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There’s plenty of intrigue and excitement in the West Region of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Arizona prays it can get to the Sweet 16 — where the Wildcats would get a massive boost playing in Los Angeles amidst a sea of red. The storylines for potential matchups (North Carolina/Michigan State, Alabama/St. Mary’s, Baylor/New Mexico) are also fun to think about. Without further adieu, here are our predictions for the entire West Region.
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Howard/Wagner
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North Carolina ran through the ACC on the backs of seniors RJ Davis and Armando Bacot. The inside-outside threat is a handful for virtually any team it can face in this region. The Tar Heels should make quick work of Howard or Wagner. We can’t envision an upset in this contest considering the veteran leadership and talent UNC brings to the table.
Winner: North Carolina
(8) Mississippi St. vs. (9) Michigan St.
Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
The Bulldogs knocked off LSU and Tennessee in the SEC Tournament before bowing out to Auburn. Michigan State beat Minnesota before being upended by Purdue in what was a very close game. Neither team is playing exceptionally well heading into this contest. Michigan State has lost five-of-seven — whereas Mississippi State has also dropped five of its last seven games. Ultimately, we give the slightest of edges to Tom Izzo and the pedigree of the Michigan State program. This game should go down to the wire.
Winner: Michigan State
(5) Saint Mary’s vs. (12) Grand Canyon
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Here is your classic 12-5 upset. It happens every year, and this is the year when Randy Bennett’s Gaels will be the hunted squad in this scenario. Saint Mary’s has been fantastic all year long. Aidan Mahaney and Augustas Maruciulionis lead an offensive attack featuring five players averaging at least 10.0 PPG a game. Grand Canyon can score, too — evidenced by averaging nearly 80 points a game. The Lopes present some real matchup issues for the Gales. Grand Canyon is arguably more athletic across the board, and guard Tyon Grant-Foster can really fill it up.
Winner: Grand Canyon
(4) Alabama vs. (13) Charleston
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This is a scary matchup for the Crimson Tide. Charleston averages nearly 81 points per contest and has five players averaging close to double-figures. Taking care of the ball will be key here for the Crimson Tide. Nate Oats’ team likes to play with tempo as well, which should result truthfully in a very exciting game. Alabama does have a size and athleticism advantage. Grant Nelson will be a big X-factor for Alabama, as will Mark Sears (averaging 21 PPG on the year).
Winner: Alabama
(6) Clemson vs. (11) New Mexico
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The Lobos are a dangerous team. In the competitive Mountain West, New Mexico won the conference tournament on the back of excellent guard play. Jaelen House (son of ex-NBA player Eddie), Jamal Mashburn Jr. (son of ex-NBA player Jamal Sr.), and Donovan Dent make up arguably the best trio of guards in the country. When factoring in springy freshman forward JT Toppin and rugged big man Nelly Junior Joseph, this is a very complete team. Clemson is ripe for an upset here. The magic of the Pitino family in tournament play will live on.
Winner: New Mexico
(3) Baylor vs. (14) Colgate
Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
There is a bit of worry hovering around Baylor’s program at the minute. Rumors are swirling that Louisville could be launching a massive bid to land head coach Scott Drew. With that said, the Bears should have a major advantage at the guard spots. Talented freshman Ja’Kobe Walter leads the team in scoring. Six Baylor players average double-figures, and the team collectively shoots nearly 39 percent from three. Expect Baylor to avoid the upset and win semi-comfortably.
Winner: Baylor
(7) Dayton vs. (10) Nevada
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Steve Alford’s team competed admirably in the rugged Mountain West. The Wolfpack notched wins over Washington, Temple, TCU, Georgia Tech, Colorado State, Utah State, SDSU, and Boise State en route to 26 wins. Senior guard Jarod Lucas is the straw that stirs the proverbial drink. On the other side, Dayton will boast the game’s most talented player in DaRon Holmes. The 20-PPG scorer also averages 2.1 blocks on the season. Nevada doesn’t have a great matchup for him, and if Holmes is cooking, it could open up the Flyers to bomb threes (the team shoots collectively 40.2 percent from beyond the arc).
Winner: Dayton
(2) Arizona vs. (15) Long Beach St.
Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Don’t sleep on The Beach. After firing the team’s head coach Dan Monson before the conference tournament, Long Beach State miraculously won the Big West tournament with Monson still on the sidelines. Now, he’ll get to square off against a guy he brought into coaching years ago in Tommy Lloyd. The Wildcats can’t possibly lose to another 15-seed…can they? Even though LBSU’s players will have plenty of familiarity with the Arizona roster, the Wildcats are poised to be the best team Lloyd’s had since coming to Tucson.
Winner: Arizona
(1) North Carolina vs. (9) Michigan St.
Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
Michigan State’s offense tends to get a bit bogged down — especially if leading scorer Tyson Walker isn’t hitting his shots. In this contest, the Walker-Davis matchup will be significant. Mady Sissoko will also have to keep Bacot off the boards if the Spartans have any shot at winning this game. The Harrison Ingram-Malik Hall battle also figures to be interesting. Ultimately, UNC will have too much firepower for the Spartans to stop. Michigan State might be the deeper team — though North Carolina has more talent.
Winner: North Carolina
(4) Alabama vs. (12) Grand Canyon
Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports
Grand Canyon will surely be a trendy pick to win this game. Between the way GC plays, coupled with the thirst to see lower seeds lose, Alabama will certainly face some blowback on social media. For all of these reasons, this is why I think the Crimson Tide will win. Alabama will not take this opponent lightly, and Nelson should be able to have his way with any of Grand Canyon’s bigs.
Winner: Alabama
(3) Baylor vs. (11) New Mexico
Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
This should be a VERY fun matchup. It’ll be a guards galore in this contest. Expect big shot after big shot, especially when this tournament is often geared toward the guard position. This game will be reminiscent of a classic boxing match — where two foes exchange blows constantly with each struggling to stand on their own two feet. In the end, Baylor will eke out a close win based on having more NBA talent. It still wouldn’t be shocking if New Mexico did pull the upset.
Winner: Baylor
(2) Arizona vs. (7) Dayton
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
This is the best defensive team Lloyd has had in Tucson. Landing Keshad Johnson from SDSU in the portal this past offseason completely changed the trajectory of this team. He does all of the little things — and is by far the team’s most physical player. His gigantic wingspan, coupled with experience and toughness, will bother Holmes. Arizona should be able to get out and run with the likes of Caleb Love and the country’s most underappreciated player, Pelle Larsson. Assuming Arizona can keep Dayton buttoned up from three, the talent should take over here.
Winner: Arizona
(1) North Carolina vs. (4) Alabama
Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports
The pressure is going to get to Carolina here. Most people expect them to be competing for a National Championship given the fact Bacot and Davis are still in school. It’s asking a lot of them to carry this team — not to mention the list of role players who don’t have a ton of experience on the biggest stage. While Alabama will go into this game as a likely underdog, Oats will have a few days to gameplan for the Tar Heels. Sears will probably take the matchup with Davis personally — wanting to prove that he is the best guard in the game.
Winner: Alabama
(2) Arizona vs. (3) Baylor
Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Arizona must try and speed Baylor up on the offensive end of the floor. There could be turnovers to be had in the form of Bears guard RayJ Dennis. The fifth-year senior is averaging nearly four turnovers per contest. While Yves Missi is a rim-protecting threat, there’s not a ton of depth behind him. Look for the Wildcats to get Oumar Ballo engaged early and often. If Missi gets in foul trouble, that could open up driving lanes for Love and the fleet of Arizona guards.
Winner: Arizona
(2) Arizona vs. (4) Alabama
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Arizona is finally going to get over the hump. A Final Four appearance will be in the cards here for the Wildcats. With this game being played in Los Angeles, it will be a HEAVY Arizona crowd. Fans from Tucson travel exceptionally well, and there are a ton of Arizona alums living in the greater Los Angeles area. Between Love and Johnson’s experience, Larsson’s savvy, Ballo’s presence in the post, and the dynamic ability of bench players Jaden Bradley and KJ Lewis, this is a very complete team. Throw in a couple of threes from Kylan Boswell and some dunks from 7’2″ Motiejus Krivas, and this group will be tough to stop.
Winner: Arizona
