton, Seton Hall and Kansas, they have impressive wins over North Carolina, Gonzaga, and a commanding win over top contender Marquette (81-53). The last team to win back-to-back titles was Florida in 2006 and ’07, but the Huskies are looking like they may be poised to do the same.
Marquette
David Butler II-USA TODAY SportsHistory: NCAA Tournament Champions 1977
Marquette is another team with a balanced offensive attack. Their top three scorers this season include G Kam Jones (15.9 ppg), G Tyler Kolek (15.0 ppg), and F Oso Ighodaro (14.0 ppg). The Golden Eagles also see G Chase Ross, G Sean Jones, and F Ben Jones contributing 17 ppg off the bench collectively. Marquette has notable wins over Illinois, Kansas, Texas, and Creighton. Their notable losses include Purdue and UConn. The Golden Eagles will face UConn and Creighton again before conference tournaments start. A team that’s only allowing 68.6 ppg, they seem ready to make a deep run in this year’s tourney.
Purdue
Alex Martin/Journal and Courier / USA TODAY NETWORKHistory: NCAA Tournament Runner-Up 1969
Since Zach Edey joined Purdue’s squad in 2020, the hopes of a championship have been through the roof. Edey won the AP Player of the Year last season. It seems that Purdue has all the pieces. But last season was surely a devastating blow, losing to the 16-seed, Farleigh Dickinson University, in the first round. Edey’s 21 pts, 15 reb, and 3 blk were not enough. Purdue returns 4/5 starters from last season. Three of their starters are shooting over 40% from 3-point range. If there is ever a time for Purdue to reinvigorate the hopes of 1969, it’s this season.
Houston
Feb 27, 2024; Troy Taormina-USA TODAY SportsHistory: NCAA Tournament Runner-Up 1983, ’84
Houston is an unimpressive 177th in points scored this season at 73.9 per game. But they are also 1st in points per game allowed, keeping opponents to just 56.2. Houston has had strong defenses in the past, making it to the Final Four in 2021. That season they were 3rd in defense, allowing 58.8 ppg, before getting blown out by a strong Baylor offense in the Final Four 78-59. This is the only hesitation with Houston heading into the tournament– it tends to be high-powered offenses that can win in the tourney. Houston has not broken 90 points once this season. They will be relying heavily on their strong defense in the tournament. We’ll see if it’s enough to get past the Final Four this time.
