As the brackets for the 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament are unveiled, the search for crazy upsets immediately begins. Fans and bracket enthusiasts alike dive into discussions, dissecting matchups and weighing the odds in search of those thrilling underdog victories that define March Madness. Join us as we explore the potential contenders and dark horses that could beat their first-round opponents, despite being underdogs.
No. 11 New Mexico Lobos over No. 6 Clemson Tigers
The Lobos are a dangerous team. In the competitive Mountain West, New Mexico won the conference tournament on the back of excellent guard play. Jaelen House (son of ex-NBA player Eddie), Jamal Mashburn Jr. (son of ex-NBA player Jamal Sr.), and Donovan Dent make up arguably the best trio of guards in the country. When factoring in springy freshman forward JT Toppin and rugged big man Nelly Junior Joseph, this is a very complete team. Clemson is ripe for an upset here. The magic of the Pitino family in tournament play will live on.
No. 11 North Carolina State over No. 6 Texas Tech
This should make for one of the more compelling matchups of the Round of 64. North Carolina State, after securing its first ACC title since 1987 through a remarkable five-game winning streak in the ACC tournament, is set to face Texas Tech. Texas Tech, heavily dependent on three-point shooting, shows vulnerabilities in crucial areas like turnovers, rebounds, and free throws. Historically, similar teams have faced early exits in the tournament, so we think NC STate’s Cinderella run will continue for at least one more game.
No. 11 Oregon Ducks over No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks
With N’Faly Dante fully recovered and finding his form again, the Pac-12 champions are in a great position for a typical March run. The Ducks caught fire during their conference tournament, while South Carolina stumbled with an early exit after a disappointing loss. Considering their hot momentum, we can see the Ducks being a smart pick for an upset here.
No. 12 McNeese State over No. 5 Gonzaga
Gonzaga’s unexpected seeding as a No. 5 surprised many, including suggestions that they should have been a No. 7 seed. However, McNeese State poses a significant threat — making its first NCAA tournament appearance in 22 years and led by former LSU coach Will Wade. The Cowboys are known for their strong defense, causing turnovers on nearly a quarter of defensive possessions. This type of strategy typically bodes well for upsets. Although Gonzaga has made the Sweet Sixteen eight straight years, we think McNeese State will put an ends to that streak.
No. 12 Grand Canyon Lopes over No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels
For those eyeing a first-round upset, the matchup between No. 12 seed Grand Canyon and No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s presents an intriguing option. Despite Saint Mary’s strong season and defensive efficiency, they face challenges with key player Joshua Jefferson out, giving Grand Canyon’s Tyon Grant-Foster and Ray Harrison a notable advantage. Grand Canyon’s ability to draw fouls and excel at free throws, combined with their strategy of pushing the pace before Saint Mary’s defense sets, could be pivotal. With Grand Canyon’s skill players poised to make impactful plays, they stand a good chance to secure an upset in this matchup.
No. 13 Samford Bulldogs over No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks
Samford, led by Bucky McMillan, faces Kansas in the NCAA Tournament’s Round of 64 — a 4 vs. 13 seed battle in the Midwest Region. Samford’s offense, known for its “Bucky Ball” system, boasts impressive shooting stats, making them one of the top teams in field goal and three-point shooting percentages. While the health of Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. remain a mystery for Kansas, it’s not hard to picture Samford pulling off the upset.
No. 12 UAB Blazers over No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs
UAB’s transition to the AAC showcased their strength, culminating in their NCAA Tournament qualification with three strong wins. Despite the departure of coach Andy Kennedy, the team showed their dominance on the offensive glass and ability to draw fouls. They will be facing a SDSU team coming off last year’s national championship runner-up finish. The pressure of following up last year’s performance has us thinking UAB is ripe for the upset.
No. 11 Duquesne Dukes over No. 6 BYU Cougars
Despite BYU’s strong season, Duquesne’s exceptional defensive capabilities, ranked 28th nationally, could pose a significant threat to BYU’s offense. The Dukes are coming into the game with momentum, riding an eight-game winning streak that culminated in an A-10 tournament victory, marking their first NCAA tournament appearance in 47 years. Their recent performance and defensive strength make Duquesne a potential upset pick against a BYU team that is particularly weak on defense.
No. 12 James Madison Dukes over No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers
While Wisconsin boasts experienced players and an efficient offense, they have often struggled to contain elite offenses. That is exactly what they will be facing against an up-tempo James Madison squad. JMU enters the NCAA tournament with 31 wins on the year and was the 10th highest-scoring team in the nation during the season. The Dukes play fast and get good looks on every possession. If they get hot from three, the Badgers could be headed home early.
No. 14 Akron Zips over No. 3 Creighton Bluejays
The Zips prefer a slower pace, aiming to keep scores in the 60s, a tactic that served them well in their MAC Tournament victories. This defensive approach could present a challenge considering Creighton’s offense, which hit the 75-point mark in 11 of their final 14 games. For Akron to secure their inaugural NCAA Tournament victory, they’ll need to maintain consistent scoring and thwart any major scoring surges from the Bluejays.
No 10. Drake over No. 7 Washington State
Drake is riding a wave of momentum with five consecutive victories, including a win for the MVC Tournament title against Indiana State. Washington State, on the other hand, has been inconsistent, with a 3-3 record in their last six and a recent defeat to Colorado in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals. While both teams emphasize defense, Drake sets itself apart with a powerful offense, averaging 80.5 points per game, placing them 35th nationally. This offensive talent, coupled with their solid defense, positions Drake perfectly for the upset.