West Region: No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 1 North Carolina
Most people were picking against Tom Izzo and the Spartans in this game. Michigan State was woefully inconsistent all year long, and doubts have been creeping up as to whether the game may have passed Izzo by. Well, whether motivated by the haters or not, Michigan State played some very inspired basketball. They took Mississippi State out of what it wanted to do offensively, winning the game by 18 in a contest that wasn’t even that close.
Slowing down North Carolina is a whole other beast completely. Michigan State has some familiarity with the Tar Heels, and as such will not be fearing them. You can expect the Spartans to show a hard double on Armando Bacot whenever he touches the ball. From there, it’ll be up to Carolina’s shooters to make MSU pay from deep. Keeping RJ Davis in check will also be massive. In the end, North Carolina has too much talent and will win what should be a competitive contest.
Prediction: North Carolina
West Region: No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 2 Arizona
Arizona weirdly struggled with Long Beach State in the first half before eventually blowing The Beach out by 20 to end the game. Dayton appeared dead in the water before embarking on a massive come-from-behind victory to clip Nevada right at the end. Coming off an emotional win like that, we wonder if the Flyers will be able to conjure up the same sort of energy. Arizona was able to rest some starters.
Dayton’s best player — Arizona native DaRon Holmes — will probably be quite motivated to perform well in this contest. He’ll be guarded by gritty veteran Keshad Johnson. Johnson was a member of the SDSU team that made the historic Final Four run last year. He’s a physical player with a terrific wingspan. Look for him to make life difficult for Holmes. Arizona, in general, has too much firepower and should win comfortably.
Prediction: Arizona
Midwest Region: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Tennessee
Naturally, the committee set it up so Rick Barnes would coach against his former team. Texas smothered Colorado State in the first round — holding the Rams to only 11 points in the first half. Texas boasts a solid eight-man rotation led by NCAA Tournament vet Max Abmas and rugged post Dylan Disu. Tennessee has Dalton Knecht — one of the country’s most dynamic wings.
There’s a real chance explosive athlete Dillon Mitchell will be matched up with him on the defensive end. Both teams essentially play the ‘four out/one in’ scheme, and the Longhorns will hope that their combination of length and athletic ability can disrupt the talented scorer. Texas shot only 1-of-14 from three in the win over Colorado State. On the year, Tennessee is allowing opponents to shoot only 31 percent from behind the arc. Texas has to hit some threes to soften the Vols’ solid defense. If they don’t, Tennessee will pack the paint, hindering Mitchell and Disu’s effectiveness.
SEC Defensive Player of the Year Zakai Zeigler will take the challenge in defending Abmas. All-SEC First Team defender Jonas Aidoo also can defend Disu straight up if need be. We expect Knecht to put pressure on Texas by trying to manufacture points at the free-throw line. Defensively, Tennessee matches up well with Texas. While Barnes has had some issues getting to the Sweet 16 historically, the Vols will break through there.
Prediction: Tennessee
Midwest Region: No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Kansas
This game truly is a toss-up. Both teams like to play up-and-down, where tempo and spacing are highly emphasized. Neither team is overly physical — though the matchup between Anton Watson and KJ Adams will go a long way in determining the outcome of this game. Adams has to keep Watson in check, especially on the boards. Graham Ike is a sturdy, stout lefty in the post. With that said Hunter Dickinson will have a huge height advantage against anyone Gonzaga throws at him.
Look for Mark Few to try and get Dickinson in high screen-and-roll situations early. If Kansas can get good efforts from Johnny Furphy and Nick Timberlake once again, the Jayhawks will be tough to beat. Additionally, KU has to like the matchup with Dajuan Harris Jr. and his ball-pressure ability going up against slithery Zags guard Ryan Nembhard. Gonzaga has more depth, but Kansas matches up well with Gonzaga’s best players.
Prediction: Kansas
Midwest Region: No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Creighton
The tournament committee knew what they were doing when putting together this possibility. Oregon head coach Dana Altman will go head-to-head with the program he once coached for more than 15 years. The fan base out of Omaha generally has a favorable opinion of him — though the Blue Jays faithful will be quite raucous in this ballgame. Creighton disposed of Akron rather easily after a competitive first half. After winning the Pac-12 Tournament, Oregon continued with its momentum by handily defeating South Carolina.
The Ducks essentially controlled the game from start to finish on the back of former Gamecocks guard Jermaine Couisnard (who went to 40 points on 14-of-22 from the field). Oregon’s ability to defend the three-ball will be huge in this game. The matchup between Creighton big Ryan Kalkbrenner and Oregon center N’Faly Dante will also be massive. It would behoove the Blue Jays to get Dante in foul trouble. On the other hand, Dante is a load in the post — and can move his feet well enough to check Kalkbrenner on the perimeter. Creighton’s pace normally would be an advantage against most teams.
However, Oregon also loves to run. They’re a more athletic team across the board, and also a deeper one. Keep an eye on freshman guard Jackson Shelstad. He’s a Payton Pritchard clone in the making.
Prediction: Oregon
East Region: No. 11 Duquense vs. No. 3 Illinois
The Dukes pulled off one of the earliest upsets of the tournament. For the vast majority of the game, Duquesne controlled the tempo versus the higher-rated BYU Cougars. While BYU made a push at the end, Duquesne held on for the hard-fought victory. Senior guard Dae Dae Grant scored 19 and was aided by freshman big man Jakub Necas (who scored 12 points off the bench).
Illinois pulled away from Morehead State after a nervy first ten minutes. As we saw in the Big Ten Tournament, the Fighting Illini are an unconventional matchup for most teams. They’ve got two really good scorers to go along with size and several interchangeable parts. Grant will have to have a monster effort if the Dukes are to pull the upset. With the veteran leadership of Terrence Shannon Jr. and Coleman Hawkins, coupled with the all-around play of Marcus Domask — Illinois should win.
Prediction: Illinois
East Region: No. 7 Washington State vs. No. 2 Iowa State
This should be one of the better games on Saturday. Both of these teams flew relatively under the radar for much of the year. Iowa State has some really good guard play in Keshon Gilbert and Tamin Lipsey. Washington State also boasts all-conference guard Myles Rice. The Cyclones have the advantage there — though Washington State has the upper hand at forward with double-double machine Isaac Jones and Jaylen Wells. Washington State must not only prevent Iowa State from launching threes at a high rate, but the Cougs also have to get Jones going early and often.
We’d be a bit worried for ISU if freshman Milan Momcilovic is matched up against Jones. More likely than not, Iowa State will start Tre King on him. This game truly can go either way. Washington State starts four guys at least 6’8″, and Wells is a future NBA player. Since it’s being played in Omaha, the Cyclones will enjoy a nice homecourt advantage here.
Prediction: Iowa State
South Region: No. 11 NC State vs. No. 14 Oakland
Oakland stunned Kentucky courtesy of guard Jack Gohlke. The reserve guard — who had been playing at a D2 school before this year — connected on 10 (!) of 20 attempts from three-point range. It was a stunning performance and one where the veteran leadership of Gohlke, post player Trey Townsend, and former Michigan State guard Rocket Watts won out over John Calipari’s young roster. The Golden Grizzlies are a fantastic story…though this is where their story will end.
NC State won five games in five days to become ACC Tournament Champions. Though the team is banged up, the Wolfpack thoroughly dismantled Texas Tech in the 6 vs. 11 matchup. DJ Burns is a nightmare matchup for Oakland, and former ASU guard DJ Horne can light it up in a hurry. Historically speaking, there have been six times when an 11-seed squared off with a 14-seed. The 11-seed is 6-0 in these games.
Prediction: North Carolina State