Houston enters the South Region as the #1 seed, but there are more than a handful of teams within this region who can cut down the nets. From Houston to Duke to Kentucky to Marquette, we break down all 15 games to determine who will be advancing to the Final Four.
(1) Houston vs. (16) Longwood
The No. 1 seed in the South Region draws Longwood, the winners of the Big South tournament. The Lancers started the season 12-1 but lost 12 of their last 18 games before the postseason. They knocked off the top team in the conference, High Point, twice in March, including an overtime win in the semifinal. Houston is loosely comparable to the Virginia team that lost to UMBC in 2018. Both are defensive-minded squads who could be susceptible to three-point variance. However, this Longwood team is not a threat from the outside. The Cougars make quick work of the Lancers en route to their 31st win of the year.
Prediction: Houston wins 74-52
(8) Nebraska vs. (9) Texas A&M
This one features at-large squads from the Big 10 and SEC facing off in what should be an even matchup. Nebraska is 7-2 over their last nine games and beat Purdue earlier this year. A&M hit a rough patch in SEC play, but picked it up to end the year. They had won five in a row before running into a Gator buzzsaw in the SEC tournament. In a game that should feature plenty of scoring, the Cornhuskers possess the more balanced attack. They had four players average over 11 PPG, including senior guard Keisei Tominaga, who finished fifth in the Big Ten in three-pointers made per game this season (2.3 makes on 37.2-percent).
Prediction: Nebraska wins 77-73
(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) James Madison
This will probably be the highest-scoring game in the entire South region. JMU enters the NCAA tournament with 31 wins on the year and was the 10th highest-scoring team in the nation during the season. The Dukes play fast and get good looks on every possession. They’ll be facing off against the most potent Wisconsin offense in 30 years. Greg Gard’s team is averaging 75.1 PPG — their highest total since 1994. James Madison has made just one NCAA tournament appearance during that span. Wisconsin carries its momentum from the Big Ten tournament to overwhelm the Dukes.
Prediction: Wisconsin wins 83-77
(4) Duke vs. (13) Vermont
While the Blue Devils struggled down the stretch, this is still a team that could make a deep run in March. Jon Scheyer’s team is filled with talent waiting to break out on the big stage. They’ll have their hands full in their first matchup, though. The Catamounts of Vermont are familiar with the bracket setting. This will be their fifth NCAA tournament appearance since 2017, though they haven’t advanced past the Round of 64 since upsetting Syracuse in 2005. The Blue Devils are a bit more of an experienced bunch than we’ve seen in the past. Senior guard Jeremy Roach was on the Final Four team from two seasons ago. Vermont will try to slow it down, but the Blue Devils are too good offensively to drop this one.
Prediction: Duke wins 80-68
(6) Texas Tech vs. (11) NC State
This should make for one of the more compelling matchups of the Round of 64. NC State just polished off an incredible run through the ACC tournament. It caught fans off guard considering the way the Wolfpack limped through the end of the regular season. They picked up losses in 10 of 14 games before ripping off five consecutive wins to secure an automatic bid — with wins over three teams in the NCAA tournament field (North Carolina, Virginia and Duke). Texas Tech has been battling injuries all year long, but still managed to go 11-7 in arguably the best conference in the country (Big 12). We’re siding with the superior conference in this one. The Red Raiders have dominant wins this year over BYU (twice), Texas, Baylor, and Kansas. They’re the stronger team.
Prediction: Texas Tech wins 67-64
(3) Kentucky vs. (14) Oakland
John Calipari has a team capable of making a run to the Final Four. They have excellent guard play, depth, and high-end talent fit to take over games. But, let’s not forget this is a program that hasn’t advanced past opening weekend since 2019. That stretch includes losing as a 2-seed to Saint Peter’s. The Horizon champion Oakland Golden Grizzlies are hoping for a Cinderella run of their own. They’re 17-3 over their last 20 games and have one of the best shooters in all of college basketball in Jack Gohlke (121 made threes on the year, second most in the nation). If the two teams try and trade buckets, it’s difficult to imagine Oakland keeping up with Kentucky’s No. 2 ranked offense.
Prediction: Kentucky wins 79-70
(7) Florida vs. (10) Boise St./Colorado
Some were a bit surprised to see Colorado not gain admittance to the initial field. The Buffaloes do not have the look of a team that should be battling for its tournament life in a First Four matchup. While Boise State finished second in a competitive Mountain West, they drew a tough matchup here. The Buffaloes had won eight in a row before losing in the Pac-12 title game against Oregon. Colorado’s top three of KJ Simpson (19.6 PPG), Tristan da Silva (15.8 PPG), and Cody Williams (12.6 PPG) will lead the Buffaloes past the Broncos and will engineer an upset victory over Florida two days later.
Prediction: Colorado wins 73-70
(2) Marquette vs. (15) Western Kentucky
Health will be the primary factor for Marquette this March. Star guard Tyler Kolek has been out of action since February 28. They’re a completely different team when he’s on the floor. Before Kolek got hurt, Marquette was 11-1 over their last 12 games. They’ve gone 3-3 without him (though, two of those losses came against the No. 1 overall seed Connecticut Huskies). The Golden Eagles will face off against a Western Kentucky team that has had some ups and downs this year. The Hilltoppers lost four in a row to close the regular season, only to win the Conference USA tournament with three straight wins. Marquette coach Shaka Smart said that Kolek will be ready for the tournament. They probably won’t need him to do much to defeat the 15-seed.
Prediction: Marquette wins 76-59
(1) Houston vs. (8) Nebraska
Houston’s defense is suffocating. We’ve seen them take opponents completely out of rhythm with their constant ball pressure and stifling tactics. TCU — a 9-seed in the Midwest — was held scoreless versus the Cougars in a Big 12 tournament matchup for over nine minutes (the Horned Frogs missed their first 14 shots of the contest). That doesn’t bode well for a Nebraska team that relies on space and timing to get their shooters into rhythm. Houston’s dynamic backcourt will give the Cornhusker guards fits all game long. The Cougars win this one by double digits.
Prediction: Houston wins 66-53
(4) Duke vs. (5) Wisconsin
A rematch of the 2015 tournament final. The Blue Devils — led by Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones — took that one over a Wisconsin team that featured Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker. The stars aren’t quite as bright this time around, but this should be a fun game featuring two of the nation’s best offenses. Look out for freshman Jared McCain to assert himself in this one. The California native struggled in Duke’s ACC tournament loss to N.C. State, but has improved steadily as the season has gone on. He nailed eight threes in a win over Florida State in February. He’s going to breakout in this one, and pour in 20-plus points in a Blue Devil win.
Prediction: Duke wins 78-74
(3) Kentucky vs. (6) Texas Tech
There’s a lot to like about this year’s Kentucky team — which is exactly why fans filling out their bracket should be wary. It’s a great setup for Calipari’s team in a region that doesn’t feature a clear favorite. However, the Wildcats have been uneven all year long. It’s only fitting Kentucky experiences a misstep against a tough, rugged Big 12 team that has grinded in the most competitive conference in college basketball all year. It doesn’t help that Kentucky lost to Kansas earlier this year, a team that the Red Raiders routed by 30 just over a month ago. Texas Tech wings Darrion Williams and Kerwin Walton both shot 47-percent from three this season and will make it rain against a Kentucky team that trots out a ton of undersized guards.
Prediction: Texas Tech wins 71-69
(2) Marquette vs. (10) Colorado
Marquette will need its point guard healthy for this one. Tyler Kolek is arguably the nation’s best, pure point guard. He had 18 assists in a game just a week before he went down with an oblique injury. His impact on offense is necessary for the Golden Eagles to get past a team like Colorado. The Buffaloes will enter this game with plenty of confidence having already won two games in the tournament. A healthy Kolek gives the edge to Marquette. If Kolek is compromised at all, this game becomes a coin flip. We’ll give the edge to the Golden Eagles after Shaka Smart reported that Kolek will be ready for the team’s opening matchup.
Prediction: Marquette wins 74-66
(1) Houston vs. (4) Duke
Houston’s No. 2 ranked defense will be tested against a Duke team that can score in bunches. The Blue Devils ranked 7th offensively on KenPom and boast a handful of players who can create their own offense and take over a stretch of gameplay. Duke will want to lean on Kyle Filipowski in this one. Asking its guards to win in isolation against Houston’s backcourt would be a tall task. Feeding Filipowski is likely their best chance at generating consistent opportunities. In a lot of ways, this Houston team is reminiscent of the Blue Devils from yesteryear. We could see L.J. Cryer and Jamal Shead slapping the floor on defense and taking charges en route to a crucial Houston victory.
Prediction: Houston wins 68-61
(2) Marquette vs. (6) Texas Tech
This is what the tournament is all about – two teams from power conferences facing off for a chance at an Elite Eight berth. The Golden Eagles have been the No. 2 team in the Big East all year, and have a great chance at making a deep run. The Red Raiders from Texas Tech have gotten hot at just the right time, and how many instances of a team carrying its end-of-season momentum through the NCAA tournament have we seen over the years? Both teams can fill it up in a hurry, so this matchup will likely come down to whichever team buys in on the defensive end. This Marquette group is experienced and hungry after an early exit last year. They pull off a win in nail-biting fashion to advance.
Prediction: Marquette wins 74-73
(1) Houston vs. (2) Marquette
The top two seeds in the South face off in what would be an epic battle. Houston’s defense has carried them all season long, and they should still be considered a national title threat even after suffering an embarrassing loss in the Big 12 championship. Marquette had a rough end to its regular season, though there is no doubting the overall makeup of Shaka Smart’s squad. In the end, we’re siding with the team that can get consistent stops. Houston has been elite all year and didn’t miss a step after moving to the Big 12. Head coach Kelvin Sampson and the Cougars will be cutting down the nets in Dallas before making their way to Phoenix for the Final Four.
Prediction: Houston wins 70-65