This is a fascinating region. Zach Edey and No. 1 Purdue are looking to avenge last year’s embarrassing Round of 64 loss to Farleigh Dickinson. If the Boilermakers are to make a run to Phoenix, they might have to knock off a Kansas team loaded with talent — albeit injured — a group of Volunteers that narrowly missed out on a No. 1 seed, and a talented Creighton team. Will one of those four advance to the Final Four or could a Cinderella crash the party?
(1) Purdue vs. (16) Montana St./Grambling
Last year, Purdue became the second No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16. The Boilermakers lost to Farleigh Dickinson and have endured a year’s worth of doubt as a result. We still have some reservations about Purdue, but there is no way it will lose to another 16-seed.
Winner: Purdue
(8) Utah St. vs. (9) TCU
This is one of the more interesting Round of 64 matchups in the Midwest. TCU is a very athletic team and has three players averaging 11 points or more — led by forward Emanuel Miller. The Horned Frogs have stumbled a bit ahead of the tournament (3-5 over their last eight), while Utah State finished 8-2 over its last ten. The Aggies finished atop a competitive Mountain West and are led by a forward who can stand up to Miller. Great Osobor led the Aggies in scoring (18.0 PPG), rebounding (9.2 RPG) and blocks (1.5 BPG). This game will go down to the wire, but TCU will seal the win with a late three.
Winner: TCU
(5) Gonzaga vs. (12) McNeese
This is not the Gonzaga we’ve come to know over the past 15+ years. Still, the Bulldogs shouldn’t be taken lightly. McNeese has been a popular upset pick following the bracket’s reveal — and for good reason. The Cowboys finished the year 30-3 and two of their losses came by three points or less. McNeese will pressure the Zags and look to create a ton of turnovers. An upset wouldn’t shock us, but we are going with Mark Few’s men.
Winner: Gonzaga
(4) Kansas vs. (13) Samford
If Kansas was healthy there would be no debate with this pick. However, the Jayhawks are limping entering the tournament and now Samford has a realistic shot at upsetting Kansas. Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. — the two top scorers in the Big 12 — missed Kansas’ 20-point loss to Cincinnati in the Big 12 Tournament. Dickinson dislocated his shoulder in the final regular season game but is tracking to play against Samford. McCullar’s status remains murky. Not at full strength, Kansas is ripe for an upset.
Winner: Samford
(6) South Carolina vs. (11) Oregon
This is another game that we could see going either way. At 26-7, South Carolina may be a bit under-seeded. The Gamecocks have wins over Tennessee and Kentucky but also have a few blowout losses — losing to Auburn by 40 in the regular season and by 31 in the SEC Tournament. They will be playing an Oregon team that is hot at the right time. The Ducks won the Pac-12 Tournament and knocked off a good Arizona team in the final. As healthy as they’ve been all year, the Ducks will win a fifth in a row.
Winner: Oregon
(3) Creighton vs. (14) Akron
A battle of the Bluejays and Zips. One of three Big East teams in the tournament, Creighton is a popular pick to make some noise in the Midwest. Offensively, the Jays are led by a three-headed attack –Baylor Scheierman, Trey Alexander and Ryan Kalkbrenner average over 17.0 PPG — and they play better defense than people realize. Akron is a capable team, but it doesn’t have enough firepower to hang with Creighton.
Winner: Creighton
(7) Texas vs. (10) Virginia/Colorado St.
While South Carolina was arguably under-seeded, Texas is on the other end of the spectrum. The Longhorns entered the year with high expectations but struggled to find consistency throughout the season. A matchup against Colorado State would be very entertaining — and we are hoping that is the game, as Virginia is the toughest watch in the country. In a close battle, the Longhorns narrowly defeat the Rams.
Winner: Texas
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) Saint Peter’s
Saint Peter’s will not be making another miracle run. The Peacocks have turned things around as of late, but they are not a threat to Tennessee. An 11-11 start to the year was followed by an 8-2 finish including three wins in the MAAC Championship. The Vols enter the tournament on a two-game losing streak, but we don’t see any chance they lose a third in a row.
Winner: Tennessee
(1) Purdue vs. (9) TCU
Zach Edey will need to bring his A-game for Purdue to knock off a talented TCU group. Riding high following its win over Utah State, TCU will be up to the task against the No. 1 seed. Look for TCU to try to speed up the game and tire out Edey in the process. Ultimately, however, Edey’s size will be too much for the Horned Frogs to handle. Purdue by seven.
Winner: Purdue
(5) Gonzaga vs. (13) Samford
Will Samford’s dream run continue into the second weekend? No. Gonzaga has been in Samford’s position before and it will not allow for an upset. Fresh off beating Will Wade and McNeese, the Zags will handle Samford by double-digits. The frontcourt duo of Graham Ike and Anton Watson will be too much to handle.
Winner: Gonzaga
(3) Creighton vs. (11) Oregon
This is an appetizing matchup. Oregon has the athleticism and talent to take out No. 3 Creighton, but the Jays have been a more consistent team throughout the season. If the Ducks get hot from beyond the arc they can pull off a second upset in a row and advance to the Sweet 16. Creighton shoots 36-percent from deep as a team and is nearly 80-percent from the line. In a close game, Creighton’s ability to shoot will take it past the Ducks — Oregon shot 33.6-percent from three and 71.5-percent from the free throw line.
Winner: Creighton
(2) Tennessee vs. (7) Texas
Texas’ tournament ends here. While talented, the Longhorns are susceptible to putting up a dud — and this will be one of them. As for Tennessee, this game will forever be known as the ‘Dalton Knecht game’. Tennessee’s best player had a bad game in its loss to Mississippi State (14 points on 4-of-17 FGA) but he is two weeks removed from dropping 40 on Kentucky. Knecht can light up any defense in America and he will do so in this game — 36 points for Knecht en route to an easy win.
Winner: Tennessee
(1) Purdue vs. (5) Gonzaga
Gonzaga will not be scared of this Purdue team. The Zags will rely on their frontcourt to put pressure on Zach Edey and hopefully get Purdue’s star into foul trouble. Both Ike and Watson are capable players and have had big games against good competition. These two teams met in November in Maui — with Purdue prevailing, 73-63. The Zags took a five-point lead into halftime but Edey and Co. dominated the final 20 minutes. Gonzaga won’t shoot 6-for-32 from three in this matchup, but Edey will once again take over. Purdue in a nail-biter.
Winner: Purdue
(2) Tennessee vs. (3) Creighton
Tennessee and Creighton can put on a classic March Madness game in the Sweet 16. As we discussed earlier, Knecht can fill it up against any team in the country. The Vols also have two other players in their rotation –guards Zakai Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack — shooting over 35-percent from three. Creighton can shoot the ball, as well, with four players shooting better than 37-percent from deep. Both of these teams are capable of making a run to the Final Four, but we are giving the nod to Creighton.
Winner: Creighton
(1) Purdue vs. (3) Creighton
Which team will cut down the nets en route to the Final Four? Creighton has reached the Elite Eight twice — including last season when it lost to San Diego State by one point — but has lost both times with a Final Four berth on the line. As for Purdue, the Boilermakers have reached the Sweet 16 six times under Matt Painter and have only won one time. This time around, Painter’s group will do just enough to advance to the Final Four for the first time since 1980.
Winner: Purdue