March Madness is finally here. Here are 24 bold predictions for the 2024 tournament. How many of these predictions will come true?
The Pac-12 Will Not Win A Game
Only four Pac-12 schools made it to the big dance this year. Arizona, Oregon, Washington State, and Colorado will be the last to represent a conference that will virtually cease to exist next season. In a weak conference, there seemed to be no clear number one all season long. Arizona was the highest-ranked team all year but managed to lose both of their matchups to Washington State. And then an unranked Oregon and Colorado teams found themselves in the Pac-12 Championship game. The boldest of this would be 2-seed Arizona losing to 15-seed Long Beach State. But Long Beach State has been on a tear recently after firing/rehiring coach Dan Monson who led Beach to a conference championship. Oregon faces a tough South Carolina team, Colorado may lose their play-in game to Boise State (thus not really even making the tournament), and Washington State faces a red-hot Drake team. After the Pac-12 dominated in the tournament just a couple of years ago, this will be a sad final display of a depleted conference.
UConn Will Not Win The East
Well, this doesn’t sound like that bold of a prediction except that UConn has been virtually unbeatable this season, only recording three losses all year. Despite losing last year’s sharpshooter Jordan Hawkins, this team might have actually improved from beyond the arc this season. So how are they not making it to the Final Four you ask? It has more to do with Illinois and Iowa State than it has to do with the Huskies. It’s incredibly difficult to repeat as champs (only done by seven programs, the last of which was Florida in ’06-’07). The Cyclones and the Illini both run smaller and quicker lineups that will result in a fast-paced shootout and may be difficult for UConn if they decide to play center Donovan Clingan the 22 minutes per game he’s been getting this season.
Utah State vs Purdue Will Come Down to the Buzzer
Now this is all assuming Purdue can get past a 16-seed this year and Utah State can best the TCU Horned Frogs in the first round. But assuming we see that, we should see an excellent matchup between the 7’4 300lb Edey and the incredibly talented forward Great Osobor (6’8, 250 lbs). While both teams have guards that are shooting lights out beyond the arc, the matchup really comes down to these stud big men. While Osobor would have his hands full on defense, Edey may struggle to keep up with the agile forward who is averaging 18 points and nine rebounds per game. While Purdue seems to have the upper hand on paper, they have not done well in the tournament since Edey has been a part of the program.
Long Beach State Will Beat Arizona
This coincides with the Pac-12 failing to win a basketball game in this year’s tournament. But let’s break this down a little further. Long Beach State head coach Dan Monson has coached at LBSU for 17 years. He decided to mutually part ways with the program prior to the Big West tournament, then Beach ended up winning the tournament — thus giving Monson one more ride before he leaves for good. Long Beach is a hot team right now, and Arizona has struggled all year in one of the weakest conferences in the NCAA. Arizona lost to a 4th place Pac-12 team in Oregon in the semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament. Caleb Love, a star transfer from UNC, seems to either win Arizona games or shoot them out of games. If Arizona gets behind early, look for Love to try to play hero and end their tournament run in the first round.
Grand Canyon Will Make the Elite Eight
So we’re all on the same page here, this means GCU will have to beat Saint Mary’s in the first round, Alabama/Charleston in the Round of 32, and then likely UNC in the Sweet Sixteen. And they will. The Lopes play with energy, effort, and pace. In four years, GC has a .750 win percentage in the regular season — and a .735 win percentage in conference play. GCU won the Western Athletic Conference Tournament and is poised to make its furthest run ever in the NCAA Tournament. Grand Canyon is 11th in the country in point differential this year meaning their defense is just as solid as their offense. They are an athletic, fast-paced team that’s going to be very difficult to keep up with down the stretch. This is the highest seed they’ve had in the tournament in their last three trips, and they will no doubt capitalize on the lower-seed opponents they’ll get to face.
Creighton Will Make the Final Four
Creighton is one of the best teams in the country in one of the weaker regions of this year’s bracket. Purdue and Tennessee do not have a great recent history in the tournament. Kansas may be their toughest opponent in the mid west. Creighton has impressive wins over UConn and Marquette this season and returns its top three players from last year’s tournament (where they lost by one to SDSU in the Sweet Sixteen). Baylor Scheierman has simply been fantastic averaging 18.4 points, nine rebounds, and four assists per game. He is also shooting 37.2% from three. This team is ready to make a deep run this year and they have all the experience and offensive firepower to do so.
No Texas Schools Will Get a Win
Whoa…that’s a lot of highly-ranked teams going down in the first round. Let’s break it down. Texas versus Colorado State or Virginia: Texas will be outcoached by either team and is a paltry 108th in points allowed this season. Houston on the other hand has the best defense in the country, but constantly finds themselves in trouble when teams start scoring (as shown by their tournament losses the past two seasons). Longwood is by no means an offensive powerhouse, but they have put up over 90 four times this season and 7-foot Longwood center Szymon Zapala will be tough for a team that starts two forwards four inches shorter. TCU will have their work cut out for them against Utah State’s star forward Great Osobor who has been virtually unstoppable this season.
Nebraska has three starters shooting over 37% from three and Texas A&M has zero. That will make it tough to win in March. The Texas Tech versus NC State game will likely all come down to NC State guard DJ Horne. Horne is a bit of a streaky player, but when he gets going, he is lights out Horne had 18 points against Duke in the ACC Tournament and 29 against UNC to win the Tournament and make it to March Madness. If Horne gets cooking, Texas Tech will have another short March. The last matchup is Baylor versus Colgate. This one is a bit trickier, but Baylor has struggled against the better defensive teams this year and Colgate has the 11th-ranked defense in the country. If Colgate can slow Baylor enough to make life difficult, they have plenty of scoring power to put the Bears away early this year.
FAU Will Lose in the First Round After Making it to the Final Four Last Year
Still riding the Florida Atlantic train from last year? Their fans certainly are. The matchup against Northwestern is going to be very even. Both of these teams have some impressive wins on their resume this season (Northwestern beat Purdue & Illinois, FAU beat Texas A&M & Arizona). FAU leans heavily on center Vladislav Goldin, who struggled against SDSU’s big men in the Final Four last year, scoring only 5 points. Northwestern has 7-footer Matthew Nicholson to combat the 7’1 Goldin and will likely make it difficult for the big man to get going. Both of these teams have guards who can score, but FAU’s second-leading scorer is Goldin, whereas Northwestern will be leaning on their guards to score. Boo Buie of Northwestern has been incredible this year and will have a big game to knock out FAU in the first round this year. Remember FAU only won their round one game against an 8-seed by one point last year before facing 16-seed FDU. Their fabled run may not have been as difficult as some of you remember.
The Record For Most 3s In A Tournament Game Is Broken
Loyola Marymount sharpshooter Jeff Fryer sunk 11 threes in a tournament game in 1990. We saw Purdue’s Carsen Edwards come close to surpassing that mark twice during the 2019 tournament, nailing nine triples versus Villanova before hitting ten in a memorable game against Virginia. This year, somebody finally shatters Fryer’s mark after four decades. Some of the best three-point specialists in the country are featured in this year’s field. Oakland’s Jack Gohlke made 121 threes in 34 games (and attempted only eight shots inside the arc all year). Guys like Creighton’s Baylor Scheierman, North Carolina’s RJ Davis, Mississippi State’s Josh Hubbard, Houston’s L.J. Cryer, Texas’ Max Abmas and Connecticut’s Cam Spencer can all heat up in an instant and start pouring it in from the outside.
Every Team In The Mountain West Wins At Least One Game
The Mountain West will be sending a conference record six teams to the tournament this year. Don’t be shocked to see all of the MWC teams find early success during the opening weekend. Two of the teams – Colorado State and Boise State – will have the upper hand in their respective First Four matchups. San Diego St. is potentially under-seeded as a 5-seed and will make quick work of a UAB team that had to scrap its way into the field. Nevada and New Mexico are excellent upset picks over two teams that struggled down the stretch (Dayton and Clemson). And, No. 1 seed Purdue better watch out for Utah State after the Aggies defeat TCU in the Round of 64.
Duke Will Lose To A Double-Digit Seed
Vermont or James Madison is ending Duke’s season in the tournament. This Duke team hasn’t looked great all year long. And, they were not given much reprieve with the way the bracket shook up. Their first matchup will be against the 13-seed Catamounts. The AEC champions slow the game down and force their opponents to play at a different pace. Duke will struggle to find easy looks in this matchup. If they are able to advance past Vermont, it sets up Duke versus the Dukes. The 12-seed James Madison Dukes won 31 games during the regular season and are one of the most dangerous double-digit seeds in the entire field. They can shoot the lights out and will put a ton of pressure on Duke to be perfect on their offensive end.
BYU Outduels Illinois In The Highest-Scoring Game Of The Tournament
A 3-6 matchup between two of the best offensive in the country looms large. College basketball fans should be craving a matchup between Illinois and BYU. The champions of the Big Ten, Illinois, finished eighth in PPG in the nation. They scored 98 against Nebraska in the semifinals before hanging up 93 points in a conference tournament title win over Wisconsin. BYU – ranked 20th in PPG – shares the ball and can light it up from the perimeter. They finished second in three-pointers made and third in assists per game. Expect plenty of fireworks if these two teams face off.
A 1-Seed Will Be Trailing At Half To A 16-Seed
We won’t go as far as predicting a 1-seed falls for the second-straight year. Instead, we’re leaning towards one of the top seeds merely starting slowly out of the gates. There is an inherent amount of pressure that comes with being a top team. The gap between the best teams and the rest of the pack shrinks each year. Of course, Purdue will be the team most will point to in this regard. It’s worth noting that Virginia was down 14 to Gardner Webb at one point and trailed at halftime the year after losing to UMBC. Doubt will creep into the Boilermakers’ minds if they come out flat. But, we’re not saying it couldn’t happen to UConn, Houston, or North Carolina either. All the 1-seeds need to be on their guard from the opening whistle.
Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham Carry Kentucky To A Final Four
Elite guard play reigns supreme in the NCAA tournament. And, there aren’t too many teams that can match up with Kentucky’s backcourt. Shockingly, John Calipari chose to bring Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham off the bench for most of the year. However, we see Cal leaning on his pair of gifted freshmen throughout the tournament. The bracket is set up well for the Wildcats as the 2-seed on their side – Marquette – is less than 100-percent with point guard Tyler Kolek dealing with an injury. Sheppard and Dillingham are explosive talents who can take over any matchup.
Gonzaga’s Streak Of Sweet 16 Appearances Is Snapped
The Bulldogs have been present at every single NCAA tournament since 1999. They haven’t lost a Round of 64 game since Stephen Curry’s Davidson team upset them in 2008. Mark Few’s squad has made 12 consecutive Sweet 16s. That streak ends in 2024. This Bulldogs team isn’t as gifted as we’ve seen in years past. And, they pulled a rough draw against McNeese. The Cowboys won 30 games under first-year coach Will Wade. Gonzaga’s March will end earlier than usual this season.
Kansas Loses Its First Game
The Jayhawks limped into the tournament. They were without their two best players – Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson – throughout the entire Big 12 Tournament. Both players are likely suiting up in Kansas’ first-round matchup with Samford, but we can’t expect either to be fully healthy. The Bulldogs dominated the Southern Conference and boast a balanced attack. Every player in Samford’s rotation is a threat from beyond the arc and their top three scorers – Achor Achor, A.J. Staton-McCray, and Jaden Campbell – all shot over 42-percent from three. With their two stars compromised, the Jayhawks are in serious trouble.
North Carolina First 1-seed Eliminated
The Tar Heels have had quite a journey over the past three years. Following an improbable run to the NCAA Final in 2022, UNC entered ’23 as the No. 1 team in the nation — and failed to make the NCAA Tournament. This year, the Tar Heels began the year ranked No. 19 and enter the tournament as a 1-seed. UNC faces a few tricky games early on. A Round of 32 matchup against Mississippi State or Michigan State can end in an upset, but they will prevail. However, the Tar Heels will lose to Alabama in the Sweet 16 and become the first 1-seed to be eliminated.
John Calipari’s Job Questioned
If Kentucky doesn’t make a run this year, John Calipari’s job security may be the biggest talking point of the offseason. Calipari hasn’t led his team past the Round of 32 since the 2018-19 season. Additionally, the Wildcats missed the tournament in 2020-21 — a shocking failure considering the talent on the roster. Calipari has a massive contract, but an early loss could turn up the heat quite a bit in Lexington.
Pitino In The Sweet 16
Rick Pitino and St. John’s may have been one of the biggest snubs on Selection Sunday, but a Pitino will reach the second weekend of the tournament. Richard Pitino led his New Mexico Lobos to glory in the Mountain West Tournament and secured an 11-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Pitino’s group will upset Clemson in the Round of 64 and Baylor in the Round of 32, respectively, before bowing out in the Sweet 16.
Three Big East Teams in Elite 8
All three Big East teams — UConn, Marquette, and Creighton — will reach the Elite 8. The defending champion Huskies have been the best team in the nation for most of the year and should be considered the favorite once again. Marquette has some big health concerns, but it will make a run in the South and have an opportunity to reach the Final Four. In the Midwest, Creighton will cut down the nets and reach the Final Four. It is wild that only three teams from the conference earned a trip to the NCAA Tournament.
Wisconsin and Duke Lose Round 1
Duke, the 4-seed in the South, and Wisconsin, the 5-seed in the South, will both lose in the Round of 64. The Blue Devils face a familiar mid-major — the Vermont Catamounts. Duke is extremely talented but is also young. Looking ahead to a matchup with Wisconsin, the Blue Devils come up short against Vermont. As for Wisconsin, it was dealt a tough matchup. James Madison enters the NCAA Tournament with a 31-3 record and is currently on a 13-game winning streak. JMU has scored 80+ points in eight of its last nine games — it will top that mark again versus the Badgers.
Dalton Knecht Drops 40
Tennessee’s No. 1 option may be the best player in the tournament not named Zach Edey. Knecht averaged a team-high 21.1 PPG this year — nobody else scored over 11 PPG. Currently skyrocketing up draft boards, Knecht scored 30+ points seven times this season including a 40-point performance at Kentucky on March 9. In the Round of 32, Knecht will top his season-high and drop 43 on Tennessee’s opponent.
Virginia Fails to Score 50 Points
The Cavaliers aren’t too far removed from winning the National Championship. In 2024, however, Virginia is arguably the most difficult team to watch. The third-place finishers in the ACC regular season failed to score 50 points seven times this year — including four times in their last eight games. In a loss to Colorado State, Virginia will struggle to crack 45 points.
NCAA Final Ends on a Buzzer-Beater
Some of the best moments in basketball history include buzzer-beating efforts. This year, the National Championship will come down to the final moments. An epic game between two great teams will be decided by the last shot of the game. Will it go in? Will a team face heartbreak like Gordon Hayward and the Butler Bulldogs did in 2010? Buckets. Championship secured. Cue the confetti.