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The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament has come and gone. While we witnessed a few upsets over the first two rounds, the Sweet 16 has a very chalky feel to it. All four No. 1 seeds and all four No. 2 seeds are still alive. Those teams are joined by a pair of No. 3’s, two No. 4’s, two No. 5’s, one 6-seed and one 11-seed. Here’s how the rest of the tournament will play out.
Duke vs Houston– Sweet Sixteen
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Well, Duke just slaughtered James Madison University, while Houston had a narrow overtime escape against Texas A&M. This is the problem with strong defensive teams. Houston has been the number one defense all season (and really the last few seasons) but is 157th in points per game. As soon as Houston faces a team that gets hot offensively, they cannot answer. Duke is 42nd in points per game and 32nd in defense. Houston is going to have a very big problem if a guy like Jared McCain gets hot for Duke again in this game.
Winner: Duke
NC State vs Marquette– Sweet Sixteen
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Here’s another big fella for you, Marquette. Marquette just squeaked through a very similar Colorado team. You could say Eddie Lampkin Jr. (6’11, 265) is the same player as NC State’s DJ Burns Jr. (6’9, 275). Lampkin and the Buffs had every opportunity to seal the deal against Marquette, but couldn’t get it done. Marquette outshot the Buffs 61.8% to 47% inside the arc and 42.9% to 33.3% from three, yet Colorado still only lost by four. While you may be thinking NC State also escaped in overtime against 14-seed Oakland, the Wolfpack dominated in overtime and Burns had a much stronger performance than Lampkin. Considering Marquette couldn’t handle Lampkin and the Buffs, Burns and the Wolfpack will prove to be too much.
Winner: NC State
Purdue vs Gonzaga– Sweet Sixteen
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Purdue and Gonzaga handled business in the Round of 32. Purdue stomped Utah State 106-67 and Gonzaga torched Kansas 89-68. The Sweet Sixteen is bound to be a firefight between Gonzaga and Purdue. With two weaker defenses (Gonzaga 85th and Purdue 99th) and two high powered offenses (Gonzaga 7th and Purdue 11th), this game is going to be all about who can shoot it better. In the previous round, Gonzaga shot 60.3% from the field and 53.3% from three, while Purdue shot 55.9% from the field and 47.8% from three against a much weaker defense. While Edey is going to be a problem for any team, Gonzaga gives significant playing time to four different talented forwards (Gregg, Ike, Watson, and Huff), all of whom are 6’8″ or taller.
Winner: Gonzaga
Creighton vs Tennessee– Sweet Sixteen
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What a matchup this is going to be. Baylor Scheierman against Dalton Kenecht is going to be electric. Two of the top scorers in the country going head to head in the Sweet Sixteen is exactly what everyone waits for in March. While this matchup is certainly going to be the focus of the media and many fans, this game will likely come down to the support Kenecht and Scheierman receive from their teammates. Scheierman was one of four Creighton players to score 18+ points last game, while no one other than Kenecht (18) had more than 11. Kalkbrenner has been fantastic for Creighton this tournament and the team seems to really be clicking as a whole. Tennessee seems to be much more reliant on their star guard. While Tennessee has a chance if Kenecht has a massive game, this one is going to the Bluejays.
Winner: Creighton
UConn vs San Diego State– Sweet Sixteen
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Last year’s championship rematch. San Diego State steamrolled Yale and shot an incredible 48.1% from three. UConn steamrolled Northwestern and shot a putrid 13.8% from three. This is a lot more concerning than exciting for San Diego State. UConn normally shoots 36.1% from three-point range. UConn steamrolled Northwestern playing down low and utilizing their 7’2″ big man Donovan Clingan. The tallest guys on SDSU’s roster are only 6’10”. UConn can shoot the lights out of the building and SDSU will have no answer for the big men inside. We saw these teams meet in last year’s championship game and UConn wiped the floor with the Aztecs. This game will look very similar.
Winner: UConn
Illinois vs Iowa State– Sweet Sixteen
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Illinois and Iowa State have both been playing at a high level this tournament. Illinois seamlessly took care of business against a hot Duquesne team, winning by 26 points. There was no answer for guard Terrance Shannon Jr., who dropped a cool 30 points in the game. Still, Illinois has struggled against ranked opponents this year, with their only win coming against Florida Atlantic. This game will come down to defense and Iowa State is ranked fourth in opponents points per game. The Cyclones will slow down the explosive Terrance Shannon Jr. and advance to the Elite Eight.
Winner: Iowa State
North Carolina vs Alabama– Sweet Sixteen
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The SEC has not looked all that dominant so far in the tournament. ‘Bama is certainly a high-powered offense (number 1 in ppg this year), but they gave up 96 points to a Charleston team only averaging 80 per game. They fared better against Grand Canyon only allowing 61 points, but their own offense scored just 72. They are going to have trouble against a Tar Heels team allowing just 60 ppg and scoring 81.8. Alabama is 356th in opponent points allowed at 80.9. Alabama has lost every game against a ranked opponent outside their division this season. UNC is going to be too much for the Crimson Tide. North Carolina wins big.
Winner: North Carolina
Clemson vs Arizona– Sweet Sixteen
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Just like people are starting to realize how good the ACC is, they are also starting to realize how good the PAC-12 is. Although Washington State and Oregon fell in close games, the top dog Arizona has looked great every step of the way. Likewise, Clemson has outperformed expectations, stunning the high powered Baylor offense. Both of these teams share the ball well and get good contributions from their bench. This game is going to come down to athleticism, and as the third ranked offense in the country, Arizona is going to be too much this time for Clemson. Arizona shot 44.4% from three last game, and between this and Oumar Ballo, the big 7’0 center, Clemson will not have an answer.
Winner: Arizona
Duke vs NC State– Elite Eight
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Well, it was a good run for the Wolfpack up to this point. Duke and NC State have met twice this year, once in the regular season and another time during NC State’s fantastic run in the ACC tournament. In the regular season, Duke had ample contributions from their bench (17 points) and NC State’s DJ Horne had 8 points. In the ACC tournament, Duke had 0 points from their bench and DJ Horne dropped 18 off the bench for the Wolfpack. NC State will need everything they can get from Horne, who had 16 points in their decisive win against Texas Tech, but only 11 in their overtime survival against Oakland. Duke has been on cruise control and seems to have figured out the flow with their offense. Sure Jared McCain went unconscious and hit eight threes on the way to dropping 30 points against James Madison, but they also got a nice 14 points from the bench in their decisive victory. Duke matches up well against NC State and will hold DJ Horne to less points this time to secure the victory.
Winner: Duke
Gonzaga vs Creighton– Elite Eight
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Nine straight Sweet Sixteens for Mark Few, 5 (6 with a win over Purdue) Elite Eights in that time, but only 2 Final Fours. The Bulldogs of Gonzaga outperformed everyone’s expectations, but their run will be cut short here against Creighton in the Elite Eight. Thus far, Gonzaga has enjoyed playing an overrated McNeese team and a battered and tired Kansas. This is not to take away from Gonzaga, who will also beat a fully healthy Purdue, but they do face a new challenge with Creighton. Kalkbrenner is only getting better each game (23 pts, 8 reb against Akron; 19 pts, 14 reb against Oregon). Baylor Scheierman is starting to look like his regular season self and is also getting better deeper into the tournament. Oregon and Tennessee will have prepped Creighton to take care of business against Few and the Bulldogs.
Winner: Creighton
UConn vs Iowa State– Elite Eight
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Iowa State and UConn can both shoot the lights out of the building. And we already know Iowa State is a strong defensive team, but they are going to have their hands full inside against the big man Donovan Clingan. The 7’2″ center hauled in 14 rebounds against Northwestern, and Iowa State is going to want no part of that. We already saw that UConn has as lethal an inside game as out based on their poor three-point shooting against Northwestern. Good defenses only get so far in the tournament, as shown by Houston the past couple years. UConn is 21st in points per game this year while Iowa State ranks 114th. The fourth best defense in the country is not enough to overcome that gap.
Winner: UConn
North Carolina vs Arizona– Elite Eight
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Finally, a chance for Caleb Love to show his old team what they’re missing. Even though Love has not shot the ball all that well this tournament, he’s due for a big game, and playing his old squad will provide the exact motivation he needs. While Love and RJ Davis go at it, Armando Bacot will have his hands full with Oumar Ballo. The x-factor in this game will actually be Arizona’s other transfer, Keshad Johnson, who came over from San Diego State. Johnson was SDSU’s leading scorer in last year’s championship game with 14 points. Look for Love to go off this game with support from Johnson and Ballo inside. Arizona takes this one narrowly.
Winner: Arizona
Duke vs Creighton– Final Four
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Well, Duke has had a very Duke run thus far. You can never count out the Blue Devils. This is Scheyer’s furthest run as a head coach so far, and his inexperience will show. McDermott and the Bluejays will come out strong defensively and continue their offensive siege in this tournament. Jared McCain will have his hands full with Scheierman, and Fillipowski will be overmatched against Kalkbrenner. After Duke will have beat four poor offensive teams to reach the Final Four, Creighton’s explosive offense will be too much for the Blue Devils. Creighton heads to the championship game.
Winner: Creighton
UConn vs Arizona– Final Four
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UConnn is going to be too much for Arizona to handle at this point. After the rush of upsetting UNC to get out of the West, UConn is going to be too big, too physical, and too good from three. They outmatch Arizona at every position. Caleb Love is too hot and cold and the big Ballo will have his hands full with Clingan. UConn may be 21st offensively to Arizona’s 3rd, but they are also 12th defensively to Arizona’s 182nd (and that’s playing in an easier division). Uconn dominates this game to head to the championship.
Winner: UConn
UConn vs Creighton– National Championship Game
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The rematch everyone is waiting for. UConn beat up on the Bluejays in their first matchup in January (62-48) and then Creighton dominated the Huskies in their second showdown in February (85-66). The Bluejays only shot 23.1% from three in the first matchup and skyrocketed to 50.0% from three on 28 attempts in the second. They will need all of that and more to pull the upset. The Big East is an elite conference and it will show in this championship game. Kalkbrenner seems to get the better of Clingan in these matchups, but the Bluejays have had no answer for Tristen Newton (16 points and 27 in their two games this year). This game will give us everything March promises, but UConn will be the first to repeat since the ’06-’07 Florida Gators.
Winner: UConn
