Brightcast
Selection Sunday is officially less than two weeks away. Before the bracket is revealed, we broke down all 32 conference tournaments to see which teams will automatically qualify for the dance. Will this year’s Cinderella appear this week?
Ohio Valley Conference
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A three-way tie atop the Ohio Valley Conference has led to an interesting situation for its tournament bracket. After all three finished conference play with a 14-4 record, Little Rock and UT Martin landed the coveted double byes while Morehead State was awarded a 3-seed. Still, the Eagles of Morehead State should be considered the prohibitive favorite. They lost to Little Rock and UT Martin by a combined seven points last month, but both games were played without Morehead State’s second-leading scorer. They beat the Skyhawks earlier this year by 20 with a healthy squad.
Prediction: Morehead State
Big South Conference
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Winthrop is no stranger to the Big South tournament. They won it in ’17, ’20, and ’21. They made it to the finals in 2022 under first-year head coach Mark Prosser. This team is built for tournament play. Most of their recent losses have been close games on the road — including a recent overtime slugfest against top-seed High Point. No team in the country gets to the line more. The Eagles shoot 27.4 free throws per game because they constantly create rim pressure and advantages. It allows them to score efficiently even when their outside shot isn’t falling. And, they’re a balanced scoring outfit. Winthrop has seven players who average at least 7.5 PPG.
Prediction: Winthrop
Atlantic Sun Conference
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Gauging which team has the advantage in the ASUN tournament is as simple as ‘riding the hot hand’. No team has been hotter than Lipscomb in conference play. The Bisons defeated Eastern Kentucky (the No. 1 seed) recently for their seventh win in eight tries. Keeping up with this offense is an absolute chore for opponents. They’ve scored at least 80 points in all of their wins in conference, and have broken 100 four times this year. The team’s four best shooters — AJ McGinnis, Derrin Boyd, Will Pruitt, and Joe Anderson — are all shooting at or above 40-percent from beyond the arc and have combined to make over 180 triples this season.
Prediction: Lipscomb
Missouri Valley Conference
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It’s the Sycamore’s time to dance once again. Indiana State will have some stiff competition in Drake, but they will overcome their biggest conference rivals to reign supreme in the Missouri Valley conference tournament. The teams split their two meetings earlier this season. However, Indiana State is the more well-rounded group which should be enough to power them to their first NCAA bid since 2011.
Prediction: Indiana State
Southern Conference
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It’s Samford vs. the field in the Southern Conference. They’ve been the best team in the league all season. A recent blowout loss to Wofford doesn’t change that seeing as Samford was down multiple starters in that game. When at full strength, this is one of the most efficient offenses in the nation. No team in the country has scored more points than Samford this season. Plus, they rank fifth nationally in three-point percentage, sixth in assists, and seventh in steals. Samford is the type of double-digit seed that will shock an at-large mid-major in the Round of 64.
Prediction: Samford
Sun Belt Conference
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James Madison and Appalachian State will duke it out to see who wins the Sun Belt. We can envision a scenario where these two teams square off in the conference tournament. James Madison does have regular-season victories over Michigan State, Fresno State, and Buffalo. While they did lose to the Mountaineers twice in the regular season, both of those games were within six points. It’s difficult to beat a good team three-straight times — which is why we think JMU breaks the losing streak and wins when it matters most.
Prediction: James Madison
Horizon League
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There may not be a more competitive conference tournament this season than the one taking place for the Horizon League. Eight teams finished with at least 11 league wins. Oakland landed the No. 1 seed but in their last game, they were trailing at half to a Detroit Mercy team that finished the year 1-30. Their previous game was a 20-point blowout loss to Wright State. The Raiders of Wright State might be the favorite to win it all, but we’re going with the No. 8 seed Purdue Fort Wayne to pull off an upset and go all the way. The Mastodons play fast but have a good defense. Guard Quinton Morton-Robinson is one of the best shooters in the country, converting on over 40-percent of his threes with over 7 attempts per game.
Prediction: Purdue Fort Wayne
Northeast Conference
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The top-seed tiebreaker going in Central Connecticut’s favor could ultimately decide the NEC tournament. CCU and Merrimack both ended conference play with 13 wins. Merrimack had a chance to clinch the regular season title in their final game but ultimately lost a close battle with the No. 3 seed Sacred Heart. That loss ceded home-court advantage to the Blue Devils of Central Connecticut for the entirety of the NEC tournament. It’s especially brutal as Merrimack was 11-1 at home this year and just 7-9 on the road. That being said, the Warriors have been the better team for most of the year. They had won 10 in a row before the loss at Sacred Heart. They’ll narrowly defeat Central Connecticut in the final to clinch a spot in the NCAA’s
Prediction: Merrimack
Coastal Athletic Association
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The Coastal Athletic Conference is another group with a bunch of teams crammed together. Eight teams finished with double-digit wins in the conference. The Charleston Cougars have made some noise in the past and finished atop the league with a 15-3 record. They haven’t lost since February 1 (nine in a row). Over that stretch, they defeated all of the teams that could potentially give them trouble in the tournament. They just knocked off a hot Hofstra team by double digits. One of the teams coming out of the other side of the bracket will make it difficult in the final, but it’s Charleston’s tournament to lose.
Prediction: Charleston
West Coast Conference
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This is St. Mary’s year. Gonzaga had long run the WCC. While the Zags are still a formidable foe, the Gaels objectively speaking are the stronger team this year. Nearly five players average double-figures for St. Mary’s — including the frontcourt pairing of Mitchell Saxen and Joshua Jefferson, and the backcourt duo of Aidan Mahaney and Augustas Marciulionis. Gonzaga won the most recent meeting, but this team is too deep and talented for Gonzaga to handle twice in 10 days.
Prediction: St. Mary’s
Summit League
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Heading into the Summit League tournament, the South Dakota State Jack Rabbits appear to be prohibitive favorites. And, it’s not hard to see why. South Dakota State has won seven-of-eight, and has the most balanced attack of any team in the league. However, we’re going with a bit of a dark horse pick in North Dakota. The Fighting Hawks have the length and athleticism to match up with any team in the conference. Plus, they’ve already lost to South Dakota State twice this year. Beating a team three times in one season is always difficult.
Prediction: North Dakota
Southland Conference
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The Cowboys of McNeese have run roughshod through the Southland all year long. Their lone loss came by a three-point defeat to SE Louisiana on the road. Since then, they’ve won their last eight games by an average score of 21 points. It’s been clear all season that they are a level above the rest of the league. Now, will they be able to knock off a team in the NCAA tournament? That part is still in question…
Prediction: McNeese
Patriot League
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This is another easy pick. Colgate has won the Patriot League tournament four times in the last five seasons. Their lone loss came in 2020 when they lost in the final by three to Boston University. This team isn’t the best we’ve seen under coach Matt Langel, but they’ve been just as dominant as ever over the rest of the league. They had a six-win cushion for the regular season title. And, they finished first in both offense and defense. Colgate goes dancing, again.
Prediction: Colgate
Big Sky Conference
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Eastern Washington is the class of this conference. While Northern Colorado, Montana, and Damian Lillard’s alma mater Weber State are competitive, it would be a surprise to see anyone other than the Eagles win this conference tournament. UCLA transfer Jake Kyman averages 11 PPG on 42-percent from behind the arc. Forward Cedric Coward leads the team in scoring and is one of four guys shooting at least 40-percent from three-point range. No one will want to see this team assuming EWU makes it to the NCAA Tournament.
Prediction: Eastern Washington
America East Conference
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Another squad familiar with March, the Catamounts of Vermont are playing their best ball at the end of the season. Vermont finished with a 14-1 record in AEC league play and capped off the regular season with dominant wins over Bryant and UMass. They haven’t lost a game by more than two points since the middle of December. They’re led by one of the best defenses in the country, which allowed the ninth fewest points per game nationally (62.8).
Prediction: Vermont
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
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When in doubt, go with the team that can get the hottest from beyond the arc. Howard is the best shooting team in the MEAC by a long shot. Though, they didn’t exactly face much competition for that distinction. Howard has shot 37.3-percent from three this year — good for 26th in the nation. The next, best MEAC squad shot 33.9-percent (North Carolina Central) — ranking 190th nationally. If Fred Cleveland, Ja’Darius Harris, or Po’Boigh King can make it rain from deep, there won’t be a team in the MEAC that can keep up on the scoreboard.
Prediction: Howard
Big 12 Conference
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Iowa State might be the best team no one is really talking about. Freshman Milan Momcilovic has been a revelation as the four-spot — spreading the floor from the perimeter and also scoring in the paint. From there, the guard trio of Keshon Gilbert, Tamin Lipsey, and Curtis Jones can all play. With Kansas not clicking on all cylinders, this likely will come down to ISU, Baylor, or Houston.
Prediction: Iowa State
Mountain West
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There are several teams within the Mountain West playing well as we move towards the conference tournament. It’s one of the deepest conferences in the country, and arguably among the more talented. Conceivably, Boise State, New Mexico, Colorado State, Nevada, Utah State, and UNLV can all win this competition. However, we like SDSU to ultimately take it. This team has the most talent of any in the conference, not to mention the highest ceiling on the defensive end of the floor. Roll with the Aztecs and their pedigree.
Prediction: San Diego State
Big East
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After reaming his team publicly, Rick Pitino has the Johnnies playing with much more focus and energy. He is simply a wizard — and in postseason play teams certainly do not want to face a Pitino-led squad. The hysteria and excitement present whenever St. John’s has a game in the conference tournament will be massive. While UConn and Creighton are better teams, we could see a scenario where St. John’s plays over its head en route to a conference tournament title.
Prediction: St. John’s
Mid-American Conference
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John Groce is a veteran coach. He knows which buttons to push, and how to best motivate his team. A few years ago, his Zips gave UCLA all it could handle in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Two studs from that team — Ali Ali and Enrique Freeman — are back to further lead this team. Freeman is a matchup nightmare. He averages 18 PPG and nearly 13 RPG. Freeman plays much bigger than his 6’7″ frame would indicate. he not only shoots threes at 38-percent, but he also averages 1.5 blocks per game.
Prediction: Akron
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
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The Peacocks are back, and they are playing some of the best defense in the country currently. St. Peter’s ranks 11th nationally in points per game allowed. They’ve allowed over 65 points in regulation just once over a 12-game stretch. They limit possessions, force turnovers, and grab every loose ball. There isn’t a team in the MAAC that wants to face Bashir Mason’s defense in the halfcourt. St. Peter’s will play suffocating defense and do just enough on the other end to stamp their NCAA ticket for the second time in three years.
Prediction: Saint Peter’s
Conference USA
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Louisiana Tech and Sam Houston State are the class of Conference USA. Both have the talent and depth to win this conference tournament. From a consistency standpoint, we might have to give the Bulldogs an edge. This is a team that can get hot in a hurry. Four of its rotation players — including leading scorer Isaiah Crawford — shoot over 40-percent from three. They’re hard to guard, and ex-Texas Tech center Daniel Batcho averages a double-double to go along with 2.4 blocks per contest.
Prediction: Louisiana Tech
Atlantic Coast Conference
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The usual suspects Duke and North Carolina will be the favorites heading into this tournament. Virginia is tricky, though it still struggles to score the basketball for long stretches. As a dark horse pick, look out for the Orange. Syracuse has a history of playing exceptionally well during these conference tournaments. The team has notched wins this year over the likes of Oregon and North Carolina. With Miami and Notre Dame both down this year, and other squads inconsistent, Syracuse will be the ‘giant slayer’ in the ACC. Also, for good measure, keep an eye on Pitt.
Prediction: Syracuse
Pac-12
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Washington State might be the most complete team in the conference. They’re not only big and long, but they can shoot it, too. Kyle Smith is a fantastic coach — and it won’t be long until a bigger program comes calling. The Cougs have all of the ingredients to not only make a run in the Pac-12 Tournament but also the Big Dance later this month. Don’t sleep on the Cougars…they’re for real.
Prediction: Washington State
Big West Conference
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UC Irvine has been the top dog in the Big West for quite some time, and we don’t foresee that changing any time soon. The Anteaters play cohesive basketball on both ends of the floor. A balanced offense is led by the three-headed guard trio of Andre Henry, Derin Saran, and Justin Hohn. If you’re looking at a potential bracket-busting Mid-Major, look no further than Irvine.
Prediction: UC Irvine
Southwestern Athletic Conference
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It’s been a wild season for the Grambling Bulldogs. After starting the year 2-10, the Tigers put themselves in a position to win the SWAC regular season title. Though, even with the No. 1 seed, Grambling should not be considered the favorites. We’ll side with Texas Southern, who are looking for their fourth-straight trip to the NCAA tournament. They split the season series with the Bulldogs, but have been playing better ball as of late. Plus, they have plenty of experience. Texas Southern leading scorer PJ Henry has 136 NCAA games under his belt and is averaging a career-high 15.0 PPG on the season.
Prediction: Texas Southern
Western Athletic Conference
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The WAC will likely come down to one of two teams, Grand Canyon or Tarleton State. The two clubs have been the best the conference has had to offer all year. At one point, the GCU Antelopes were 17-1 and looked like a team that could even land an at-large bid. That isn’t the case anymore, but they should still stamp their ticket with a WAC tournament win. Tarleton State beat them by three in February, but GCU blew them out at home by 26 earlier this season. This is a well-rounded group that nationally ranks 49th in points per game and 56th in points allowed per game.
Prediction: Grand Canyon
Ivy League
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Don’t bet against Princeton. The Tigers yet again return a veteran squad chock-full of playmakers and shooters. They’ve been battling Yale and Cornell for much of the season as the class within the Ivy League. When looking at the depth and talent of the team, we just foresee a nice run throughout the conference tournament and eventually toward the NCAA Tournament. Xaivian Lee in particular can really score the basketball.
Prediction: Princeton
Southeastern Conference
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Kentucky is peaking at the right time. With its young yet uber-talented roster, Coach Calipari has the Wildcats playing inspired ball on both ends of the floor. The freshmen duo of Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham is probably the best in basketball at this point. Both play beyond their years — each complementing what the other doesn’t possess. Furthermore, you know UK will have the support of its fan base at this conference tournament.
Prediction: Kentucky
Atlantic 10 Conference
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Sorry Sister Jean, but the Richmond Spiders will narrowly beat out Loyola-Chicago and Dayton en route to a tournament title. Earlier in the year, Richmond notched impressive wins over Charlotte, Buffalo, Wyoming, Dayton, St. Louis, Davidson, and UNLV. Jordan King is one of the best scoring guards in college basketball, and the team has multiple guys shooting north of 40-percent from three-point range.
Prediction: Richmond
American Athletic Conference
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USF is on a stunning streak that has seen the Bulls win 14 in a row (as of March 5th). With that said, FAU has been there and done it before. Memphis might be a tricky foe based on the talent level Penny Hardaway has accrued. With that said, the Owls are a battle-tested squad and feature some pretty good talent of their own in Johnell Davis and Vlad Goldin.
Prediction: Florida Atlantic
Big Ten Conference
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It’s difficult to pick against the Boilermakers in this scenario. The Big Ten has one great team (Purdue), one decent one (Illinois) and a bunch of mediocre-to-poor ones. Matt Painter’s team is playing at an exceptionally high level right now. Looking to avenge last year’s quick exit from the tournament, this team has the look of one that could feasibly and realistically compete for a Championship. The other teams in the league appear to be far too inconsistent. If we’re looking for a dark horse club, don’t sleep on Ohio State. Since the coaching change, the Buckeyes have played much better.
Prediction: Purdue
