1. Bracket Buster: (11) Rutgers
One of the teams in the play-in round seemingly makes a deep run in the tournament every year. Last year, UCLA was one of the last at-large teams to make the field, won a close game over Michigan State in the play-in, and rallied all the way to the Final Four — before losing at the buzzer against an undefeated Gonzaga squad. If we’re looking for a team that could make a similar run, Rutgers fits the bill.
The Scarlet Knights narrowly made the field despite boasting a worthy resume. Rutgers holds wins over eight tournament teams — Purdue, Michigan, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana. They finished Big Ten play with a better conference record than both Michigan schools — who each avoided the play-in. Rutgers has plenty of offensive firepower between Ron Harper Jr. and Geo Baker. The two seniors have made 411 threes combined over their Scarlet Knights careers.
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2. Upset Alert: (3) Wisconsin
Wisconsin has the look of a team that could potentially make it far in the tourney. They have a true No. 1 option in Player of the Year candidate Johnny Davis, play good defense, and boast plenty of experience. Despite an early exit in the Big Ten tournament, Wisconsin was strong all year and deservedly won a share of the regular season conference title.
That being said, there’s reason to be nervous if you’re a Wisconsin fan. The team dropped a favorable matchup against Nebraska in the final game of the regular season which would have clinched sole possession of the regular season title. Additionally, Wisconsin is a team that is prone to playing close games. Their inability to thrash lesser teams increases their variance on a nightly basis. A couple of bad bounces and we could be looking at their first-round opponent — Colgate — advancing to the Round of 32.
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3. Bracket Buster: (9) Marquette
Marquette has a good chance to make it past the Round of 64 for the first time since 2013. After starting the season 8-6, the Golden Eagles ended the year winning 11 of their last 17 matchups with key wins over Big East rivals. Their biggest win came back in January when they dominated Providence from the opening tip. In doing so, Marquette handed the Friars their worst loss of the season (88-56).
Also, Shaka Smart is back in his natural habitat as a gritty underdog with low expectations. Following his tumultuous tenure with the Texas Longhorns, Smart is ready to prove why he’s one of the savviest coaches in the nation. Smart’s group has been locked-in defensively all year, but it’s been their offense which has come on strong as of late. Marquette finished second in PPG during conference play. Watch out for reserves Kam Jones and Greg Elliott. The pair of guards can fill it up in a hurry, and don’t need a whole lot of playing time to make an impact.
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4. Upset Alert: (4) Illinois
Illinois is back in the field following a disappointing run in the tournament last year. A majority of the roster from last season remains — sans Ayo Dosunmu and Adam Miller — but with a couple of key additions. Utah transfer Alfonso Plummer is second on the team in scoring, and sophomore Coleman Hawkins has seen an increased role in Year 2 with the program. Still, this team is built around the same ideals that earned them a No. 1 seed in last year’s tourney — the steadiness of upperclassmen Trent Frazier and Da’Monte Williams and the brilliance of Kofi Cockburn and Andre Curbelo.
However, just like last year, the Fighting Illini were dealt a tough draw. Illinois may have made it deeper into the 2021 NCAA Tournament had they been able to avoid a battle-tested Loyola-Chicago team. In ’22, Illinois faces off against a Chattanooga team that is flying high after its dramatic victory in the Southern Conference Championship. The Mocs will not back down from this matchup, led by one of the best players in the nation in guard Malachi Smith (20.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG on 50/40/80 shooting-splits).
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5. Bracket Buster: (12) Indiana
Dipping back into the play-in field, Indiana should feel slighted with their seeding. The Hoosiers watched as fellow Big Ten members like Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State were granted access to the Round of 64, while Indiana was left to fend for itself in a First Four matchup. Many pundits figured Indiana had secured its spot in the field after its impressive victory over Illinois in the Big Ten conference tournament. That spot seemed even further solidified after the Hoosiers narrowly lost on a wild buzzer beater to Iowa in the semifinal.
Alas, the committee chose to punish an Indiana team that ended the season losing eight of its last 12 games. The Hoosiers will have their hands full with a 25-8 Wyoming team that ended the season on a similarly mediocre note (4-6 over last 10 games). That being said, if Indiana can make it past Wyoming, the Hoosiers can make some noise. They have an All-American level player in Trayce Jackson-Davis, and have proven themselves against some of the best teams in the country. A Round of 32 matchup between Indiana and UCLA would be a battle between two of the most storied programs in the nation.
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6. Upset Alert: (7) Ohio State
The Buckeyes were a bit fortunate in their seeding as the No. 7 down south, but earned a brutal draw against the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers. Normally, a 7-seed is supposed to enter as a slight favorite over the 10-seed, but this is the case of a role reversal between these two clubs. In a lot of ways, this matchup — on paper — is a bit of a toss-up. Don’t believe us? KenPom has Loyola-Chicago ranked above Ohio State, and Vegas’ opening line has the Ramblers as a 1-point favorite early.
The numbers favoring Loyola-Chicago aren’t all too surprising when you factor in the Buckeyes’ health. Ohio State was without Kyle Young and Zed Key in their most recent matchup, and it’s unclear whether either will be back for the NCAA tournament. Young and Key are the Buckeyes’ third and fourth highest scorers — respectively — and Ohio State needs both to be healthy if the team hopes to make a deep run this March.
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7. Bracket Buster: (13) South Dakota St.
Beware the Giant Killers this time of year. Giant Killers are teams that are built to give higher-ranked opponents a tough time. Among potential candidates, South Dakota State is a team that is perhaps far better than that seeding indicates. The Jackrabbits are no stranger to the tournament. They made the field five times in a seven-year span from 2012-18. Now, South Dakota State is back and ready to knock off the Big East regular season champions.
According to KenPom, Providence is the 49th ranked team in the nation while South Dakota State checks in at 71st — a 22-spot difference. Looking at another 4-13 matchup, the UCLA Bruins (ranked 8th in KenPom) have a 123-spot disparity between their opponent the Akron Zips (131st). The Friars and the Jackrabbits aren’t all that different, and Providence has played close games all year. Additionally, South Dakota State can fill it up, finishing second in PPG in the nation behind only Gonzaga.
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8. Upset Alert: (2) Auburn
Auburn hasn’t looked the same since starting the season 22-1. The Tigers finished the season 5-4, and dropped its first-round SEC Tournament matchup against a Texas A&M team that failed to make the NCAA field. Admittedly, Auburn hasn’t played particularly well in months. Even when they were ranked No. 1 in the nation, the Tigers struggled to put away lesser teams and routinely played down to their competition.
While we won’t go out on a limb and predict a first-round upset, Auburn could have its hands full against a Jacksonville State team that loves to get up-and-down the floor. The issue with the Tigers arise when they have to faceoff against a team that has strong guard play. Auburn’s guards have routinely shot them out of games. Starting guard K.D. Johnson went 0-for-14 in their loss to A&M. Both Johnson and Wendell Green Jr. are shooting below 39-percent from the field. If those two decide to take it upon themselves — instead of getting Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler involved — Auburn will be in serious trouble.
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9. Bracket Buster: (10) Loyola-Chicago
The Ramblers are becoming regulars in the NCAA Tournament field with their third appearance in the last four years. Loyola-Chicago enjoyed a deep run in each of its previous two tries, and could be looking at another successful March. While they aren’t quite as sound defensively as last year (still finished 18th in points allowed), the Ramblers are an improved offensive club which finished 11th in the nation in three-point percentage.
Last year’s star Cameron Krutwig is gone, but Loyola-Chicago returned several key players from last year’s including the backcourt of Lucas Williamson and Braden Norris. Experience, defense, and three-point shooting can lead a team a long way in the tournament. And as stated before, Loyola-Chicago is by all accounts not an underdog in their first-round matchup with the 7-seed Ohio State Buckeyes.
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10. Upset Alert: (6) Texas
The Longhorns limped into the NCAA Tournament, and have sported the look of a club that is eagerly awaiting an early exit. Texas dropped three in a row to end the year with losses to Baylor, Kansas, and TCU. While those three clubs are certainly nothing to scoff at, something has been missing from this Texas club in Chris Beard’s first year with the team. Perhaps it stems back to their blowout defeat in Lubbock a month ago.
Texas hasn’t been the same after Beard lost to his former team. It needed clutch moments to topple Oklahoma and West Virginia and finished the year 9-9 after a 12-2 start. Additionally, Texas is one of the worst shooting teams in the field. The Longhorns shot 32-percent from three over the season. The team’s top three shooters — Andrew Jones, Courtney Ramey, and Marcus Carr — are all shooting worse than their career averages this season.
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11. Bracket Buster: (13) Vermont
The Catamounts are always a threat when they make the field. Vermont ran roughshod through the America East Conference with a 17-1 record including a dominant an absolutely dominant performance in the conference tournament. John Becker’s club has lost just one game since the first week of December — an overtime defeat on the road to Hartford back on February 14th.
This club is confident, plays sound on both ends, and boasts two top scoring threats in Ryan Davis (17.2 PPG) and Ben Shungu (16.2). Both senior scorers also shoot over 40-percent from beyond the arc, as does guard Aaron Deloney, who was named AEC Sixth Man of the Year. Vermont faces off with Arkansas in the Round of 64, a team that struggled in their first matchup against Colgate last year. Just like Colgate, Vermont can catch fire from the outside and potentially upset their SEC foe.
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12. Upset Alert: (2) Duke
When it comes to perennial power Duke, you either fall into one of two camps. Either you’re a Duke supporter — which means you have them defying all odds and winning a title in Coach K’s final season. Or, you’re a Duke hater — and you have them losing one of their first few games in embarrassing fashion. There is no in-between.
Duke’s first matchup will be up against the Big West champion Cal St. Fullerton. While Fullerton is no Lehigh with C.J. McCollum, the Titans have the utmost confidence after taking down Long Beach State in the title game in dramatic fashion. And, as we’ve seen thus far, this Duke squad hasn’t exactly risen to the occasion down the stretch. The team was ravaged in the ACC title game versus Virginia Tech, and the home loss in Coach K’s final game at Cameron Indoor still looms in the mind of every Duke fan. Could we see the Blue Devils make an early exit this March? It’s certainly plausible.
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13. Bracket Buster: (13) Chattanooga
The Mocs are quickly becoming a trendy pick to make it past the Round of 64. Illinois will need to be on its A-game to fend off the Southern Conference Champions. Slowing down Illinois big man Kofi Cockburn will obviously be no easy task. However, if Chattanooga can keep the other Illinois players in check, it opens up the potential for an upset.
Illinois guard Alfonso Plummer was held to just 2-for-12 shooting in their last matchup, and that allowed Indiana to pull off a shocking victory over the Illini in the Big Ten tournament. Another poor shooting day from Plummer, and the Mocs will be on their way to the Round of 32.
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14. Upset Alert: (1) Arizona
History is working against the best team in the Pac-12. It’s been a joy to see what first-year coach Tommy Lloyd has done with his club. However, Lloyd is working to become the first-ever rookie coach to lead his team to an NCAA Tournament title. Arizona is also hoping to become the first Pac-12 team to win the national championship since 1997 — when Mike Bibby led the Wildcats of Arizona over the Wildcats of Kentucky in a thrilling overtime win.
Arizona is currently in its most vulnerable state with starting point guard Kerr Kriisa out with a hurt ankle. Kriisa suffered the injury late in a win over Stanford. He missed the team’s last two games, and it’s unclear if he’ll be able to return at any point in the tournament. Kriisa was an important cog for his leadership, three-point shooting, and playmaking. He led the team in three-pointers made and assists (Arizona finished first in the nation in assists per game).
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15. Bracket Buster: (14) Colgate
Wisconsin’s late season struggles have opened up the door for a potential upset. Waiting for the Badgers in the first round of the tournament is Colgate, winners of the Patriot League. Colgate has made the tournament three years in a row. In their first two appearances, the Raiders took the 2-seed Tennessee Volunteers (2019) and 3-seed Arkansas Razorbacks (2021) to the brink. They return with a veteran team that can really get it done from beyond the arc.
Colgate was second in the country in three-point percentage, shooting a blistering 40.3-percent from beyond the arc. They can put up points in bunches, and potentially shock a top-seeded team on the right night. The Raiders haven’t dropped a game since January 28th, and had no trouble getting through the Patriot League tournament. If the threes are falling, Colgate will take down Wisconsin in one of the biggest “upsets” of the opening weekend.
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16. Upset Alert: (11) Michigan
Filling out an NCAA tournament bracket is supposed to be fun, and it isn’t that much fun to pencil in all of the favorites each round. However, be wary of the teams from big conferences going up against dangerous opponents. Michigan will inevitably be picked by several pundits to go far. They boast a solid roster led by center Hunter Dickinson which features both experience and talent.
However, Michigan ended the year on a sour note after a rotten showing in the Big Ten tournament. Yes, Juwan Howard is back, but the team finished the year just 7-7 and never quite found their footing. Colorado State, on the other hand, have an established identity behind All-American candidate David Roddy. If Dickinson is unable to expose the size matchup over Colorado State’s front court, it’s going to be a long, disappointing day for the Wolverines.
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17. Bracket Buster: (7) Murray St. or (10) San Francisco
This is a bit of a cop out, but we have to give recognition to this potentially thrilling 7-10 matchup between two clubs. Murray State eviscerated the Ohio Valley Conference en route to its third 30-win season in school history. The Racers finished 18-0 in conference play and finished in the top-20 in the nation in both points scored and points allowed. Murray State features three scorers averaging over 13 PPG, including knockdown shooter Tevin Brown who has made 348 triples in his college career.
San Francisco is no slouch, either. The Dons finished 40th in scoring and were one of three West Coast Conference teams to make the field (Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s). They played their WCC opponents well all year long, and were especially adept at defending the three-point line. Only 13 teams in the nation held opponents to a worse three-point percentage than the Dons. Whichever team is able to survive this battle could make a serious run the rest of the way. Watch out, Kentucky.
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18. Upset Alert: (3) Purdue
In the tournament, be wary of any team that played poorly on the road in the regular season. It’s no secret Matt Painter’s club relishes any chance they get to play at Mackey Arena. Purdue went 16-1 at home this season with its only loss coming back in January in a tightly-contested affair against Wisconsin. At home, Purdue has proven to be one of the elite teams in the nation. However, they haven’t had nearly as much success playing away from their home floor.
The Boilermakers went 5-5 in road games including a handful of blowout losses. It’s peculiar to see a team littered with veterans struggle so mightily on the road. Though they did pull a favorable draw with their first two games being in Milwaukee, it’s difficult to trust this team in any arena other than Mackey. They haven’t won a true road game in a month.
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19. Bracket Buster: (9) TCU
TCU landed on the 9-line despite an 8-10 record in conference play. This is thanks to an impressive string of wins in the toughest conference in basketball. TCU knocked off Texas, Kansas, Texas Tech, and Iowa State, and added an out-of-conference win over tournament team LSU for good measure. This is the best team Jamie Dixon has had by far since leaving Pitt for Fort Worth.
Any team that was able to navigate through the rugged Big 12 should be considered a viable threat to make it deep in the tournament. TCU went up against some of the top schools in the nation, and proved that they belong in that group. Going up against Seton Hall in their first matchup, TCU projects favorably versus the Pirates. TCU is the more sound defensive team and boasts more talent in the backcourt. If the Horned Frogs make it through, they face a potential matchup against the Arizona Wildcats, who would presumably still be without starting point guar Kerr Kriisa.
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20. Upset Alert: (1) Baylor
The defending national champions could be facing an early exit in ’22. Of course, we know the team is far different structurally from the one that dominated the field last season. Baylor had the luxury of starting the same five every game last season, and watched four of those starters — Davion Mitchell, Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, and Mark Vital — leave last offseason. Credit to coach Scott Drew for once again having Baylor finish as a No. 1 seed, but this team is not nearly as talented as they were last year.
Additionally, Baylor has been bit by the injury bug this season. The team’s leading scorer, LJ Cryer, has played in one game since January 25th. Cryer is dealing with a foot injury, and is currently day-to-day. If the Bears aren’t fully healthy, it’s difficult to see them marching through a stacked East region which features North Carolina, St. Mary’s, UCLA, Kentucky and Purdue.
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